AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I know all the talk about what will be the breakout of the summer is on the weekend thread but I think that's better suited for this one. Anyways, I've said before that No Hard Feelings is gonna be the big breakout of the summer, but I think Oppenheimer can have some good legs in the late summer period if people respond well. Predicting a performance similar to Dunkirk. The grand winner of the summer will be Mission: Impossible since the last few films have improved in box office and have gotten increasingly better reviews. People love these movies and have faith in them being good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said: The grand winner of the summer will be Mission: Impossible How much are you predicting for it domestic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 $300 M for M:I domestically 31 minutes ago, Maggie said: How much are you predicting for it domestic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said: $300 M for M:I domestically I really don't know how a 7th movie can increase that much. WHY? The franchise has its fans and it's doing around 200M for years. It's not gonna increase that much imo. It has no reason to.... just because TG2 did insane numbers. it doesn't mean every TC movie will increase huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 @CaptainJackSparrow What didn't you agree with about my predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maggie said: I really don't know how a 7th movie can increase that much. WHY? The franchise has its fans and it's doing around 200M for years. It's not gonna increase that much imo. It has no reason to.... just because TG2 did insane numbers. it doesn't mean every TC movie will increase huge. Not cause of Top Gun but because of the active fandom this series has, the marketing has been smart so far (putting the stunt bts video in front of Avatar was genius) and if test screenings are to be believed it’s a fantastic film. That’s why I’m seeing it as the winner for international and domestic this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babz06 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) summer 2023 top 10 1) The Little Mermaid 2) SM Across the Spiderverse 3) MI Dead Reckoning 4) GOTG 3 5) Indiana Jones The Dial of Destiny 6) The Flash 7) Elemental 8). Fast X 9) Transformers Rise of the Beasts 10) Oppenheimer Edited April 22, 2023 by babz06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 i think Spiderverse is overpredicted , still niche, i have not seen a cartoon in cinema since toy story 2, so don't listen to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DisposedData Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 11 hours ago, Maggie said: I really don't know how a 7th movie can increase that much. WHY? The franchise has its fans and it's doing around 200M for years. It's not gonna increase that much imo. It has no reason to.... just because TG2 did insane numbers. it doesn't mean every TC movie will increase huge. Because MI has been increasing for year. I see no reason to assume that will stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AN9815 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 My predictions for summer 2023 (DOM only): 1. The Flash: $363m 2. The Little Mermaid: $359m 3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: $344m 4. Across the Spider-Verse: $321m 5. Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3: $295m 6. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One: $278m 7. Barbie: $272m 8. Elemental: $209m 9. Fast X: $160m 10. Oppenheimer: $141m 11. Transformers: Rise of the Beast: $135m 12. The Boogeyman: $80m 13. Blue Beetle: $75m 14. Insidious: The Red Door: $69m 15. No Hard Feelings: $67m 16. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: $62m 17. Haunted Mansion: $58m Late-May to Mid-July is insane considering all of the potential massive wildcards are placed there (Indiana Jones, Little Mermaid, Spider-Man, The Flash...). I have a feeling one of them will surprise and do something like +$450m DOM and other ones might then just underperform a bit because of it, I just don't know which one it'll be yet. The Little Mermaid will probably be well received by audiences and has the advantage of being a musical, like audiences expect from a Disney live action, however, it'll also receive massive backlash from certain people, it needs a massive overperformance in the US to reach a billion WW in my opinion. The Flash had always felt like a $200-250m movie to me but apparently it is pretty good, WB seems pretty confident and it will have multiple cameos so the sky is the limit, however, it has to deal with Ezra controversy and superhero fatigue. Indiana Jones could be a massive breakout, I'm just not seeing any hype for it, again this could change with rave reviews and great early buzz. Across the Spider-Verse will jump big from the first one but I think competition will hurt it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Top 5 of the Last Summer Seasons* 2022 01 | 718.7M TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 411.3M DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 376.9M JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 369.7M MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU 05 | 343.3M THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER 2019 01 | 858.4M AVENGERS: ENDGAME 02 | 543.6M THE LION KING 03 | 434.0M TOY STORY IV 04 | 390.5M SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME 05 | 355.6M ALADDIN 2018 01 | 678.8M | AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR 02 | 608.6M | INCREDIBLES II 03 | 417.7M | JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM 04 | 318.5M | DEADPOOL II 05 | 220.2M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT 2017 01 | 412.6M | WONDER WOMAN 02 | 389.8M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II 03 | 334.2M | SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING 04 | 264.6M | DESPICABLE ME III 05 | 188.0M | DUNKIRK 2016 01 | 486.3M | FINDING DORY 02 | 408.1M | CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR 03 | 368.4M | THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 04 | 325.1M | SUICIDE SQUAD 05 | 162.4M | JASON BOURNE *excluding 2021 and 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 So going by your predictions, summer 2023 will be more like 2016 - 2017 than 2018 - 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 On 4/21/2023 at 11:13 PM, Maggie said: I really don't know how a 7th movie can increase that much. WHY? The franchise has its fans and it's doing around 200M for years. It's not gonna increase that much imo. It has no reason to.... just because TG2 did insane numbers. it doesn't mean every TC movie will increase huge. 300M would not be a crazy jump, IMHO. MI6 grossed 220M in 2018. Adding inflation, continued exposure of all the saga in streaming services, Cruise's heat, and the part-of-a-finale boost, there is room for an important increase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 On 4/21/2023 at 2:40 PM, kayumanggi said: year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Apr 14 - Apr 16 / $147,039,572 2022 / Apr 15 - Apr 17 / $107,168,534 WINS 2023: 13 weekends 2022: 02 weekends year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Apr 21 - Apr 23 / $125,042,659 2022 / Apr 22 - Apr 24 / $93,502,811 WINS 2023: 14 weekends 2022: 02 weekends 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 On 4/21/2023 at 2:51 PM, kayumanggi said: 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 371.2 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 212.9 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 03 | 162.5 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 04 | 155.5 M | CREED III 05 | 107.2 M | SCREAM VI 06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN 07 | 076.2 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR 09 | 057.5 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS 10 | 052.0 M | JESUS REVOLUTION 11 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY 12 | 035.7 M | AIR 13 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN 14 | 032.5 M | MISSING 15 | 032.1 M | PLANE --- 1 - DISNEY 3 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 4 - UNIVERSAL 1 - WARNER BROS. 2 - OTHERS --- 01 | 300M movies 02 | 200M movies 05 | 100M movies 10 | 050M movies 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 447.0 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 213.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 03 | 170.6 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 04 | 155.9 M | CREED III 05 | 107.9 M | SCREAM VI 06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN 07 | 083.7 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR 09 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS 10 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION 11 | 043.2 M | AIR 12 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY 13 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN 14 | 032.5 M | MISSING 15 | 032.1 M | PLANE --- 1 - DISNEY 3 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 4 - UNIVERSAL 1 - WARNER BROS. 2 - OTHERS --- 01 | 400M movies 01 | 300M movies 02 | 200M movies 05 | 100M movies 10 | 050M movies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Since this thread started on may last year, how soon is it for a 2024 one? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) Double post Edited May 2, 2023 by stripe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 On 3/27/2023 at 12:59 PM, stripe said: Time to look at March predictions and post April's March slightly overperformed the numbers I guessed. With 5 days left, it has already grossed 563M+ and looks to finish with more than 625M. Over last year's March. The most encouraging sign is that the top grosser (Creed) only accounted for 24% of the full month gross. Way better than last year (The Batman's 57%) and in line with prepandemic levels. JW and Creed exceeded my predictions, while Shazam! underperformed. I was also a bit high with AMQ. Let's predict April. Conservative mood. Openers (around 420M) Super Mario Bros: 250M AIR: 25M Pope's Exorcist: 20M Renfield: 40M Suzume: 10M Evil Dead Rise: 35M Covenant: 15M Are you there God? 10M Rest of openers: 15M Holdovers (230M) D&D: 90M JW4: 80M Scream6: 15M Creed3: 15M Shazam!: 10M Rest; 20M Cumulative gross for April: 650M, with chances of a few breakouts. Last year the gross was 571M, with Sonic2 leading. We are approaching prepandemic levels. Time to recap my April predictions and look at May schedule Very happy to see another month overperforming my predictions thanks to SMB well over my conservative 250M and Air confirming there is room for this kind of films. I was also quite off with Renfield, and Air. In the end, April grossed 900M, reaching prepandemic levels and easily outgrossing 2022’s 571M. Unfortunately, some holdovers weren’t as strong as I hoped, especially D&D. Looking at May, conservative mood. Openers (700M) Guardians of the Galaxy 3: 300M Love Again: 10M Book Club 2: 30M Fool’s Paradise: 10M Hypnotic: 20M Knights of the Zodiac: 10M Fast X: 150M About my Father: 15M Kandahar: 10M Little Mermaid: 130M Rest: 20M Holdovers (130M) Mario Bros: 80M Evil Dead Rises: 15M Margaret: 15M Rest: 20M So cumulative gross for May: 830M, pretty close to last year’s 785M and a bit under prepandemic levels. Anyways, I have a feeling it can be a better figure: Guardians can gross more (tracking is slowly improving) and a few films can overperform (looking at Book Club, Hypnotic, Love Again, and About my father). 800M – standard 850M – solid 900M – great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 (edited) Dan Murrell posted his summer box office predictions. Some really bad takes here I think, but kind of interesting. Around 34 minutes in: : 1. Little Mermaid 2. Across the Spider-Verse 3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 4. Flash 5. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning 6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 7. Elemental 8. Fast X 9. Oppenheimer 10. Barbie Edited May 2, 2023 by poweranimals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) On 4/28/2023 at 7:57 PM, kayumanggi said: year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Apr 21 - Apr 23 / $125,042,659 2022 / Apr 22 - Apr 24 / $93,502,811 WINS 2023: 14 weekends 2022: 02 weekends year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Apr 28 - Apr 30 / $100,153,062 2022 / Apr 29 - May 01 / $66,904,036 WINS 2023: 15 weekends 2022: 02 weekends Edited May 12, 2023 by kayumanggi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
