Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

[Momori]

12 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

NWH - $725k Thursday (+4% // +2%) 

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

That’s unexpected…

 

I’m thinking +170, +100, -58 for the weekend,

Don't think SB is going to be -58. TFA had better Sunday holds after December and it did -62 on SB. Probably closer to -65. 

[Legion Again]

I have more ambitions for Fri, let’s see 😋

[filmlover]

Worth mentioning that even if the Super Bowl causes big drops on Sunday we still have a 4-day holiday next weekend that might make up difference, especially if Uncharted ends up being the nonevent it's now looking to be.

[Jonwo]

In the case of Death on the Nile, OS will probably help as Agatha Christie tends to be popular.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Worth mentioning that even if the Super Bowl causes big drops on Sunday we still have a 4-day holiday next weekend that might make up difference, especially if Uncharted ends up being the nonevent it's now looking to be.

First a 9M+ 4day this wknd, then a 9M+ 4day next wknd 😎

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I have more ambitions for Fri, let’s see 😋

Works for me, my NWH prediction is highest of the Derby so it can make $8M this weekend if it wants 🤣

[Tokugennumataka]

Won't be surprised if next Sunday sees over 50% weekly jumps for pretty much all holdovers. 

[Mango]

Good for Spidey, I'm thinking $2m Fri, $3.9m Sat, $1.4m Sunday for a $7.3m weekend.

 

Also, I think No Way Home is gonna increase next weekend. If thanks to nothing more than studio numbers fuckery and drive-in's with Uncharted, but I don't think it'll honestly need either of those things. The next two weeks are it's final hurrah before sizable, direct competition hits. I see it like:

 

Feb 11-13: $7.3m/$759.1m

Feb 18-20: $7.5m/+ $1.5m Monday for $770.9m

Feb 25-27: $5.0m for $777m

 

Will likely drop 50%+ for Batman, and the spring has more competition so I imagine it will be under $1m weekends by the end of March. $785-790m or so final gross. If it gets close enough to $800m I could definitely see Sony doing a re-release with deleted scenes or something a week or two before Doctor Strange. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Mango

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Good for Spidey, I'm thinking $2m Fri, $3.9m Sat, $1.4m Sunday for a $7.3m weekend.

 

Also, I think No Way Home is gonna increase next weekend. If thanks to nothing more than studio numbers fuckery and drive-in's with Uncharted, but I don't think it'll honestly need either of those things. The next two weeks are it's final hurrah before sizable, direct competition hits. I see it like:

 

Feb 11-13: $7.3m/$759.1m

Feb 18-20: $7.5m/+ $1.5m Monday for $770.9m

Feb 25-27: $5.0m for $777m

 

Will likely drop 50%+ for Batman, and the spring has more competition so I imagine it will be under $1m weekends by the end of March. $790m or so final gross. If it gets close enough to $800m I could definitely see Sony doing a re-release with deleted scenes or something a week or two before Doctor Strange. 

March has almost completely cleared out the past few weeks aside from Batman (between Turning Red pivoting to a D+ exclusive and Downton Abbey being delayed to summer) so holds should be fine again once the initial impact of that movie wears off. The Lost City is the only non-Bruce Wayne March release that'll be making more than pennies.

[Torontofan]

seems like Spidey has clear run till batman? 

[Tokugennumataka]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

Good for Spidey, I'm thinking $2m Fri, $3.9m Sat, $1.4m Sunday for a $7.3m weekend.

 

Also, I think No Way Home is gonna increase next weekend. If thanks to nothing more than studio numbers fuckery and drive-in's with Uncharted, but I don't think it'll honestly need either of those things. The next two weeks are it's final hurrah before sizable, direct competition hits. I see it like:

 

Feb 11-13: $7.3m/$759.1m

Feb 18-20: $7.5m/+ $1.5m Monday for $770.9m

Feb 25-27: $5.0m for $777m

 

Will likely drop 50%+ for Batman, and the spring has more competition so I imagine it will be under $1m weekends by the end of March. $785-790m or so final gross. If it gets close enough to $800m I could definitely see Sony doing a re-release with deleted scenes or something a week or two before Doctor Strange. 

Think Sony will expand it right on March than wait for Strange, that is if they're gonna do it at all. Once the Batman calms down after a couple of weeks, they've got an empty March. Waiting for Strange is probably not a good idea as NWH will be around 6 months old at that point. 

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Think Sony will expand it right on March than wait for Strange, that is if they're gonna do it at all. Once the Batman calms down after a couple of weeks, they've got an empty March. Waiting for Strange is probably not a good idea as NWH will be around 6 months old at that point. 

 

Well they do have Morbius on April 1, so that kind of limits them a bit in terms of a potential box office boosting re-issue

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Well they do have Morbius on April 1, so that kind of limits them a bit in terms of a potential box office boosting re-issue

Re-releases or expansions are usually front loader and they can make most of the potential gross from those 2 weeks before Morbius. And on the week of Morbius release, they can do some double features with NWH extended. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://deadline.com/2022/02/death-on-the-nile-previews-rack-up-1-1m-marry-me-525k-1234931651/

 

Hidden away in the Deadline article is that Blacklight (that Liam Neeson action movie nobody cares about #272) brought in 225K on Thursday....okay.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

https://deadline.com/2022/02/death-on-the-nile-previews-rack-up-1-1m-marry-me-525k-1234931651/

 

Hidden away in the Deadline article is that Blacklight (that Liam Neeson action movie nobody cares about #272) brought in 225K on Thursday....okay.

How much longer until he finally joins Bruce Willis in Straight-to-VOD Hell?

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

How much longer until he finally joins Bruce Willis in Straight-to-VOD Hell?

He needs to retire these movies. He’s a great actor, and needs to distance himself from it finally.

[Eric Loves Rey]

53 minutes ago, DAJK said:

He needs to retire these movies. He’s a great actor, and needs to distance himself from it finally.

Rumor has it (unconfirmed of course) that Bruce Willis, while not officially diagnosed with dementia, has been going through some bad mental and memory issues over the past couple of years that could lead into something worse. Him doing cheap VOD action movies where he shows up on set for a day and gets a fat paycheck is probably the best he can do as an actor and helps support his family.

 

https://okmagazine.com/p/bruce-willis-truce-family-fading-on-set-memory-loss/

[DAJK]

Just now, Eric Poirot said:

Rumor has it (unconfirmed of course) that Bruce Willis, while not officially diagnosed with dementia, has been going through some bad mental and memory issues over the past couple of years that could lead into something worse. Him doing cheap VOD action movies where he shows up on set for a day and gets a fat paycheck is probably the best he can do as an actor and helps support his family.

 

https://okmagazine.com/p/bruce-willis-truce-family-fading-on-set-memory-loss/

That’s really sad if true  I was speaking more about Neeson, but whatever works best for them I guess

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, DAJK said:

That’s really sad if true  I was speaking more about Neeson, but whatever works best for them I guess

Oh. In that case, I don't think Liam Neeson has an excuse outside of he just likes making these kinds of action movies and/or that's the only thing producers and studio execs will say yes to. But I think he will still get one or two more interesting roles that takes greater advantage of his talents