2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Elemental limited release?

I was confused about that, but no.. I was referring to his box office predictions.

[WorkingonaName]

On 1/7/2023 at 4:35 PM, WorkingonaName said:

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.1B

2. Indiana Jones And the Dial Of Destiny: $1.030B

3. The Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 3: $950M

4. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $850M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning part 1: $850M

6. Dune 2: $800M

7. The Flash: $750M

8. The Little Mermaid: $700M

9. The Marvel: $654M

10. Barbie: $616M

 Update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.1B

2. The Flash: $1B

3. The Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 3: $900M

4. Indiana Jones And the Dial Of Destiny: $900M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning part 1: $850M

6. Dune 2: $750M

7. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

8. The Little Mermaid: $650M

9. Barbie: $620M

10. The Marvels: $600M

 

[Starphanluke]

17 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Is Campea right? Or is he wrong like usual?

 

 

Man I can't stand him.

 

But to take the question at face value: I still think Indy might be slightly oversold at this point. Idk. It strikes me as that thing everyone sees as a surefire win, but it doesn't seem to be stirring much excitement right now. 

 

And I also still maintain Transformers is being underpredicted by everyone, ESPECIALLY worldwide. I think that movie has a lot of global appeal everyone is missing. I know trailer views and whatnot aren't the end-all, be-all for tracking, but it does feel significant that Transformers gained more traction than Indy and Guardians when the trailers released on the *same day.*

 

I honestly have no idea what to make of The Flash at this point.

[kayumanggi]

Deadline

 

All movies during the 12th weekend of 2023 are expected to gross an estimated $113.1M per industry figures, which is +38% from a year ago ($82M) when Paramount’s Lost City opened to $30.4M, but 24% off from the same weekend in 2019 ($148.8M) which is when Universal opened Jordan Peele’s Us to $71.1M.

[stripe]

On 2/27/2023 at 2:34 PM, stripe said:

 

Two days to close February and the cumulative gross is at around 480M, so 50M under my predictions. Some films slightly underperformed (AMQ, MMLD, Knock at the Cabin) and not many good surprises.
Still, over February 2022.

 

Let's predict March. I will try to be conservative.

 

Openers (around 395M)
Creed 3: 90M 

Demos Slayer: 15M

Operation Fortune: 10M

Scream 6: 90M

65: 30M

Champions: 15M

Shazam!: 70M

John Wick 4: 55M

Dungeons & Dragons: 10M

Good Person: 5M

Other openers: 15M

 

Holdovers (around 160M)

AMQ: 50M

Cocaine Bear: 35M

Jesus Revolution: 40M

Avatar 2: 10M

Puss in Boots 2: 10M

Rest: 15M

 

Cumulative gross for March: 550M. A bit under 589M grossed in March 2022, when The Batman exploded.

 

Time to look at March predictions and post April's

March slightly overperformed the numbers I guessed. With 5 days left, it has already grossed 563M+ and looks to finish with more than 625M. Over last year's March. The most encouraging sign is that the top grosser (Creed) only accounted for 24% of the full month gross. Way better than last year (The Batman's 57%) and in line with prepandemic levels.

 

JW and Creed exceeded my predictions, while Shazam! underperformed. I was also a bit high with AMQ.

 

Let's predict April. Conservative mood.

 

Openers (around 420M)

Super Mario Bros: 250M
AIR: 25M
Pope's Exorcist: 20M

Renfield: 40M
Suzume: 10M

Evil Dead Rise: 35M

Covenant: 15M
Are you there God? 10M

Rest of openers: 15M

 

Holdovers (230M)

D&D: 90M

JW4: 80M

Scream6: 15M
Creed3: 15M
Shazam!: 10M

Rest; 20M
 

Cumulative gross for April: 650M, with chances of a few breakouts. Last year the gross was 571M, with Sonic2 leading. We are approaching prepandemic levels.

 

[dxmatrixdt]

2013 had 35 100M movies, with a bunch of others that should have been there.  With Shazam out, Dungeons and Dragons, Equalizer 3, Ninja Turtles and The Exorcist will have to replace it to keep the chances of the record alive.

[stripe]

2 hours ago, dxmatrixdt said:

2013 had 35 100M movies, with a bunch of others that should have been there.  With Shazam out, Dungeons and Dragons, Equalizer 3, Ninja Turtles and The Exorcist will have to replace it to keep the chances of the record alive.

If we finish with 30 films over 100M it will be already more than great.

 

Sure bets (17 films)

AMQ
Creed 3
Scream 6

JW4

Super Mario Bros

GotG3

Fast X

Little Mermaid

Across the Spiderverse

Transformers

The Flash

Indiana Jones

Mission Impossible

Dune 2

The Marvels

Hunger Games prequel

Aquaman 2

 

Strong chances (12 films): I think all of them but 3-4 will make it.

Dungeons and Dragons

Elemental

Ruby Gillman

Barbie

Oppenheimer

The Meg 2

TMNT

Trolls 3

Wish

Wonka

Migration

 

Then, there are other movies that can very well reach the mark. I would say 2-3 of them

Blue Beetle

Equalizer 3

Kraven the Hunter

The Color Purple

Boogeyman

Haunted Mansion

Strays

No hard feelings

The Nun 2

The Exorcist

 

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

TOP 3 March Openers Every Year Since 2001

 

2001

26.5M | SPY KIDS

20.1M | THE MEXICAN

18.5M | EXIT WOUNDS

 

2002 | first March to have a 40M OW | first March to have three movies open to 30M+

46.3M | ICE AGE

32.5M | BLADE II

30.1M | PANIC ROOM

 

2003

31.1M | BRINGING DOWN THE HOUSE

17.1M | TEARS OF THE SUN

16.5M | CRADLE 2 THE GRAVE

 

2004

29.4M | SCOOBY-DOO: MONSTERS UNLEASHED

28.1M | STARSKY & HUTCH

26.7M | DAWN OF THE DEAD

 

2005

36.0M | ROBOTS

35.1M | THE RING II

30.6m | THE PACIFIER

 

2006 | first March to have a 60M OW

68.0M | ICE AGE: THE MELTDOWN

29.0M | INSIDE MAN

25.6M | V FOR VENDETTA

 

2007 | first March to have a 70M OW

70.9M | 300

39.7M | WILD HOGS

33.0M | BLADES OF GLORY

 

2008

45.0M | HORTON HEARS A WHO!

35.9M | 10,000 B.C.

24.1M | 21

 

2009 | first March to have two movies open to 50M+

59.3M | MONSTERS VS. ALIENS

55.2M | WATCHMEN

24.6M | KNOWING

 

2010 | first March to have a 100M OW

116.1M | ALICE IN WONDERLAND

43.7M | HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON

22.1M | DIARY OF A WIMPY KID

 

2011

38.1M | RANGO

35.6M | BATTLE LOS ANGELES

23.8M | DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: RODRICK RULES

 

2012 | first March to have a 150M OW | first March to have two movies open to 70M+

152.5M | THE HUNGER GAMES

70.2M | THE LORAX

36.3M | 22 JUMP STREET

 

2013 | first March to have three movies open to 40M+

79.1M | OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

43.6M | THE CROODS

40.5M | G.I. JOE: RETALIATION

 

2014

54.6M | DIVERGENT

45.0M | 300: RISE OF AN EMPIRE

43.7M | NOAH

 

2015 | first March to have three movies open to 50M+

67.9M | CINDERELLA

52.3M | INSURGENT

52.1M | HOME

 

2016 | first March to have a 160M OW

166.0M | BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

75.1M | ZOOTOPIA

29.0M | ALLEGIANT

 

2017 | first March to have a 170M OW | first March to have two movies open to 80M+ | first March to have three movies open to 60M+

174.8M | BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

88.4M | LOGAN

61.0M | KONG: SKULL ISLAND

 

2018

41.8M | READY PLAYER ONE

33.1M | A WRINKLE IN TIME

28.1M | PACIFIC RIM: UPRISING

 

2019

153.4M | CAPTAIN MARVEL

71.1M | US

46.0M | DUMBO

 

2020

39.1M | ONWARD

28.2M | THE INVISIBLE MAN

9.2M | BLOODSHOT

 

2021

8.5M | RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON

6.8M | NOBODY

3.8M | CHAOS WALKING

 

2022

134.0M | THE BATMAN

30.5M | THE LOST CITY

18.0M | JUJUTSU KAISEN 0: THE MOVIE

 

2023

73.8M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

58.4M | CREED III
44.4M | SCREAM VI

[kayumanggi]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:15 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 17 - 19 / $91,416,064

2022 / Mar 18 - 20 / $83,455,041

 

WINS

2023: 9 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 24 - 26 / $116,200,017

2022 / Mar 25 - 27 / $82,040,448

 

WINS

2023: 10 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:23 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $206.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $130.4 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $079.1 M | SCREAM VI

05 | $059.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

 

06 | $046.4 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

07 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

08 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

09 | $034.2 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | $032.5 M | MISSING

 

11 | $032.1 M | PLANE

12 | $026.0 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

13 | $023.7 M | 65

14 | $017.4 M | PATHAAN

15 | $015.0 M | TITANIC

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $210.6 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $142.9 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $092.2 M | SCREAM VI

05 | $090.8 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

 

06 | $062.8 M | COCAINE BEAR

07 | $049.7 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

08 | $048.3 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

09 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

10 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

11 | $032.5 M | MISSING

12 | $032.1 M | PLANE

13 | $028.8 M | 65

14 | $026.0 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

15 | $017.5 M | PATHAAN

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

[stripe]

April schedule looks stronger and stronger with every new day. AIR, Renfield and Evil Dead already receiving solid reviews. SMB presales on steroids at this moment. New wide releases anounced/confirmed (Sisu, Nefarious). Some prestige films with good early WOM (Chevalier, Beau is Afraid)...

Quite confident now with 700M agregated gross for the month.

[kayumanggi]

On 3/31/2023 at 6:40 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 24 - 26 / $116,200,017

2022 / Mar 25 - 27 / $82,040,448

 

WINS

2023: 10 weekends

2022: 2 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 31 - Apr 02 / $97,877,297

2022 / Apr 01 - Apr 03 / $83,007,169

 

WINS

2023: 11 weekends

2022: 02 weekends

Edited April 9, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

On 3/31/2023 at 6:48 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $210.6 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $142.9 M | CREED III

03 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

04 | $092.2 M | SCREAM VI

05 | $090.8 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

 

06 | $062.8 M | COCAINE BEAR

07 | $049.7 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

08 | $048.3 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

09 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

10 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

11 | $032.5 M | MISSING

12 | $032.1 M | PLANE

13 | $028.8 M | 65

14 | $026.0 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

15 | $017.5 M | PATHAAN

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $212.6 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $150.5 M | CREED III

03 | $137.3 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | $113.3 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

05 | $100.5 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | $064.0 M | COCAINE BEAR

08 | $055.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

09 | $052.6 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMOMNG THIEVES

10 | $051.3 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

12 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

13 | $032.5 M | MISSING

14 | $032.1 M | PLANE

15 | $031.2 M | 65

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

[Webslinger]

Whoops... I had a massive brain fart and accidentally posted in the wrong thread. My bad!

 

To actually get on topic, I've enjoyed seeing a consistent series of strong openings in the last couple months, all capped off by the gargantuan launch for Super Mario Bros this weekend. It's nice to be getting back to having a series of strong performers instead of the pattern of one big movie running the show with no significant competitors for weeks on end.

Edited April 10, 2023 by Webslinger

[kayumanggi]

The year has passed 2B.

 

$2,090,382,196 / 194 movies

[stripe]

April month to date gross: 368M with 20 more days to go. This number is in line or even better than prepandemic Aprils.

[Juby]

On 12/28/2022 at 2:33 PM, Juby said:

Okay, alright. Here is my 2023 forecast:

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
domestic: $450 million / overseas: $690 million / worldwide: $1.14 billion

 

2. The Little Mermaid (2023)
domestic: $350 million / overseas: $650 million / worldwide: $1 billion

 

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
domestic: $290 million / overseas: $670 million / worldwide: $960 million

 

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1
domestic: $295 million / overseas: $605 million / worldwide: $900 million

 

5. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
domestic: $405 million / overseas: $425 million / worldwide: $830 million

 

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
domestic: $265 million / overseas: $410 million / worldwide: $675 million <--- LOL 

 

7. The Marvels
domestic: $270 million / overseas: $400 million / worldwide: $670 million

 

8. Dune: Part Two
domestic: $225 million / overseas: $440 million / worldwide: $665 million

 

9. Fast X
domestic: $160 million / overseas: $500 million / worldwide: $660 million

 

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
domestic: $250 million / overseas: $305 million / worldwide: $555 million

 

 

At 11th I've got Oppenheimer with similiar numbers to Dunkirk in 2017. I've no idea how to predict Mario Bros. or Elementals because these are not good times for an animated films. My 1st is Indy, I wrote about him a few words some time ago: 

My 2nd is Mermaid which I believe have a potential to score big (maybe $1b ww? maybe $350-400m dom?), maybe as big as live-action The Jungle Book and Aladdin. The 3rd I believe will be Aquaman with some drops compared to the first one (but still big thanks to his new December release date). The 4th will be the new M:I (fingers crossed!), the 5th GotG3 (after this year I don't think it will be bigger domestic than Doctor Strange 2 and much bigger than Thor: Love and Thunder OS), at 6th I have the new Ant-Man (some increases from Ant-Man and the Wasp), 7th The Marvels (domestic drop similiar to the first film as Wakanda Forever has to the first Black Panther, overseas - a little bit more than Wakanda because the first Captain Marvel film was bigger OS than the first BP) later I got Dune 2 which should benefit after all the Oscars for the first film and no HBO Max release at the day 1 (probably after +60 days in this case), 9th will be F10 with another drop in this too-long franchise, and the last one on my list is the new Spider-Man from Sony (it might've been even bigger if not full-packed summer). I don't see any big surprises next year (like TGM this year or NWH in 2021) and I don't think there'll be any big hit from China in 2023 (+$600m). Barbie, John Wick 4, Shazam !!, TF6 and Blue Beetle - all of'em I see in $400m ww range.

 

And what about The Flash You may ask? Until Warner drop some trailer. . .

It might be a huge hit next summer or be a spectacular bomb. I don't know yet.

 

 

Damn, Mario did break out  It should easily tops $450m domestic and $1.15b worldwide as a #1 movie dom and ww this year. I'll update my Top10 predictions before the summer season begins.

 

[belblazer]

Is there a thread for A24'S Talk to Me? The trailer was just released and it looks great

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, belblazer said:

Is there a thread for A24'S Talk to Me? The trailer was just released and it looks great

 

 

[kayumanggi]

On 4/9/2023 at 6:41 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Mar 31 - Apr 02 / $97,877,297

2022 / Apr 01 - Apr 03 / $83,007,169

 

WINS

2023: 11 weekends

2022: 02 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Apr 07 - Apr 09 / $205,106,577

2022 / Apr 08 - Apr 10 / $118,700,008

 

WINS

2023: 12 weekends

2022: 02 weekends