2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[kayumanggi]

On 10/3/2023 at 11:30 PM, MattW said:

September 471.7, 72% of the prepandemic avg about 650-660. 

 

Summer 19% over 2022, 6% under the previous average.

 

YTD we're at 25% over 2022, 18% under the average.

 

Rest of the year looks much better than it did just a month ago, but I still don't see it bringing up the YTD average, I'll guess 2023 ends up just north of 9 billion. 

 

This is a win to me. I thought the year would just end with 8 billion.

[kayumanggi]

On 8/6/2023 at 5:27 PM, kayumanggi said:

2023 has crossed $6B.

 

2023 has crossed $7B.

[kayumanggi]

On 9/4/2023 at 12:48 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 25 - Aug 27 / $90,836,303

2022 / Aug 26 - Aug 28 / $52,149,248

 

WINS

2023: 25 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 34)

 

2023

01 | 592.8M | BARBIE

02 | 574.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.2M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 299.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 691.2M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 374.8M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 354.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 336.5M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 01 - Sep 03 / $89,206,083

2023 / Sep 01 - Sep 04 / $115,048,875 (Labor Day weekend)

2022 / Sep 02 - Sep 04 / $55,664,136

2022 / Sep 02 - Sep 05 / $71,172,772 (Labor Day weekend)

 

WINS

2023: 26 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 35)

 

2023

01 | 609.1M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 308.8M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 699.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 375.5M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 359.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 340.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

Edited October 5, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 01 - Sep 03 / $89,206,083

2023 / Sep 01 - Sep 04 / $115,048,875 (Labor Day weekend)

2022 / Sep 02 - Sep 04 / $55,664,136

2022 / Sep 02 - Sep 05 / $71,172,772 (Labor Day weekend)

 

WINS

2023: 26 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 35)

 

2023

01 | 609.1M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 308.8M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 699.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 375.5M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 359.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 340.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

*in year releases

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 08 - Sep 10 / $88,370,507

2022 / Sep 09 - Sep 11 / $43,193,037

 

WINS

2023: 27 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 36)

 

2023

01 | 620.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 315.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 705.6M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 375.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 362.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 342.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

Edited October 5, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 08 - Sep 10 / $88,370,507

2022 / Sep 09 - Sep 11 / $43,193,037

 

WINS

2023: 27 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 36)*

 

2023

01 | 620.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 315.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 705.6M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 375.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 362.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 342.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 15 - Sep 17 / $62,025,562

2022 / Sep 16 - Sep 18 / $51,459,761

 

WINS

2023: 28 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 37)

 

2023

01 | 626.0M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 318.6M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 709.1M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 364.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 342.9M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

[kayumanggi]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 15 - Sep 17 / $62,025,562

2022 / Sep 16 - Sep 18 / $51,459,761

 

WINS

2023: 28 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 37)

 

2023

01 | 626.0M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 318.6M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 709.1M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 364.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 342.9M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 22 - Sep 24 / $51,853,989

2022 / Sep 23 - Sep 25 / $62,428,984

 

WINS

2023: 28 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 38)

 

2023

01 | 630.5M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 321.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 711.6M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 365.6M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

[kayumanggi]

On 10/5/2023 at 2:05 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 22 - Sep 24 / $51,853,989

2022 / Sep 23 - Sep 25 / $62,428,984

 

WINS

2023: 28 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 38)

 

2023

01 | 630.5M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 321.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 711.6M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 365.6M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 29 - Oct 01 / $85,651,195

2022 / Sep 30 - Oct 02 / $63,993,367

 

WINS

2023: 29 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 39)

 

2023

01 | 633.1M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 322.5M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 713.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 366.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

Edited October 30, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

On 8/30/2023 at 12:53 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 592.8M | BARBIE

02 | 574.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 299.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

06 | 297.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 180.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

10 | 174.1M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 168.0M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

12 | 157.1M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 156.2M | CREED III

14 | 151.7M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

29 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 633.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 322.6M | OPPENHEIMER

 

06 | 298.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 184.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

10 | 174.5M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 172.1M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

12 | 157.1M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 156.2M | CREED III

14 | 154.4M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

05 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

18 | 100M movies

32 | 050M movies

[stripe]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

This is a win to me. I thought the year would just end with 8 billion.

 

Agree. 9 billion+ was the high end of my expectations for 2023, and the year could finish confortably over that mark.

We are at 7.1 billion

October might gross 650-700M and November should add another 700M+. December is very hard to predict, but Renaissence+Wonka+Aquaman+Migration+Color Purple should help to bring the month over 800M.

 

[kayumanggi]

On 10/5/2023 at 2:09 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Sep 29 - Oct 01 / $85,651,195

2022 / Sep 30 - Oct 02 / $63,993,367

 

WINS

2023: 29 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 39)

 

2023

01 | 633.1M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 322.5M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 713.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 366.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 06 - Oct 08 / $72,841,081

2023 / Oct 06 - Oct 09 / $82,325,765 (Indigenous Peoples' Day Weekend)

 

2022 / Oct 07 - Oct 09 / $58,977,399

2022 / Oct 07 - Oct 10 / $67,265,387 (Indigenous Peoples' Day Weekend)

 

WINS

2023: 30 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 40)

 

2023

01 | 634.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 323.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 714.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 367.7M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

Edited October 30, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 06 - Oct 08 / $72,841,081

2023 / Oct 06 - Oct 09 / $82,325,765 (Indigenous Peoples' Day Weekend)

 

2022 / Oct 07 - Oct 09 / $58,977,399

2022 / Oct 07 - Oct 10 / $67,265,387 (Indigenous Peoples' Day Weekend)

 

WINS

2023: 30 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 40)

 

2023

01 | 634.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 323.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 714.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 367.7M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 13 - Oct 15 / $132,503,981

2022 / Oct 14 - Oct 16 / $76,347,045

 

WINS

2023: 31 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 41)

 

2023

01 | 635.2M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 323.7M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 715.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 368.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

[kayumanggi]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:20 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 13 - Oct 15 / $132,503,981

2022 / Oct 14 - Oct 16 / $76,347,045

 

WINS

2023: 31 weekends

2022: 10 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 41)

 

2023

01 | 635.2M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 323.7M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 715.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 368.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 20 - Oct 22 / $84,154,168

2022 / Oct 21 - Oct 23 / $113,651,016

 

WINS

2023: 31 weekends

2022: 11 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 42)

 

2023

01 | 635.7M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 324.1M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 716.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 368.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

Edited November 7, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

On 10/5/2023 at 2:14 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 633.3M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 322.6M | OPPENHEIMER

 

06 | 298.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 184.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

10 | 174.5M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 172.1M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

12 | 157.1M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 156.2M | CREED III

14 | 154.4M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

05 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

18 | 100M movies

32 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 635.7M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 324.1M | OPPENHEIMER

 

06 | 298.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 184.1M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

10 | 174.5M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 172.1M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

12 | 157.1M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 156.2M | CREED III

14 | 154.4M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

05 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

18 | 100M movies

33 | 050M movies

[kayumanggi]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:24 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 20 - Oct 22 / $84,154,168

2022 / Oct 21 - Oct 23 / $113,651,016

 

WINS

2023: 31 weekends

2022: 11 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 42)

 

2023

01 | 635.7M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 324.1M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 716.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 368.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Oct 27 - Oct 29 / $126,151,159

2022 / Oct 28 - Oct 30 / $67,841,734

 

WINS

2023: 32 weekends

2022: 11 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 43)

 

2023

01 | 635.9M | BARBIE

02 | 574.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 324.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 716.6M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 376.0M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 369.0M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 343.3M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

[MattW]

The holiday run looks like it'll be better than I was thinking, but there were too many other Nov/Dec to make up for so the year will end up a bit under 9b, almost 80% of the previous average.

 

Back in early 2022 I was thinking ~70% would be the new normal so this is better than that at least. Next year will drop for sure, with 2025 benefitting. So the goal for the next two years together should be at least 18b.

[WittyUsername]

All things considered, I’d say 2023 was an unexpectedly interesting year for the box office, despite the sheer number of big budget bombs. Sadly, 2024, is looking like a pretty barren year, but who knows? Maybe there will be some surprises. 

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

All things considered, I’d say 2023 was an unexpectedly interesting year for the box office, despite the sheer number of big budget bombs. Sadly, 2024, is looking like a pretty barren year, but who knows? Maybe there will be some surprises. 

 

In practically every year (minus 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons) there are always some movie(s) that are incredibly successfull when no one saw it coming (to that level) the months before. This year it was Barbie, last year it was Top Gun. 2024 will surely have another one or two that we just cant predict right now.

 

Spoiler

Though in my heart its ofc GxK. One can dream

 

[Flip]

On 12/13/2023 at 3:50 AM, Brainbug said:

 

In practically every year (minus 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons) there are always some movie(s) that are incredibly successfull when no one saw it coming (to that level) the months before. This year it was Barbie, last year it was Top Gun. 2024 will surely have another one or two that we just cant predict right now.

 

  Hide contents

Though in my heart its ofc GxK. One can dream

 

Domestically, Beetlejuice 2 is the one I think 

[Mojoguy]

On 12/13/2023 at 12:50 AM, Brainbug said:

 

In practically every year (minus 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons) there are always some movie(s) that are incredibly successfull when no one saw it coming (to that level) the months before. This year it was Barbie, last year it was Top Gun. 2024 will surely have another one or two that we just cant predict right now.

 

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Though in my heart its ofc GxK. One can dream

 

And TGM and Barbie had a ton of posts in their first pages of their topics saying those movies would flop. You can always tell people have no clue about the boxoffice, and when movies are first announced there is uncertainty about the whole thing. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Mojoguy

[MattW]

Comscore says 2023 did in fact hit $9 billion, another example of mojo not quite capturing the entire market, only 99% of it.

 

In spite of there not being a halo movie over the holiday period 2023's december total is higher than 2022's, $735-740m vs $680m, though it was still only ~63% of the previous December average.  Looking at the list of December releases makes 2023 look pretty solid though, 2-5 did quite a bit better than the last 2 years, and 6-25 is very close to the previous average December:

 

	Month total	#1 movie	#s 2-5	#s 6-12	#s 13-25	Rest
2023	~740	133.6	229.4	216	127.1	33.9
% of month		18.1	31	29.2	17.2	4.6
2022	677.9	401	181.3	65.3	21.3	9
% of month		59.2	26.7	9.6	3.1	1.3
2021	923.2	573	182.9	114.1	42.6	10.6
% of month		62.1	19.8	12.4	4.6	1.1
2019	1148.2	390.7	470.5	174.1	82.9	30
2018	1071.7	199.1	369	288.6	168.8	46.2
2017	1325	517.2	385	237.2	156.6	29
2016	1189.6	408.2	384.7	225.9	139.4	31.4
2016-2019 Avg	1183.6	378.8	402.3	231.5	136.9	34.1
% of month		32	34	19.6	11.6	2.9

 

2023 was reasonably representative of the prepandemic level with the #1 halo movie left off. If a 300-400m grossing  movie was added on top of everything else that's a normal December in the before-times, but I'm sure we all recognize the market wouldn't have been able to handle that, the rest of the movies would very likely have suffered.