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Eric Burnett

THE BATMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 134M OW DOM, 258.2M WW | Biggest WB opening since BvS. First non Disney-affiliated 100M OW since 2018

By Eric Burnett, in Numbers and Data

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, iHeartJames said:

Day one? Fuck that I’m going on set as Pattinson’s fluffer. No limp dicks on my watch!

iHeartJames, you are doing a great service to your country and the world.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

Thanks. As I say, I'm not trying to indict the entire tracking community, just this mentality that pervades among certain users who try to interpret the tracking data.

 

What I'm really advocating for is a bit more humility in these users about the potential shortcomings of presales-driven predictions, and perhaps a bit more bravery (where's it's warranted and appropriate) from the general userbase in spite of the presales data. I don't think I've seen really anyone outside of @excel1 (or at least, anyone loud) breaking the mold when it comes to The Batman OW predictions — the presales data seems to have made everyone afraid of going against the grain.

 

 

Really? To my knowledge, I've never posted in a DC thread on this forum, nor have I ever even mentioned a DC movie in a post outside of this thread. The only DC movies I've seen are Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, and (regrettably) The Dark Knight Rises. I doubt I'll be seeing The Batman, at least in theaters. I am not a DC fan, at all. Where does this baseless accusation come from?

And everyone in the tracking thread is going to be closer to the previews than Excel who made the "brave" predictions of 35M, so I don't get what your problem is exactly? Are we just supposed to ignore data and go off of vibes? 

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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

 

The virus probably ended up killing this project. The story for that iteration of the movie didn't sound all that great anyway.

Still, with the successes of both Sonic and Uncharted, I have a hunch that someone is going to give this another shot.

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX 3D
The Batman 3,553 171,959   158,279 13,680 4,765 0
Uncharted 3,196 44,220 -37.10% 44,103 117 9 0
Dog 2,985 37,391 -10.70% 37,327 64 0 0
Spider-Man: NWH 2,360 25,101 -6.48% 25,015 86 0 37
Death on the Nile 2,226 24,861 -19.13% 24,815 46 0 0
Studio 666 2,027 9,113 -69.92% 9,104 9 0 0
Jackass Forever 1793 16578 -44.52% 16558 20 0 0
Sing 2 1,581 11,270 -23.89% 11,214 56 0 21
Marry Me 936 5,641 -77.10% 5,641 0 0 0
Hotel Transylvania 4 759 5,942   5,933 9 0 0
Cyrano 712 7,789 -14.79% 7,789 0 0 0
Scream 694 4,763 -55.04% 4,744 19 0 0
The Cursed 424 2,319 -81.66% 2,316 3 0 0
Blacklight 350 2,275 -77.89% 2,275 0 0 0
Bheemla Nayak 247 1,832 -43.11% 1,832 0 0 0
Worst Person  239 1,361 -69.49% 1,361 0 0 0
Jhund 222 1,934   1,934 0 0 0
Moonfall 213 1,074 -82.47% 1,074 0 0 0
Encanto 209 1,016 -67.63% 1,007 9 0 9
Oscar Nom Shorts 232 2,020 -34.44% 2,020 0 0 0

 

US showtime sample for 3/4/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Batman- 171,959

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340 TC)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409)

 

Future Releases

 

T-2 Week Previews

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - 2,855 (1,454)

 - Jackass Forever - 2,779 (1,845)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 - House of Gucci - 2,045 (1,402)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Lost City (Fandango EA 3/19) - 76 (75)

Lost City (Girls Night Out 3/22) - 116 (115)

Lost City (Date Night Out 3/23) - 400 (398)

Lost City (Thursday Only) - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - No Way Home - 5,529 (793)

 

Three days of early shows for Lost City... 😒

Crossposting. NWH was barely touched. Combined with the amazing vertical from wed and I think a 30% drop or better is likely. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't want to get into a long debate about the perceptions of the Tracking thread coz, like, we all got our own personal opinions, right?  Shaped by our own experiences and what not. I do generally agree with being more open to outside-the-box thinking, sure. 

 

What I will say is that I do tend to think that a LOT of the more common complaints about Tracking thread could be lessened if folks just used the WeekDAY threads a little more to talk about various predictions/thoughts about the upcoming weekend releases and the resulting discussion around all of that and didn't treat the Tracking thread as a General Box Office Conversation Thread. 

 

I ***know*** this thought of mine isn't shared by everyone, and that's fine. Like, folks see posts about data in the Tracking thread and it is absolutely natural to want to discuss it in that thread. Which will then lead folks to want to discuss that discussion.

 

I just think that during the pandemic the amount of conversation in WeekDAY threads plummeted (for fairly obvious reasons) and some of it floated over to the Tracking thread as that was one of the few threads that could see semi-constant chatter and new things to talk about thanks to an increase in tracking activity. 

Hmm, I thought the weekday threads were for talking about weekday box office of films, not for discussion of presales for the upcoming weekend. Idk, I feel like discussing how we might interpret people's data is a pretty good use of the tracking thread. The issue is when people overreact to and misinterpret to individual predictions and then ascribe them to "the tracking thread" rather than the user.

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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

And everyone in the tracking thread is going to be closer to the previews than Excel who made the "brave" predictions of 35M, so I don't get what your problem is exactly? Are we just supposed to ignore data and go off of vibes? 

Intuition should absolutely play a part in a good box office analyst's predictions, yes; you can't just let your predictions be ruled by the presales data, to the same extent that you can't just ignore it entirely.

 

And I'm not suggesting that excel's predictions were rooted in anything other than guesswork and hope, I was just pointing out that he was one of few people, and the only really vocal person, that went against the general presales-driven expectations/consensus for The Batman, even though I think there was decent enough reason to do so in this case.

 

We haven't gotten any substantial numbers in yet, so let's see how the weekend plays out, but regardless of the outcome of this weekend I stand by my point earlier that relying as heavily on the presales data as some do is eventually going to come back to bite people in their predictions.

Edited by hw64
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted

Ah yes, “intuition.” If you want people to take that seriously (as a force which consistently outperforms more analytic approaches, rather than sometimes beating them for purely stochastic reasons) then I guess you could always go and drub people in the derby :) 

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