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2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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On 6/15/2023 at 10:56 PM, WorkingonaName said:

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1: $1B

4. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

5. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $800M

6. Fast X: $700M

7. Dune 2: $700M

8. Across the Spider-verse: $700M

9. How do you live?" $650M

10. The Meg 2: $600M

11. Little Mermaid: $550M

12. Oppenheimer: $500M

13. Wonka: $500M

14. The Flash: $500M

15. The Marvels: $500M

16. Indiana Jones and The Dial Of Destiny: $500M

17. John Wick 4: $450M

18. Ant-Man 3: $450M

19. FNAF: $400M

20. Transformers: Rise of the beast: $400M

21. Wish: $400M

22. Hunger games: $350M

23. Elemental: $350M

24. Killers of the Flower Moon: $300M

25. migration: $300M

1. Barbie: $1.45B

2. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

3. Oppenheimer: $900M 

4. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

5. Fast X: $700M

6. Dune 2: $700M

7. Across The Spider-verse: $690M

8. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $650M

9. Wonka: $600M

10.  Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1: $550M

11. Little Mermaid: $550M

12. Meg 2: The Trench: $500M

13. The Marvels: $500M

14. Migration: $500M

15. Elemental: $450M

16. FNAF:  $450M

17, Quantomina: $450M

18. Transformers: Rise Of The Beast: $450M

19. John Wick 4: $450M

20. Killers Of The Flower Moon: $400M

21. Napoleon: $400M

22. Wish: $400M

23. Indy 5: $400M

24. Hunger Games: $350M

25. Nun 2: $350M

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10 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

1. Barbie: $1.45B

2. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

3. Oppenheimer: $900M 

4. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

5. Fast X: $700M

6. Dune 2: $700M

7. Across The Spider-verse: $690M

8. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $650M

9. Wonka: $600M

10.  Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1: $550M

11. Little Mermaid: $550M

12. Meg 2: The Trench: $500M

13. The Marvels: $500M

14. Migration: $500M

15. Elemental: $450M

16. FNAF:  $450M

17, Quantomina: $450M

18. Transformers: Rise Of The Beast: $450M

19. John Wick 4: $450M

20. Killers Of The Flower Moon: $400M

21. Napoleon: $400M

22. Wish: $400M

23. Indy 5: $400M

24. Hunger Games: $350M

25. Nun 2: $350M

That's pretty high expectations for Aquaman 2 considering the dumpster fire that the DC brand is right now.

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On 8/4/2023 at 5:16 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 28 - Jul 30 / $213,582,186

2022 / Jul 29 - Jul 31 / $97,884,255

 

WINS

2023: 21 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 30)

 

2023

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 378.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 351.4M | BARBIE

05 | 296.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 650.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 369.6M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 320.5M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 301.6M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 04 - Aug 06 / $176,725,450

2022 / Aug 05 - Aug 07 / $92,090,558

 

WINS

2023: 22 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 31)

 

2023

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 459.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.1M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 662.5M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 371.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 334.6M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 316.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 8/4/2023 at 5:25 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 394.6M | BARBIE

03 | 379.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

06 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

07 | 194.3M | OPPENHEIMER

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 168.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 156.8M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

 

11 | 156.2M | CREED III

12 | 155.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

13 | 146.7M | ELEMENTAL

14 | 146.0M | FAST X

15 | 143.4M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

06 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

26 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 459.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.1M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

06 | 229.0M | OPPENHEIMER

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 170.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 164.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

 

11 | 157.0M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

12 | 156.2M | CREED III

13 | 151.2M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

14 | 148.4M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

26 | 050M movies

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Dungeons & Dragons

Air

No hard Feelings

Fast X

Transformers RotB

MI7

Flash

Blue Beetle

The Little Mermaid

Elemental

Ant Man

Last Voyage of Demeter

Indiana Jones

Haunted Mansion

Shazam 2

 

A bombastic year so far.

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On 8/14/2023 at 2:57 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 04 - Aug 06 / $176,725,450

2022 / Aug 05 - Aug 07 / $92,090,558

 

WINS

2023: 22 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 31)

 

2023

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 459.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.1M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 662.5M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 371.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 334.6M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 316.2M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 11 - Aug 13 / $111,915,549

2022 / Aug 12 - Aug 14 / $65,390,115

 

WINS

2023: 23 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 32)

 

2023

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 526.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.7M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 673.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 373.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 343.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 325.5M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 11 - Aug 13 / $111,915,549

2022 / Aug 12 - Aug 14 / $65,390,115

 

WINS

2023: 23 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 32)

 

2023

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 526.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.7M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 673.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 373.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 343.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 325.5M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 18 - Aug 20 / $96,960,958

2022 / Aug 19 - Aug 21 / $78,931,261

 

WINS

2023: 24 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 33)

 

2023

01 | 574.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 566.8M | BARBIE

03 | 381.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 683.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 373.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 350.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 332.1M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 8/14/2023 at 3:08 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 459.4M | BARBIE

03 | 380.1M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

06 | 229.0M | OPPENHEIMER

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 170.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 164.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

 

11 | 157.0M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

12 | 156.2M | CREED III

13 | 151.2M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

14 | 148.4M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

26 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 592.8M | BARBIE

02 | 574.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 299.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

06 | 297.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 180.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

10 | 174.1M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 168.0M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

12 | 157.1M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 156.2M | CREED III

14 | 151.7M | ELEMENTAL

15 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 500M movies

02 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

07 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

29 | 050M movies

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On 8/21/2023 at 8:56 AM, Claudio said:

Dungeons & Dragons

Air

No hard Feelings

Fast X

Transformers RotB

MI7

Flash

Blue Beetle

The Little Mermaid

Elemental

Ant Man

Last Voyage of Demeter

Indiana Jones

Haunted Mansion

Shazam 2

 

A bombastic year so far.

 

LOL
Some of these are not even bombs, just underperformers against expectations.

I wouldnt call 2023 a bombastic year when we have seen incredible runs for SMB, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Across the Spiderverse, Sound of Freedom... There have been biggest grossers for Scream, John Wick, Rocky and Insidious sagas. Also, we have seen partial recovery for adult dramas/comedies (Man Called Otto, Air, Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings...).

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On 8/21/2023 at 1:56 AM, Claudio said:

Dungeons & Dragons

Air

No hard Feelings

Fast X

Transformers RotB

MI7

Flash

Blue Beetle

The Little Mermaid

Elemental

Ant Man

Last Voyage of Demeter

Indiana Jones

Haunted Mansion

Shazam 2

 

A bombastic year so far.

Apart from D&D, Air, and MI7, all I see is mid.

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August will come in at about 810m, basically at the prepandemic average level which was about 850. 

 

Summer season I think ends up just a touch over 4 billies, about 18% higher than last summer and 7% under the before-times average of ~4.3b

 

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On 8/30/2023 at 12:48 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 18 - Aug 20 / $96,960,958

2022 / Aug 19 - Aug 21 / $78,931,261

 

WINS

2023: 24 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 33)

 

2023

01 | 574.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 566.8M | BARBIE

03 | 381.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 683.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 373.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 350.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 332.1M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Aug 25 - Aug 27 / $90,836,303

2022 / Aug 26 - Aug 28 / $52,149,248

 

WINS

2023: 25 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 34)

 

2023

01 | 592.8M | BARBIE

02 | 574.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

03 | 381.2M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 299.2M | OPPENHEIMER

 

2022

01 | 691.2M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 374.8M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 354.8M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 336.5M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 8/4/2023 at 8:47 PM, poweranimals said:

That's pretty high expectations for Aquaman 2 considering the dumpster fire that the DC brand is right now.

Aquaman is the biggest film of the DCEU, and of course sequel it's gonna have a huge drop, but I don't think it will fall that hard considering there's not much competence for holiday season.

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September 471.7, 72% of the prepandemic avg about 650-660. 

 

Summer 19% over 2022, 6% under the previous average.

 

YTD we're at 25% over 2022, 18% under the average.

 

Rest of the year looks much better than it did just a month ago, but I still don't see it bringing up the YTD average, I'll guess 2023 ends up just north of 9 billion. 

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