2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[kayumanggi]

On 4/28/2023 at 8:05 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 447.0 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 213.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 170.6 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 155.9 M | CREED III

05 | 107.9 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | 083.7 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

09 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | 043.2 M | AIR

12 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

13 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

14 | 032.5 M | MISSING

15 | 032.1 M | PLANE

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

05 | 100M movies

10 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 496.0 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 213.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 177.0 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 156.1 M | CREED III

05 | 108.1 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | 089.0 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

09 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | 048.3 M | AIR

12 | 046.6 M | EVIL DEAD RISE

13 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

14 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

15 | 032.5 M | MISSING

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

05 | 100M movies

10 | 050M movies

[dxmatrixdt]

On 1/1/2023 at 3:47 AM, dxmatrixdt said:

1 - The Little Mermaid - 425

2 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - 400

3 - Indiana Jones 5 - 375

4 - Super Mario Bros. - 350 (+90)

5 - The Marvels - 300 (+20)

6 - Ant-Man 3 - 290 (+20)

7 - Aquaman 2 - 280 (+50)

8 - Mission: Impossible 7 - 270 (+20)

9 - Spider-Verse 2 - 260 (+20)

10 - The Flash - 230 (+40)

11 - Barbie - 220

12 - Fast X - 200

13 - Wonka - 180 (+20)

14 - Oppenheimer - 170 (+20)

15 - Shazam 2 - 170 (+10)

16 - John Wick 4 - 160 (+10)

17 - Transformers - 160 (-10)

18 - Elemental - 150

19 - Ghostbusters - 150

20 - Wish - 150

21 - Blue Beetle - 150

22 - Dune 2 - 150 (+20)

23 - The Meg 2 - 150 (+20)

24 - The Hunger Games - 140

25 - Migration - 130

26 - Trolls 3 - 130

27 - Haunted Mansion - 110

28 - Kraven the Hunter - 110

29 - Creed 3 - 110

30 - Scream 6 - 100

31 - The Nun 2 - 100 (-10)

32 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 90

33 - The Equalizer 3 - 80

 

On 2/6/2023 at 3:18 AM, MNightShya said:

Wish doing 150M seems a bit low to me.

But let's see.

 

 

On 2/6/2023 at 5:57 AM, dxmatrixdt said:

i cautiously put Wish and Elemental at 150m because of Disney's performance record lately.  Same with Migration at 130m and the unknown with how animated movies should fare going forward.

looks like Wish might end up doing better than 150

[deniima]

My last-minute Summer DOM predictions

 

1. The Flash - $390M 

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $360M 

3. The Little Mermaid - $335M 

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $310M 

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $300M 

6. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $295M 

7. Barbie - $205M 

8. Fast X - $165M

9. Oppenheimer - $145M 

10. Elemental - $140M 

11. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $140M 

12. Blue Beetle - $135M 

13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $115M 

14. The Meg 2 - $105M 

15. Haunted Mansion - $90M 

Edited May 6, 2023 by deniima

[kayumanggi]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:18 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Apr 28 - Apr 30 / $100,153,062

2022 / Apr 29 - May 01 / $66,904,036

 

WINS

2023: 15 weekends

2022: 02 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 05 - May 07 / $159,831,692

2022 / May 06 - May 08 / $222,333,899

 

WINS

2023: 15 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:23 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 496.0 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 213.0 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 177.0 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 156.1 M | CREED III

05 | 108.1 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | 089.0 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

09 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | 048.3 M | AIR

12 | 046.6 M | EVIL DEAD RISE

13 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

14 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

15 | 032.5 M | MISSING

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

05 | 100M movies

10 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 521.9 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 213.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 180.8 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 156.2 M | CREED III

05 | 145.5 M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

 

06 | 108.2 M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

08 | 091.3 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

10 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

 

11 | 056.0 M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

13 | 050.7 M | AIR

14 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

15 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

13 | 050M movies

[stripe]

23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 05 - May 07 / $159,831,692

2022 / May 06 - May 08 / $222,333,899

 

WINS

2023: 15 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

 

Upcoming weekend will be a closer race. 2023 has to surpasse 91.7M overall gross to win.

[Asyulus]

Here is my updated predictions:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $580M DOM - $1.38B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $380M DOM - $1.05B WW

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $370M DOM - $870M WW

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $440M DOM - $840M WW

5. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $240M DOM - $785M WW

6. Fast X - $160M TORETTO - $710M WW

7. The Marvels - $220M DOM - $585M WW

8. The Little Mermaid - $300M DOM - $540M WW

9. Meg 2: The Trench - $160M DOM - $520M WW

10. Migration - $150M DOM - $515M WW

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $215M DOM - $475M WW

12. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $185M DOM - $450M WW

13. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $180M DOM - $435M WW

14. Elemental - $160M DOM - $440M WW

15. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $130M DOM - $435M WW

16. Dune: Part Two - $180M DOM - $430M WW

17. The Flash - $150M DOM - $370M WW

18. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $130M DOM - $290M WW

19. Creed III - $155M DOM - $275M WW

20. Oppenheimer - $85M DOM - $260M WW

21. Wish - $80M DOM - $250M WW

22. Haunted Mansion - $90M DOM - $225M WW

23. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $75M DOM - $220M WW

24. Blue Beetle - $85M DOM - $215M WW

25. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $95M DOM - $210M WW

26. Kraven the Hunter - $80M DOM - $200M WW

27. Barbie - $65M DOM - $185M WW

28. The Equalizer 3 - $100M DOM - $180M WW

29. Scream VI - $110M DOM - $170M WW

30. Wonka - $60M DOM - $155M WW

Edited June 9, 2023 by Asyulus

[joselowe]

4 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Here is my updated predictions:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $580M DOM - $1.45B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $380M DOM - $1.05B WW

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $380M DOM - $920M WW

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $240M DOM - $785M WW

5. Fast X - $140M TORETTO - $660M WW

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $260M DOM - $640M WW

7. The Little Mermaid - $250M DOM - $625M WW

8. The Marvels - $220M DOM - $585M WW

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $235M DOM - $560M WW

10. Meg 2: The Trench - $160M DOM - $520M WW

11. Migration - $150M DOM - $515M WW

12. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $215M DOM - $475M WW

13. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $185M DOM - $450M WW

14. Dune: Part Two - $180M DOM - $430M WW

15. The Flash - $150M DOM - $370M WW

16. Elemental - $140M DOM - $340M WW

17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $130M DOM - $310M WW

18. Creed III - $155M DOM - $275M WW

19. Oppenheimer - $85M DOM - $260M WW

20. Wish - $80M DOM - $250M WW

21. Haunted Mansion - $90M DOM - $240M WW

22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $60M DOM - $225M WW

23. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $75M DOM - $220M WW

24. Blue Beetle - $85M DOM - $215M WW

25. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $95M DOM - $210M WW

26. Barbie - $70M DOM - $205M WW

27. Kraven the Hunter - $80M DOM - $200M WW

28. The Equalizer 3 - $100M DOM - $180M WW

29. Scream VI - $110M DOM - $170M WW

30. Wonka - $60M DOM - $155M WW

Agree 100% about Barbie. Def think people are overestimating this film.

[jedijake]

Switch #2 and #7 and this list looks almost perfect.

[WorkingonaName]

On 3/25/2023 at 1:16 PM, WorkingonaName said:

 Update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.1B

2. The Flash: $1B

3. The Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 3: $900M

4. Indiana Jones And the Dial Of Destiny: $900M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning part 1: $850M

6. Dune 2: $750M

7. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

8. The Little Mermaid: $650M

9. Barbie: $620M

10. The Marvels: $600M

 

Update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. The Flash: $1B

3. The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

5. Barbie: $750M

6. Fast X: $750M

7. Dune 2: $750M

8. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

9. Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny: $700M 

10. Across The Spider-verse: $650M

Edited May 19, 2023 by WorkingonaName
Fast X

[kayumanggi]

On 5/12/2023 at 7:49 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 05 - May 07 / $159,831,692

2022 / May 06 - May 08 / $222,333,899

 

WINS

2023: 15 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 12 - May 14 / $100,365,730

2022 / May 13 - May 15 / $91,763,058

 

WINS

2023: 16 weekends

2022: 03 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 5/12/2023 at 8:04 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 521.9 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 213.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 180.8 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 156.2 M | CREED III

05 | 145.5 M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

 

06 | 108.2 M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

08 | 091.3 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

10 | 057.6 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

 

11 | 056.0 M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 052.1 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

13 | 050.7 M | AIR

14 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

15 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

13 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 538.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 230.8M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.2M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 183.6M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0M | M3GAN

08 | 092.4M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

10 | 061.4M | EVIL DEAD RISE

 

11 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

12 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

13 | 051.9M | AIR

14 | 039.3M | 80 FOR BRADY

15 | 035.4M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

13 | 050M movies

[jedijake]

6 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

Update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. The Flash: $1B

3. The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

5. Barbie: $750M

6. Fast X: $750M

7. Dune 2: $750M

8. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

9. Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny: $700M 

10. Across The Spider-verse: $650M

So TLM is going to make less than $250 million over seas? Because it's going to make close to $400 million domestic.

[poweranimals]

19 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Here is my updated predictions:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $580M DOM - $1.45B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $380M DOM - $1.05B WW

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $380M DOM - $880M WW

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $240M DOM - $785M WW

5. Fast X - $140M TORETTO - $660M WW

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $260M DOM - $640M WW

7. The Little Mermaid - $250M DOM - $625M WW

8. The Marvels - $220M DOM - $585M WW

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $235M DOM - $560M WW

10. Meg 2: The Trench - $160M DOM - $520M WW

11. Migration - $150M DOM - $515M WW

12. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $215M DOM - $475M WW

13. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $185M DOM - $450M WW

14. Dune: Part Two - $180M DOM - $430M WW

15. The Flash - $150M DOM - $370M WW

16. Elemental - $140M DOM - $340M WW

17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $130M DOM - $290M WW

18. Creed III - $155M DOM - $275M WW

19. Oppenheimer - $85M DOM - $260M WW

20. Wish - $80M DOM - $250M WW

21. Haunted Mansion - $90M DOM - $240M WW

22. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $60M DOM - $225M WW

23. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $75M DOM - $220M WW

24. Blue Beetle - $85M DOM - $215M WW

25. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $95M DOM - $210M WW

26. Barbie - $70M DOM - $205M WW

27. Kraven the Hunter - $80M DOM - $200M WW

28. The Equalizer 3 - $100M DOM - $180M WW

29. Scream VI - $110M DOM - $170M WW

30. Wonka - $60M DOM - $155M WW

You don't even have Flash in the top 10? 😦

[thajdikt]

19 hours ago, Asyulus said:

 

15. The Flash - $150M DOM - $370M WW

 

Respectfully, this is major lowballing. It might make 350M OW

[Asyulus]

17 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

You don't even have Flash in the top 10? 😦

 

14 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Respectfully, this is major lowballing. It might make 350M OW

Not seeing how The Flash is gonna be bonkers given the state of DCEU being rebooted which can affect this film. Besides majority of the audience won't care about Keaton Batman so nostalgia effect is weak play here. There's also multiverse fatigue + overcomplicated-ness and we have seen that recently. Star power isn't derivative of massive box office when The Rock's Black Adam can't even hit $400M WW. I may create The Flash UNDER $500M WW club in the future.

 

I just do not see interesting hook and scope in this to have such overperformance.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Asyulus

[kayumanggi]

18 hours ago, Asyulus said:

 

Not seeing how The Flash is gonna be bonkers given the state of DCEU being rebooted which can affect this film. Besides majority of the audience won't care about Keaton Batman so nostalgia effect is weak play here. There's also multiverse fatigue + overcomplicated-ness and we have seen that recently. Star power isn't derivative of massive box office when The Rock's Black Adam can't even hit $400M WW. I may create The Flash UNDER $500M WW club in the future.

 

I just do not see interesting hook and scope in this to have such overperformance.

 

Are you aware of THE FLASH's tracking?

[Asyulus]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Are you aware of THE FLASH's tracking?

I don’t usually follow tracking numbers since they aren’t always accurate. I try to be as daring as possible when predicting.

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

I don’t usually follow tracking numbers since they aren’t always accurate. I try to be as daring as possible when predicting.

 

Just to let you know, current tracking points to a 115M - 140M opening weekend.

[JustLurking]

20 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Just to let you know, current tracking points to a 115M - 140M opening weekend.

I'm not sure what "tracking" there can really be before tickets are even on sale. BOP long range forecasts are just that, forecasts. They can change real quick if actual tracking doesn't deliver when tickets go on sale. So I wouldn't rely on them too much this far out in the game.

 

I think Flash will do well, by the way, maybe even does hit that range. Just saying.