2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The early months look rather unremarkable to me, though maybe might still be an improvement over last year.

 

Hopefully the US will avoid any more huge covid waves and this can really be the first "normal" year since 2019.

January will be weak due to an almost complete lack of product (besides our favorite dancing killer robot lol) but starting in February through at least the end of July there's looking to be a bunch of obvious heavy hitters and franchise titles + movies with potential for decent business (Knock at the Cabin, Magic Mike, Cocaine Bear, 65, Renfield, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, No Hard Feelings, Asteroid City). Given that there were weekends this year where nothing came out, that's unquestionably an improvement.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, JWR said:

June is so damn crowded. I'm predicting that one of those moves forward or pushed back. And until we get a Flash trailer, I'm not even sure its making its release. 

I don't think WB would have even bothered with the stunt of moving Flash up a week if it wasn't making its release date.

[Pinacolada]

March seems like it will be a pretty great month also (Creed, Scream, Shazam, John Wick, DnD, with 65 as a potential original breakout. And then April has Mario which can be huge

[poweranimals]

Fandango posted the top 10 most anticipated movies for 2023 from people that they polled. 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/top-movies-2023-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-fandango-1235203078/

 

2023’s Most Anticipated Blockbusters:

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

2. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17)

4. John Wick: Chapter 4 (March 24)

5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30)

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 25)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (July 14)

8. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of the Songbirds and Snakes (Nov. 17)

9. Creed III (March 3)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (April 7)

[WittyUsername]

If 2023 isn’t a comeback year for movie theaters, we’re gonna be in some trouble. 

[Hades]

19 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Fandango posted the top 10 most anticipated movies for 2023 from people that they polled. 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/top-movies-2023-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-fandango-1235203078/

 

2023’s Most Anticipated Blockbusters:

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

2. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17)

4. John Wick: Chapter 4 (March 24)

5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30)

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 25)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (July 14)

8. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of the Songbirds and Snakes (Nov. 17)

9. Creed III (March 3)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (April 7)

 

Yikes for the Flash and the Marvels..Going to be awkward if Aquaman brings in the big bucks

[WittyUsername]

I will say; Aquaman being in sixth place on that poll without so much as a single teaser isn’t too shabby. 

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

If 2023 isn’t a comeback year for movie theaters, we’re gonna be in some trouble. 

Yup, and in the context of a comeback I've got my eyes squarely on the non Summer and non holiday months. That's where we really see if 2023 is different or not. I'd like to see a much better winter (January, February, March) and Fall (September, October). Not expecting everything to be a hit but just having a normal slate of offerings during those periods will help. For instance, it's nice to have a WB horror tentpole (The Nun 2) in September again. Something simple like that gives me sort of a "normalcy" vibe, personally.

[Factcheck]

On 11/5/2022 at 8:20 PM, Factcheck said:

Aquaman 2 550M(Christmas release date/no big competition)

The Marvels 180-200M

The Flash 330M( because of Batman)

Rest Agree

Updated prediction-

GOTG3 425-475M

Mario 275-375M

Spider-verse 280-370M

Ant-Man 3 280-370M

The Flash 250-310M

Aquaman 2 450-550M

MI 7 250-375M

Indy 5 350-450M

The Marvels 170-190M

Barbie 170-220M

Shazam 2 180-230M

Hunger games 5 250-350M

John Wick 4 220-270M

Little Mermaid 250-350M

Fast X 170-240M

Transformers 160-230M

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Factcheck

[JWR]

Hopefully 2023 is stronger for animation than 2022 was.

[Brainbug]

Here are my Top 5 Five-Head (or 0-Head) predictions for 2023, a follow-up to the same thing i did for 2018 and had forgotten after that only to now randomly resume it:

 

01. Indiana Jones 5 will gross 600M+ DOM. Yes thats right. The last Indy film will also be the best sequel in the franchise, instantly washing away the bad feelings from Crystal Scull and becoming the biggest hit of the year.

 

02. M3GAN will gross 150M+ DOM because that is LOCKED

 

03. GOTG Vol 3 will FAIL to outgross GOTG Vol 2 despite beeing the highly anticipated end of the trilogy. But the GA is oversaturated with MCU fare these days and Vol 3 wont be able to gross more than Vol 2's 389M.

 

04. Dead Reckoning - Part 1 will be the first Mission Impossible film to cross 300M+ DOM because of Top Guns and prior M:I films goodwill

 

05. Fast X will FAIL to gross more than 150M DOM with over 85% if its WW grosses coming from OS.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Brainbug

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I honestly think I will only watch 3 movies in the movie theaters in 2023. Ant Man 3, Guardians 3 and Indy 4 (there have only been 3 Indiana Jones movies to date). If Rogue is in Captain Marvel 2 and she is not race swapped then I will watch that too. Maybe I'm part of the problem but my days of watching 2-3 movies in the theaters a week and watching every new release is over.

 

Anyways, predictions (assuming no China for Marvel movies):

 

Ant Man 3 - 300MM DOM, 700MM WW

Guardians 3 - 400MM DOM, 850MM WW

Marvels 3 - 350MM DOM, 725MM WW

Spiderverse 2 - 250MM DOM, 550MM WW

Kraven - 125MM DOM, 275MM WW

Shazam 2 - 175MM DOM, 375MM WW

Aquaman 2 - 300MM DOM, 800MM WW

Blue Beetle - 200MM DOM, 400MM WW

John Wick 4 - 220MM DOM, 450MM WW

Indy 4 (yes Indy 4) - 400MM DOM, 900MM WW

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by AnotherDayAnotherDollar

[dxmatrixdt]

1 - The Little Mermaid - 425

2 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - 400

3 - Indiana Jones 5 - 375

4 - The Marvels - 280

5 - Ant-Man 3 - 270

6 - Super Mario Bros. - 260

7 - Mission: Impossible 7 - 250

8 - Spider-Verse 2 - 240

9 - Aquaman 2 - 230

10 - Barbie - 220

11 - Fast X - 200

12 - The Flash - 190

13 - Transformers - 170

14 - Wonka - 160

15 - Shazam 2 - 160

16 - Elemental - 150

17 - Oppenheimer - 150

18 - John Wick 4 - 150

19 - Ghostbusters - 150

20 - Wish - 150

21 - Blue Beetle - 150

22 - The Hunger Games - 140

23 - Creed 3 - 130

24 - Migration - 130

25 - Dune 2 - 130

26 - Trolls 3 - 130

27 - The Meg 2 - 130

28 - Kraven the Hunter - 110

29 - Haunted Mansion - 110

30 - The Nun 2 - 110

31 - Scream 6 - 100

32 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 90

33 - The Equalizer 3 - 80

Edited January 1, 2023 by dxmatrixdt
added Migration

[Grebacio]

1. Indiana Jones 5 - 512M
2. The Little Mermaid - 503M
3. Guardians Vol 3 - 424M
4. Super Mario Bros - 386M

5. The Marvels - 362M

6. Mission Impossible DR Pt1 - 341M

7. The Flash - 333M

8. Aquaman and The Lost Kingdom- 309M

9. Ant Man and The Wasp Quantumania - 304M

10. Spider Man Across The Spider Verse - 288M
11. Barbie - 231M
12. Dune Pt 2 - 215M
13. Migration - 207M
14. Oppenheimer - 203M
15. John Wick 4 - 190M
16. Elemental 184M
17. Shazam Fury of The Gods - 181M
18 Trolls 3 - 172M
19. Fast X - 153M
20. Transformers Rise of the Beasts - 147M

I think Blue Beetle will move to 2024, but in case it stays I predict 270m-ish.

[thajdikt]

2023 wil be a great year for the box office but no big wild hits on the level of Top Gun or higher. But a lot of 200-300M domestic and 500-700M worldwide

[marveldcfox]

My most anticipated movie next year is Blue Beetle. 

I have decided to skip all marvel flicks next year and 2024.

Not going to watch any Disney film next year.

Only big action movie I will check out is Mission impossible.

[poweranimals]

16 hours ago, thajdikt said:

2023 wil be a great year for the box office but no big wild hits on the level of Top Gun or higher. But a lot of 200-300M domestic and 500-700M worldwide

Thing is NO ONE expected Top Gun to make as much as it did so we can't really say that there won't be any movies in 2023 that have a similar breakout.

[JWR]

I think an animated movie other than Super Mario Bros has the potential to break out.

[Juby]

Okay, alright. Here is my 2023 forecast:

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
domestic: $450 million / overseas: $690 million / worldwide: $1.14 billion

 

2. The Little Mermaid (2023)
domestic: $350 million / overseas: $650 million / worldwide: $1 billion

 

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
domestic: $290 million / overseas: $670 million / worldwide: $960 million

 

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1
domestic: $295 million / overseas: $605 million / worldwide: $900 million

 

5. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
domestic: $405 million / overseas: $425 million / worldwide: $830 million

 

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
domestic: $265 million / overseas: $410 million / worldwide: $675 million

 

7. The Marvels
domestic: $270 million / overseas: $400 million / worldwide: $670 million

 

8. Dune: Part Two
domestic: $225 million / overseas: $440 million / worldwide: $665 million

 

9. Fast X
domestic: $160 million / overseas: $500 million / worldwide: $660 million

 

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
domestic: $250 million / overseas: $305 million / worldwide: $555 million

 

 

At 11th I've got Oppenheimer with similiar numbers to Dunkirk in 2017. I've no idea how to predict Mario Bros. or Elementals because these are not good times for an animated films. My 1st is Indy, I wrote about him a few words some time ago: 

My 2nd is Mermaid which I believe have a potential to score big (maybe $1b ww? maybe $350-400m dom?), maybe as big as live-action The Jungle Book and Aladdin. The 3rd I believe will be Aquaman with some drops compared to the first one (but still big thanks to his new December release date). The 4th will be the new M:I (fingers crossed!), the 5th GotG3 (after this year I don't think it will be bigger domestic than Doctor Strange 2 and much bigger than Thor: Love and Thunder OS), at 6th I have the new Ant-Man (some increases from Ant-Man and the Wasp), 7th The Marvels (domestic drop similiar to the first film as Wakanda Forever has to the first Black Panther, overseas - a little bit more than Wakanda because the first Captain Marvel film was bigger OS than the first BP) later I got Dune 2 which should benefit after all the Oscars for the first film and no HBO Max release at the day 1 (probably after +60 days in this case), 9th will be F10 with another drop in this too-long franchise, and the last one on my list is the new Spider-Man from Sony (it might've been even bigger if not full-packed summer). I don't see any big surprises next year (like TGM this year or NWH in 2021) and I don't think there'll be any big hit from China in 2023 (+$600m). Barbie, John Wick 4, Shazam !!, TF6 and Blue Beetle - all of'em I see in $400m ww range.

 

And what about The Flash You may ask? Until Warner drop some trailer. . .

It might be a huge hit next summer or be a spectacular bomb. I don't know yet.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Juby

[JWR]

50 minutes ago, Juby said:

Okay, alright. Here is my 2023 forecast:

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
domestic: $450 million / overseas: $690 million / worldwide: $1.14 billion

 

2. The Little Mermaid (2023)
domestic: $350 million / overseas: $650 million / worldwide: $1 billion

 

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
domestic: $290 million / overseas: $670 million / worldwide: $960 million

 

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1
domestic: $295 million / overseas: $605 million / worldwide: $900 million

 

5. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
domestic: $405 million / overseas: $425 million / worldwide: $830 million

 

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
domestic: $265 million / overseas: $410 million / worldwide: $675 million

 

7. The Marvels
domestic: $270 million / overseas: $400 million / worldwide: $670 million

 

8. Dune: Part Two
domestic: $225 million / overseas: $440 million / worldwide: $665 million

 

9. Fast X
domestic: $160 million / overseas: $500 million / worldwide: $660 million

 

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
domestic: $250 million / overseas: $305 million / worldwide: $555 million

 

 

At 11th I've got Oppenheimer with similiar numbers to Dunkirk in 2017. I've no idea how to predict Mario Bros. or Elementals because these are not good times for an animated films. My 1st is Indy, I wrote about him a few words some time ago: 

My 2nd is Mermaid which I believe have a potential to score big (maybe $1b ww? maybe $350-400m dom?), maybe as big as live-action The Jungle Book and Aladdin. The 3rd I believe will be Aquaman with some drops compared to the first one (but still big thanks to his new December release date). The 4th will be the new M:I (fingers crossed!), the 5th GotG3 (after this year I don't think it will be bigger domestic than Doctor Strange 2 and much bigger than Thor: Love and Thunder OS), at 6th I have the new Ant-Man (some increases from Ant-Man and the Wasp), 7th The Marvels (domestic drop similiar to the first film as Wakanda Forever has to the first Black Panther, overseas - a little bit more than Wakanda because the first Captain Marvel film was bigger OS than the first BP) later I got Dune 2 which should benefit after all the Oscars for the first film and no HBO Max release at the day 1 (probably after +60 days in this case), 9th will be F10 with another drop in this too-long franchise, and the last one on my list is the new Spider-Man from Sony (it might've been even bigger if not full-packed summer). I don't see any big surprises next year (like TGM this year or NWH in 2021) and I don't think there'll be any big hit from China in 2023 (+$600m). Barbie, John Wick 4, Shazam !!, TF6 and Blue Beetle - all of'em I see in $400m ww range.

 

And what about The Flash You may ask? Until Warner drop some trailer. . .

It might be a huge hit next summer or be a spectacular bomb. I don't know yet.

 

 

Elemental and other animated films are total wild cards next year.