MattW Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) With the flash underperforming somewhat, Elemental and No Hard Feelings also not bringing anything to the table, and Indiana Jones looking increasingly like it'll open right about at Flash's level (and even if a bit higher it's just previews+opening day), I think June will come in at around 960-ish million, basically even with last june, which is quite good. My guess is we'll see about 700-750 from July releases (including Indi5) and ~125 from holdovers for a total between 800 and 900. The previous average July (2016-2019) was 1268. Still, this year is well ahead of 2022 with every month either being roughly even with last year (March+May+June) or well ahead of it (Jan+Feb+Apr). July will be the first month to fall significantly behind. Aug+Sept I'll guess will be roughly even, Oct and beyond too soon to tell. July 14 Edit: With new info on MI7 and Barbenheimer July looks like it should come in in the range of 1050-1100 million. That's counting around 250 from barbie (approx value if it opens in the 130-150 range), and 100-110 from Opp if it does similar to Dunkirk's numbers. Both could be much higher, we'll see. Worse case 100m less than July 2022, but these strong late July releases will carry this year into August much stronger than the July releases did last year meaning this year will maintain a significant lead all the way through the end of the summer season. In fact MI, Barbie and Opp, all three could very well play strongly into September boosting that month well above last year. Oct will likely be as bad or worse than last year looking at the schedule. Nov too early to tell Edited July 15, 2023 by MattW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 On 6/16/2023 at 1:27 PM, kayumanggi said: year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 09 - Jun 11 / $165,293,188 2022 / Jun 10 - Jun 12 / $214,852,641 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 05 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (WEEKEND 23) 2023 01 | 570.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 335.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 229.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 04 | 225.5M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 398.1M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 02 | 395.2M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 03 | 189.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 04 | 148.4M | UNCHARTED 05 | 145.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 16 - Jun 18 / $163,789,317 2022 / Jun 17 - Jun 19 / $164,531,244 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 06 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 24) 2023 01 | 572.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 344.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 279.6M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 253.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 466.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 405.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 250.3M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 190.5M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 05 | 148.5M | UNCHARTED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2022 won against 2023 last weekend. That's how bad it was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 On 6/16/2023 at 1:46 PM, kayumanggi said: 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 571.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 338.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 247.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 239.4M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 140.0M | FAST X 09 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 10 | 095.0M | M3GAN 11 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 12 | 077.6M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 13 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE 14 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR 15 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS --- 3 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 4 - UNIVERSAL 2 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 02 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 09 | 100M movies 17 | 050M movies 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 572.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 347.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 297.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 261.6M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 143.5M | FAST X 09 | 111.3M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 11 | 095.0M | M3GAN 12 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 13 | 072.4M | THE FLASH 14 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE 15 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR --- 3 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 4 - UNIVERSAL 2 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 02 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 10 | 100M movies 18 | 050M movies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 On 6/23/2023 at 7:53 PM, MattW said: With the flash underperforming somewhat, Elemental and No Hard Feelings also not bringing anything to the table, and Indiana Jones looking increasingly like it'll open right about at Flash's level (and even if a bit higher it's just previews+opening day), I think June will come in at around 960-ish million, basically even with last june, which is quite good. My guess is we'll see about 700-750 from July releases (including Indi5) and ~125 from holdovers for a total between 800 and 900. The previous average July (2016-2019) was 1268. Still, this year is well ahead of 2022 with every month either being roughly even with last year (March+May+June) or well ahead of it (Jan+Feb+Apr). July will be the first month to fall significantly behind. Aug+Sept I'll guess will be roughly even, Oct and beyond too soon to tell. I still have faith June will cross 1b. Right now we are at 900M. Monday-Thursday we could see a cumulative gross of 60M+. Then, Indy opening should easily boost Friday to 40M+. Anyways, Flash killed a potential 1.1b June. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) On 6/1/2023 at 4:31 PM, stripe said: Time for May's recap and June's forecast May closed around 60M under my predicted cumulative gross. LOL at my predictions besides tentpoles. We need more middle ground success stories! In the end, May'23 closed just behind May'22. June's predictions: Openers (800M) Across the Spiderverse: 300M Boogeyman: 40M Transformers: 80M Asteroid City: 10M Blackening: 20M Elemental: 90M Flash: 180M No Hard Feelings: 35M Indiana Jones 5: 30M Ruby Gillman: 5M Rest: 10M Holdovers (230M) TLM: 120M Guardians: 45M FastX: 35M Rest: 30M June Cumulative gross: 1,030M, slightly over last year's (970M). We could see higher numbers for Spiderverse, Elemental, Flash, No Hard Feelings... June's recap and July's forecast This month began nicely, but last half greatly disappointed. Spiderverse (+30M), Mermaid (+15M) and Transformers (+50M) overperformed my predictions, but then The Flash (-90M), Elemental (-10M) and NHF (-10M) went under. The rest I was quite spot on, waiting for Indiana Jones OD. In the end, the gross should be very close to that 1,030M I guessed. July's predictions: Openers (675M) Insidious: 40M Joy Ride: 30M Mission Impossible 7: 200M Barbie: 220M Oppenheimer: 140M Talk to Me: 5M Haunted Mansion: 30M Rest: 10M Holdovers (430M) Indiana Jones: 200M NHF: 30M Ruby Gillman: 15M Elemental: 50M Flash: 15M Transformers: 15M Spiderverse: 45M Asteroid City: 20M Rest: 40M Cumulative gross: 1,100M. Almost on par with last year's july (1,133M) Edited June 27, 2023 by stripe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Meg 2 is my wildcard breakout, it's the sort of dumb movie that audiences love. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 7:48 PM, kayumanggi said: year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 16 - Jun 18 / $163,789,317 2022 / Jun 17 - Jun 19 / $164,531,244 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 06 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 24) 2023 01 | 572.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 344.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 279.6M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 253.0M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 466.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 405.3M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 250.3M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 190.5M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 05 | 148.5M | UNCHARTED year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 23 - Jun 25 / $109,097,190 2022 / Jun 24 - Jun 26 / $134,597,965 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 07 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 25) 2023 01 | 573.0M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 351.1M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 316.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 270.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 520.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 409.2M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 303.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 190.7M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 05 | 148.6M | UNCHARTED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 2022 won again last weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 7:55 PM, kayumanggi said: 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 572.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 347.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 297.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 261.6M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 143.5M | FAST X 09 | 111.3M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 11 | 095.0M | M3GAN 12 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 13 | 072.4M | THE FLASH 14 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE 15 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR --- 3 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 4 - UNIVERSAL 2 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 02 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 10 | 100M movies 18 | 050M movies 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 573.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 353.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 328.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 275.8M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 145.2M | FAST X 09 | 131.0M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 11 | 095.7M | THE FLASH 12 | 095.0M | M3GAN 13 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 14 | 080.9M | ELEMENTAL 15 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE --- 4 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 3 - UNIVERSAL 2 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 03 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 10 | 100M movies 19 | 050M movies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 It’s crazy that June of this year was ahead of 2022 even with everything but Spidey flopping, just shows how barren the schedule was last year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 (edited) On 6/14/2022 at 10:33 AM, Juby said: Isn't it this year? My first raw forecast for 2023: Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 - $450m Indiana Jones 5 - $375m ($300-400m range) The Marvels - $300m Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $290m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $270m Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $250m The Flash - $250m Dune: Part Two - $215m John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200m Wonka - $180m Oppenheimer - $175m Fast X = $165m Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m Blue Beetle = $150m I know there'll be also TLM, Mario film, Sony-verse movies, and some Disney and Pixar animations, but I don't have anything for them yet. I'll update my list at the end of December. Updated: The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $574m Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 - $450m $360m Indiana Jones 5 - $375m ($300-400m range) $170m The Marvels - $300m $210m (now I don't believe it will be bigger "hit" than Ant-Man) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $290m $205m Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $270m $390m Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $250m $214.5m (I was pretty close with this one) The Flash - $250m $109m Dune: Part Two - $215m John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200m $187m (also close) Wonka - $180m Oppenheimer - $175m Fast X = $165m $147m (I told'ya) Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m (maybe?) Blue Beetle = $150m $50m (it won't beat Shazam!!) A very surprising year so far. Edited July 5, 2023 by Juby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Assuming MI7, Barbie, Dune, The Marvels and Aquaman all do $600M+ worldwide, The Little Mermaid is gonna be the 10th biggest Hollywood film globally this year with a sub $600M total. Damn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted July 4, 2023 Share Posted July 4, 2023 On 7/2/2023 at 12:37 PM, Flip said: It’s crazy that June of this year was ahead of 2022 even with everything but Spidey flopping, just shows how barren the schedule was last year Yeah. I imagine it's a tough job for studios to evaluate how the recovery is going so they can spread their resources appropriately, they seem to have collectively over-estimated how much it would have progressed this year. Next year doesn't look great schedule-wise and the under performance of so many blockbusters this year might make them a bit skittish going forward. Right now I'd guess overall revenue for 2024 will be lower than 2023. But who knows, we'll see. Perusing this Forbes article that was posted in the weekend thread, it still sounds like exhibitors are still the ones to worry about though ("...it hasn't been such a fairy tale for theaters..." near the end), not distributors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potiki Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 Major Studios YTD Box Office Domestic: Disney - $1.35B Universal - $1.13B Sony - $589m Paramount - $398m Warner Bros. - $264m Worldwide: Disney - $3.4B Universal - $2.89B Sony - $1.1B Warner Bros. - $898m Paramount - $871m source: https://deadline.com/2023/07/disney-2023-box-office-summer-marvel-indiana-jones-1235431049/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 On 7/2/2023 at 7:55 PM, kayumanggi said: year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 23 - Jun 25 / $109,097,190 2022 / Jun 24 - Jun 26 / $134,597,965 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 07 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 25) 2023 01 | 573.0M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 351.1M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 316.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 270.1M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 520.8M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 409.2M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 303.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 190.7M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 05 | 148.6M | UNCHARTED year / weekend / overall gross 2023 / Jun 30 - Jul 02 / $128,186,797 2022 / Jul 01 - Jul 03 / $189,927,071 2023 / Jun 30 - Jul 04 / $196,319,724 2022 / Jul 01 - Jul 04 / $223,580,059 WINS 2023: 18 weekends 2022: 08 weekends TOP 5 MOVIES (AS OF WEEKEND 26) 2023 01 | 573.6M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 356.1M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 346.0M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 283.8M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 2022 01 | 570.7M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK 02 | 410.6M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS 03 | 335.8M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION 04 | 190.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II 05 | 148.6M | UNCHARTED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 On 7/2/2023 at 8:05 PM, kayumanggi said: 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 573.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 353.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 328.4M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 275.8M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 145.2M | FAST X 09 | 131.0M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 11 | 095.7M | THE FLASH 12 | 095.0M | M3GAN 13 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 14 | 080.9M | ELEMENTAL 15 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE --- 4 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 3 - UNIVERSAL 2 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 03 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 10 | 100M movies 19 | 050M movies 2023 TOP 15 MOVIES 01 | 573.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE 02 | 356.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III 03 | 349.6M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 04 | 285.5M | THE LITTLE MERMAID 05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA 06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV 07 | 156.2M | CREED III 08 | 145.8M | FAST X 09 | 141.7M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS 10 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI 11 | 102.9M | THE FLASH 12 | 099.6M | ELEMENTAL 13 | 095.0M | M3GAN 14 | 094.7M | INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY 15 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES --- 5 - DISNEY 1 - LIONSGATE 3 - PARAMOUNT 1 - SONY 3 - UNIVERSAL 1 - WARNER BROS. 1 - OTHERS --- 01 | 500M movies 01 | 400M movies 03 | 300M movies 05 | 200M movies 11 | 100M movies 20 | 050M movies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 So what do you guys think will be the #1 movie for the second half of the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 I wonder when Universal plans to start promotion for Exorcist: Believer because they're beginning to run out of viable movies they could premiere it before (lol if it's their big attachment before Oppenheimer). Unless it's headed to 2024 as strike insurance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, filmlover said: I wonder when Universal plans to start promotion for Exorcist: Believer because they're beginning to run out of viable movies they could premiere it before (lol if it's their big attachment before Oppenheimer). Unless it's headed to 2024 as strike insurance. A trailer has been rated and is supposed to be out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
