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2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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14 minutes ago, MattW said:

With both barbie and oppy blowing up July 2023 will end up topping last year's July by a small margin, but August is going to absolutely destroy the last 2 years, could even come close to 2017's level (admittedly a weak Aug). I bet MI7 also plays strong through the month and all three get a big bump for labor day giving Sept a strong start as well.

The problem facing MI 7 is the theater chains can start dumping it this week and give screens to barbie and oppenheimer if they feel those will do a lot better which based on this weekend will be the case. 

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Holy shit...

 

Barbenheimer weekend ≈ 300m

Barbenheimer weekdays ≈  150m

weekend of July 28-30 ≈ 210m

July 31 ≈ 25m

 

300+150+210+25 = 685m

 

685+current July total (623m) = 1.308b

 

We're in for a 1.3b+ July...

Edited by Bob Train
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On 7/13/2023 at 4:17 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 07 - Jul 09 / $129,464,076

2022 / Jul 08 - Jul 10 / $238,358,457

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 27)

 

2023

01 | 573.8M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 357.7M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 357.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 289.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 597.4M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.0M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 350.5M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 210.7M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 190.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 14 - Jul 16 / $140,138,793

2022 / Jul 15 - Jul 17 / $132,813,074

 

WINS

2023: 19 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 28)

 

2023

01 | 573.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 368.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.5M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 294.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 618.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.2M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 359.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 263.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 233.9M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 7/13/2023 at 4:24 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 573.8M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 360.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 357.8M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 290.5M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 148.3M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

09 | 145.9M | FAST X

10 | 128.8M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

11 | 113.3M | ELEMENTAL

12 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

13 | 105.8M | THE FLASH

14 | 095.0M | M3GAN

15 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

13 | 100M movies

20 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.0M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 372.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.7M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 295.4M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 154.5M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

09 | 152.3M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

 

11 | 131.4M | ELEMENTAL

12 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

13 | 107.2M | THE FLASH

14 | 104.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

15 | 099.3M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

14 | 100M movies

23 | 050M movies

Edited by kayumanggi
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On 7/22/2023 at 7:53 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 14 - Jul 16 / $140,138,793

2022 / Jul 15 - Jul 17 / $132,813,074

 

WINS

2023: 19 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 28)

 

2023

01 | 573.9M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 368.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.5M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 294.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 618.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.2M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 359.9M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 263.4M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 233.9M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 21 - Jul 23 / $311,251,032

2022 / Jul 22 - Jul 24 / $126,239,585

 

WINS

2023: 20 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 29)

 

2023

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 375.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 296.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 635.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 365.7M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 298.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 276.7M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 7/22/2023 at 7:59 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.0M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 372.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.7M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 295.4M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 154.5M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

09 | 152.3M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 146.0M | FAST X

 

 

11 | 131.4M | ELEMENTAL

12 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

13 | 107.2M | THE FLASH

14 | 104.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

15 | 099.3M | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

14 | 100M movies

23 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 375.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 296.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 188.1M | BARBIE

07 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

08 | 160.0M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

09 | 156.2M | CREED III

10 | 155.8M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

 

11 | 146.0M | FAST X

12 | 138.1M | ELEMENTAL

13 | 127.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

14 | 121.0M | MISSION: IMOPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

15 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

16 | 100M movies

25 | 050M movies

Edited by kayumanggi
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On 7/22/2023 at 8:39 AM, Bob Train said:

Holy shit...

 

Barbenheimer weekend ≈ 300m

Barbenheimer weekdays ≈  150m

weekend of July 28-30 ≈ 210m

July 31 ≈ 25m

 

300+150+210+25 = 685m

 

685+current July total (623m) = 1.308b

 

We're in for a 1.3b+ July...

 

What an incredible end of July!

Already at 982.5M after Monday. Add for the rest of the week: 45+35+30=110M

Next weekend it will be interesting to see what happens. IMO, we can expect something like this:
Barbie 85M

Oppenheimer 45M

Haunted Mansion 30M

SoF 15M

MI7 12M

Rest 15-20M
So 205M

 

For sure over 1.3b

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Summer 2023 I think will end up about 10% ahead of summer 2022, about 15% behind the prepandemic avg summer. 

But of course you also have to look at the "cost of goods" as they say. Without really delving into it I'd guess hollywood collectively spent a lot more getting their product to market this year than in most years. 

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On 7/22/2023 at 1:39 AM, Bob Train said:

Holy shit...

 

Barbenheimer weekend ≈ 300m

Barbenheimer weekdays ≈  150m

weekend of July 28-30 ≈ 210m

July 31 ≈ 25m

 

300+150+210+25 = 685m

 

685+current July total (623m) = 1.308b

 

We're in for a 1.3b+ July...

Scratch that.

 

Barbenheimer weekend = 311.3

Jul 24-27 ≈ 180

Jul 28-30 (Barb 90 + Opp 45 + HM 30 + SoF 15 + MI7 11 + TTM 8 + IJ5 4 + Ele 4 + Ins 3) ≈ 215m

July 31 ≈ 25m

 

≈1.35b July

 

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https://deadline.com/2023/08/barbie-oppenheimer-july-box-office-record-1235452876/

....the second-best record for the month with $1.37 billion per Comscore...

 

Mojo and the-numbers don't quite capture everything, 2nd best july and thus 2nd best month of all time. 

 

August looks much better than last year but I don't see it getting back to the pre-pandemic level. Over 600m would be great.  Edit, it's gonna be way bigger than 600, maybe 750ish?

Also August is surprisingly consistent, 2016-2019 averages 843m, 2012-2019 averages 871m, and take it back to 2007 and it actually goes up to 880m. And August 1999 made 848m which with normal inflation would be over 1500 today.

 

Which has me curious, to serve so many more people back then were there more theaters then? More screens? Or were all showtimes just fuller on average

 

Aug 15 edit: ~800m for August

Sept 500

Oct 450

Nov 750

Edited by MattW
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44 minutes ago, MattW said:

https://deadline.com/2023/08/barbie-oppenheimer-july-box-office-record-1235452876/

....the second-best record for the month with $1.37 billion per Comscore...

 

Mojo and the-numbers don't quite capture everything, 2nd best july and thus 2nd best month of all time. 

 

August looks much better than last year but I don't see it getting back to the pre-pandemic level. Over 600m would be great.

Also August is surprisingly consistent, 2016-2019 averages 843m, 2012-2019 averages 871m, and take it back to 2007 and it actually goes up to 880m. And August 1999 made 848m which with normal inflation would be over 1500 today.

 

Which has me curious, to serve so many more people back then were there more theaters then? More screens? Or were all showtimes just fuller on average

Covid closures took out some locations. Even before then, second-run/dollar theaters were a thing in 1998 and added a nice boost to the lower rungs of the charts. A lot of smaller theaters that existed back then are gone and weren't all consolidated into bigger chains, some were just turned into condos or whatever.

 

As attendance began declining, many theaters reduced seating capacity by putting in recliners or becoming dine-in locations. AMC built some 30 screen multiplexes when demand was high, and many have since become 17 screen locations--they just close off a whole wing of the building. Location counts alone don't tell the story, there are less seats than before.

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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On 7/26/2023 at 7:08 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 21 - Jul 23 / $311,251,032

2022 / Jul 22 - Jul 24 / $126,239,585

 

WINS

2023: 20 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 29)

 

2023

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 375.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 296.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 635.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 365.7M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 298.2M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 276.7M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jul 28 - Jul 30 / $213,582,186

2022 / Jul 29 - Jul 31 / $97,884,255

 

WINS

2023: 21 weekends

2022: 09 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 30)

 

2023

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 378.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 351.4M | BARBIE

05 | 296.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

2022

01 | 650.3M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

02 | 411.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

03 | 369.6M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

04 | 320.5M | MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

05 | 301.6M | THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER

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On 7/26/2023 at 7:16 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 375.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

03 | 358.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

04 | 296.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 188.1M | BARBIE

07 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

08 | 160.0M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

09 | 156.2M | CREED III

10 | 155.8M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

 

11 | 146.0M | FAST X

12 | 138.1M | ELEMENTAL

13 | 127.6M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

14 | 121.0M | MISSION: IMOPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

15 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

03 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

16 | 100M movies

25 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 574.2M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 394.6M | BARBIE

03 | 379.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 359.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

05 | 297.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

06 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

07 | 194.3M | OPPENHEIMER

08 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

09 | 168.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

10 | 156.8M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

 

11 | 156.2M | CREED III

12 | 155.0M | SOUND OF FREEDOM

13 | 146.7M | ELEMENTAL

14 | 146.0M | FAST X

15 | 143.4M | MISSION: IMOPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

 

---

 

5 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

04 | 300M movies

06 | 200M movies

17 | 100M movies

26 | 050M movies

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My updated predictions 

 

BO

  1. Barbie - 162m / 680m
  2. The Super Mario Bros Movie - 146m / 574m
  3. Dune: Part II - 125m / 410m
  4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - 120.6m / 385m
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - 118.4m / 360m
  6. Oppenheimer - 82m / 320m
  7. The Little Mermaid - 95m / 299m
  8. Wish - 70m / 280m
  9. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 65m / 260m
  10. Migration - 45m / 220m
  11. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 106m / 214m
  12. The Marvels - 85m / 190m
  13. John Wick Chapter 4 - 74m / 187m
  14. Killers of the Flower Moon - 40m / 185m
  15. The Sound of Freedom - 20m / 180m
  16. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - 60m / 175m
  17. The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - 70m / 170m
  18. Wonka - 45m / 170m
  19. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 - 54.6m / 165m
  20. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 61m / 158m
  21. Creed 3 - 58m / 156m
  22. Elemental - 29.6m / 155m
  23. The Color Purple - 30m / 150m
  24. Fast X - 67m / 145m
  25. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 26m / 140m
  26. The Creator - 35m / 120m
  27. Trolls Band Together - 35m / 115m
  28. Strays - 35m / 115m
  29. Five Nights at Freddy’s - 50m / 110m
  30. The Flash - 55m / 109m
  31. Scream VI - 44m / 108m
  32. Saw X - 45m / 100m
  33. The Equalizer 3 - 35m / 100m
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