2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[kayumanggi]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:58 AM, poweranimals said:

So what do you guys think will be the #1 movie for the second half of the year?

 

DUNE II. This is more of a want. 😁

[kayumanggi]

On 7/8/2023 at 7:59 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jun 30 - Jul 02 / $128,186,797

2022 / Jul 01 - Jul 03 / $189,927,071

 

 

2023 / Jun 30 - Jul 04 / $196,319,724

2022 / Jul 01 - Jul 04 / $223,580,059

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 08 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 26)

 

2023

01 | 573.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 356.1M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 346.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 283.8M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 570.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 410.6M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 335.8M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 190.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II

05 | 148.6M | UNCHARTED

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 07 - Jul 09 / $129,464,076

2022 / Jul 08 - Jul 10 / $238,358,457

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 27)

 

2023

01 | 573.8M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 357.7M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 357.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 289.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 597.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.0M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 350.5M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 210.7M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 190.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II

[kayumanggi]

On 7/8/2023 at 8:05 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 573.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 356.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 349.6M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 285.5M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 145.8M | FAST X

09 | 141.7M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

 

11 | 102.9M | THE FLASH

12 | 099.6M | ELEMENTAL

13 | 095.0M | M3GAN

14 | 094.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

15 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

11 | 100M movies

20 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 573.8M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 360.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 357.8M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 290.5M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 148.3M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

09 | 145.9M | FAST X

10 | 128.8M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 113.3M | ELEMENTAL

12 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

13 | 105.8M | THE FLASH

14 | 095.0M | M3GAN

15 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

13 | 100M movies

20 | 050M movies

[kayumanggi]

2022 has won the last FOUR weekends. That's how terrible June was.

[JustLurking]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:58 PM, poweranimals said:

So what do you guys think will be the #1 movie for the second half of the year?

Barbie feels inevitable to me.

[lab276]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

2022 has won the last FOUR weekends. That's how terrible June was.

 

To be fair, 2023 was ahead for every (or almost every) week before that.

[filmlover]

With the SAG strike imminent, this is what fall through holiday wide release schedule looks like now assuming everything that will be completed but is not dated ends up in 2024 (leaving off movies set for limited release with no dates for wide releases yet).

 

9/1: Equalizer 3

9/8: The Nun 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

9/15: Challengers, A Haunting in Venice

9/22: Expend4bles, Dumb Money, Drive-Away Dolls

9/29: PAW Patrol 2, The Creator

10/6: Kraven the Hunter

10/13: Exorcist: Believer, Ordinary Angels

10/20: Killers of the Flower Moon

10/27: Five Nights at Freddy's, Saw

11/3: Dune 2

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem, The Holdovers

11/17: Hunger Games, Troll 3, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

11/22: Wish, Napoleon

12/15: Wonka, Anyone But You

12/20-25: Aquaman 2, Ghostbusters, Migration, The Color Purple, Ferrari, The Boys in the Boat

[Jonwo]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

With the SAG strike imminent, this is what fall through holiday wide release schedule looks like now assuming everything that will be completed but is not dated ends up in 2024 (leaving off movies set for limited release with no dates for wide releases yet).

 

9/1: Equalizer 3

9/8: The Nun 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

9/15: Challengers, A Haunting in Venice

9/22: Expend4bles, Dumb Money, Drive-Away Dolls

9/29: PAW Patrol 2, The Creator

10/6: Kraven the Hunter

10/13: Exorcist: Believer, Ordinary Angels

10/20: Killers of the Flower Moon

10/27: Five Nights at Freddy's, Saw

11/3: Dune 2

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem, The Holdovers

11/17: Hunger Games, Troll 3, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

11/22: Wish, Napoleon

12/15: Wonka, Anyone But You

12/20-25: Aquaman 2, Ghostbusters, Migration, The Color Purple, Ferrari, The Boys in the Boat

 

Ghostbusters will move, mostly to fill a gap for Sony in 2024 like March or June. 

 

I think The Color Purple should go limited then wide in January to give it breathing room.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Ghostbusters will move, mostly to fill a gap for Sony in 2024 like March or June. 

 

I think The Color Purple should go limited then wide in January to give it breathing room.

 

 

 

Bob Marley: One Love is already in January, so Color Purple will definitely be a wide release on Christmas. Unless the strike is somehow still going on by then, the cast + Oprah will be everywhere promoting it over the holidays.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Bob Marley: One Love is already in January, so Color Purple will definitely be a wide release on Christmas. Unless the strike is somehow still going on by then, the cast + Oprah will be everywhere promoting it over the holidays.

I'm not convinced Bob Marley will be that successful and a limited release for TCP can still mean promotion during December.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

3 hours ago, lab276 said:

 

To be fair, 2023 was ahead for every (or almost every) week before that.

 

That's correct, and that emphasizes how weak June 2023 was. Like the momentum was suddenly halted.

[joselowe]

4 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I'm not convinced Bob Marley will be that successful and a limited release for TCP can still mean promotion during December.

 

 

Bob will actually be bigger than TCP. TCP trailer has 9 million views after one month of release and The Bob Marley trailer has 14 million views in 7 days. I’d dare to say that after Michael Jackson, Bob Marley is the most famous black singer of all time worldwide. Please don’t underestimate the power of Bob! Even if the film isn’t good it has potential for Bohemian Rhapsody numbers or at least close to it. 

[Bob Train]

9 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

2022 has won the last FOUR weekends. That's how terrible June was.

June was a billion dollar month, that says more about where the tentpoles were distributed than anything else.

 

We had a big stretch from Fast X to Flash of tentpoles, and that stretch was much higher than last year.  

 

From Flash to MI7 though, Indy has been the only high profile tentpole, compared to last year where the much bigger Thor 4 and Minions 2 release.

[Grebacio]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:58 PM, poweranimals said:

So what do you guys think will be the #1 movie for the second half of the year?

Barbie

[deniima]

Yea seems clear that Barbie will be #1 for the 2nd half of 2023. The better question is what will be the #2 movie? I'd say The Marvels is the frontrunner but something else topping it wouldn't shock me... (MIDR, Aquaman, Wonka, Wish, Hunger Games, Dune?).

[deniima]

On 5/5/2023 at 9:37 PM, deniima said:

My last-minute Summer DOM predictions

 

1. The Flash - $390M 

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $360M 

3. The Little Mermaid - $335M 

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $310M 

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $300M 

6. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $295M 

7. Barbie - $205M 

8. Fast X - $165M

9. Oppenheimer - $145M 

10. Elemental - $140M 

11. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $140M 

12. Blue Beetle - $135M 

13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $115M 

14. The Meg 2 - $105M 

15. Haunted Mansion - $90M 

 

i couldn't have picked a more wrong top 2, jeez  

[WorkingonaName]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:31 AM, WorkingonaName said:

 

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

 

Couldn't have predicted a better top two. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[stripe]

15 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Nothing to worry about.

2022 May, June and early July were strong and almost on par with prepandemic levels.

2023 Summer will close the gap in the following weeks and will finish over last year's Summer. Moreover, September, October and November 2023 schedule look way stronger than 2022.

More things to be happy about: the gross spreads to more films this year.

[MattW]

With both barbie and oppy blowing up July 2023 will end up topping last year's July by a small margin, but August is going to absolutely destroy the last 2 years, could even come close to 2017's level (admittedly a weak Aug). I bet MI7 also plays strong through the month and all three get a big bump for labor day giving Sept a strong start as well.