THE BATMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 134M OW DOM, 258.2M WW | Biggest WB opening since BvS. First non Disney-affiliated 100M OW since 2018

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Also, The Batman is more than likely going to outgross BVS (330) despite opening lower.. Joker as well (335m). Hard to say how much higher it can go (probably not 400m, likely 350-360 with TDKR legs) but it would still be 3rd highest Batman film (TDKR did 448m). Not that bad, when you look at it that way, right? Yeah, actual attendance is down but the numerics are same range

 

WB films over 350m

1. Dark Knight-533.7m

2. TDKR- 448m

3. Wonder Woman- 412m

4. Deathly Hollows 2- 381m

 

(American Sniper did 350.1m)

[Derpity]

Spoiler alert: The Batman sequel will open to $200m

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Because their expectations were wrong lol, you can hope a movie does more for sure but when nothing is pointing to

those numbers then I don’t know what you want to happen. It’s not as if preview night was looking like 35m was happening or something. Being disappointed is fine but for me I can’t be disappointed when I keep my expectations in check and follow the numbers. 

Well, I think the relationship between expectations and disappointment is a lot more complicated than that. You update your expectations as you get new info. Sometime your near release expectations are below a more zoomed out historical view, sometimes they are above it. For instance, consider something which some years out you might have expected 220M for but when you get close it looks more like it will do 150M. Then it does 160M.   
 

We can say that this actually beat expectations (focusing on near term ones) or that it fell far short of them (focusing on farther out ones). You’re probably left with a sense of “this hit my expectations but I was expecting it to do disappointing.”

Edited March 5, 2022 by Villain Legion

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Derpity said:

Spoiler alert: The Batman sequel will open to $200m

Doubt 

 

but Will be big for sure

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Ultimately reboots will always have some sort of audience trepidation embedded in them no matter how popular the IP is like Batman and Spider-Man. With this Batman I don't think there's anything really the marketing team could have done to sell this version more. Unlike Homecoming as well this Batman doesn't have the benefit of being attached to the most successful movie series as well. 

[ThomasNicole]

And why anyone should compare The Batman with TDK or TDKR? 

 

Yeah that movies were massive but seems like some people want to forget both comes from a mere 372M grosser reboot. 

 

This is a another reboot, the third one in the past decade, it's a 3 hour noir movie , so let's treat it correctly instead of demanding it to perform closer to previous sequels, it's getting ridiculous and annoying.

 

There's no "everyone throwing 150M predictions", since the very first day of presales tracking thread suggests it could be in 120-130M range, the last days reinforce that, and now it's probably what we're gonna get it.

[excel1]

9 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Well, I think the relationship between expectations and disappointment is a lot more complicated than that. You update your expectations as you get new info. Sometime your near release expectations are below a more zoomed out historical view, sometimes they are above it. For instance, consider something which some years out you might have expected 220M for but when you get close it looks more like it will do 150M. Then it does 160M.   
 

We can say that this actually beat expectations (focusing on near term ones) or that it fell far short of them (focusing on farther out ones). You’re probably left with a sense of “this hot my expectations but I was expecting it to do disappointing.”

 

Every studio guesstimates a projects potential gross prior to the green light. They simply depend on successful strategies for film quality and release (marketing, release date) to reach that potential. No doubt The Batman had higher potential than this and it is difficult to tell where they hiccuped at any stage of the quality and release strategies. There is simply an issue with older audiences ATM.

[BruiseCruise]

I still contend WB made a huge mistake by giving Reeves that much power that all other DC movie characters won't come into his verse, if you do some multiverse shenanigans and have Joaquin's joker show up in Pattinson's Gotham in one of the sequels that would have easily been a 200m+ OW

[cax16]

11 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Well, I think the relationship between expectations and disappointment is a lot more complicated than that. You update your expectations as you get new info. Sometime your near release expectations are below a more zoomed out historical view, sometimes they are above it. For instance, consider something which some years out you might have expected 220M for but when you get close it looks more like it will do 150M. Then it does 160M.   
 

We can say that this actually beat expectations (focusing on near term ones) or that it fell far short of them (focusing on farther out ones). You’re probably left with a sense of “this hot my expectations but I was expecting it to do disappointing.”

I get what you’re saying but for me I guess cause I follow DC so closely and see how big Marvels gotten I understand things are just so different now then they were when Nolan’s movies were out. We can always look at past comps etc and try to gauge how this stuff “should or could” work out but right now, especially with DC movies I just don’t think those comparisons work anymore. 
 

The last time Batman was in a movie was with the the rest of the JL and that opened to under a 100m. That opened my eyes to things a lot more and now it’s every movie having to stand on its own and hope it can build an audience for future movies, there’s always gonna be those hardcore Batman or Superman fans that can carry a box office so far but the trust from the GA isn’t there anymore. 

[excel1]

Just now, BruiseCruise said:

I still contend WB made a huge mistake by giving Reeves that much power that all other DC movie characters won't come into his verse, if you do some multiverse shenanigans and have Joaquin's joker show up in Pattinson's Gotham in one of the sequels that would have easily been a 200m+ OW

 

Well, IDK. The reaction to this film and its characters is outstanding across the board. The returns of any of the surviving main characters in future films will almost certainly help interest. The film no doubt is going to do the job of building brand loyalty among modern audiences at a very high level. The fame of Batman's characters has always meant that the right movie could justify its own universe. A Kravitz-starring Catwoman film would likely do quite well. Same for Farrell's Penguin TV show. 

 

Obviously if they found a way to bring in Jaoquin Joker, hype would beyond blow up, but I think the future is pretty bright. 

[Legion Again]

Really just going around in circles now. I want to summarize my thoughts concisely and move on:  

1) It’s seemed (to me and others) for quite some time that this would likely do 110-140ish range. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that it is meeting reasonable expectations and is therefore not a disappointment.

2) Those expectations came from a place of “Batman’s ow historically are huge, but reboot fatigue, brand damage, shifting marketplace popularity etc etc will be a drag on it and lead to a weak-for-Batman OW.” So even if hitting that range isn’t a surprise it does serve to confirm that those factors are really at play, and they did lead to a low-for-Batman OW. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that meeting reasonable near-term expectations is disappointing in the historical view (just like say FFH).    
 

Even if we reach strong factual agreement (which I think we are able to — and largely have) people can keep talking past each other and disagreeing about the best philosophical/emotional framework for interpreting those facts. I don’t want to get on people’s case for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are just what I expected so I’m not disappointed at all.” But I also don’t want to see people criticized for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are disappointing to me even though there were good reasons to expect them.”     
 

Live and let live.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Villain Legion

[AnDr3s]

5 hours ago, AnDr3s said:

can we talk that this is robert pattinson 4th biggest thursday previews

the fact that the last twilight previews were 240k less than TDKR is insane

[Legion Again]

Tl;dr It is okay for people to have high expectations and be disappointed relatively more often, rather than striving to have low expectations and be disappointed less often. That’s a personal choice, not an attack on a movie 

[lorddemaxus]

33 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

(American Sniper did 350.1m)

They should make more movies out of this Chris Kyle IP.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Well, IDK. The reaction to this film and its characters is outstanding across the board. The returns of any of the surviving main characters in future films will almost certainly help interest. The film no doubt is going to do the job of building brand loyalty among modern audiences at a very high level. The fame of Batman's characters has always meant that the right movie could justify its own universe. A Kravitz-starring Catwoman film would likely do quite well. Same for Farrell's Penguin TV show. 

 

Obviously if they found a way to bring in Jaoquin Joker, hype would beyond blow up, but I think the future is pretty bright. 

Yep, sequel will do well, this movie is finding its fans and creating a reputation for Pattinson Batman. I expect gradual growth for however many movies this series goes on for, as long as the quality remains steady. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Legion Again]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

Sequel will do well, this movie is finding its fans and creating a reputation for Pattinson Batman. 

Also this lol. Batman 2 and 3 can make a play at a normal-for-Batman (I.e. incredibly strong) opening. Although that would be like 250M+, so not really sure.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They should make more movies out of this Chris Kyle IP.

Clint cinematic universe 

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Haven’t both Alien and Predator shown (more than once) recently that not as many people care about their franchises as they think? 

Prometheus did some pretty big numbers. Even Covenant did like $240m I wanna say.

 

And the reason that Covenant and maybe the recent Predator movie(s) haven't done well is because they created very divisive movies that a lot of the audience didn't like. THAT is the big problem. I think the brand itself is still a draw. Just make it good!

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, ddddeeee said:

Evil Dead 2013 and Don't Breathe are both great. Here for whatever Alvarez directs.

What about Girl in the Spider's Web? I still can't wrap my head around what they were thinking there

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Also this lol. Batman 2 and 3 can make a play at a normal-for-Batman (I.e. incredibly strong) opening. Although that would be like 250M+, so not really sure.

Doubt it. It will be gradual growth (like 120 to 150) unless they figure out some way to really boost the buzz (i.e. bringing in Phoenix or something). Still, that's enough for a healthy successful franchise even if it's well off the heights that Batman has done previously.