2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[kayumanggi]

On 5/29/2023 at 2:51 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 549.1M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 267.0M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.4M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 185.3M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

07 | 095.0M | M3GAN

08 | 092.9M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | 067.0M | FAST X

10 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

 

11 | 064.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

13 | 052.3M | AIR

14 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

15 | 039.3M | 80 FOR BRADY

 

---

 

2 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

01 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

06 | 100M movies

14 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 562.4M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 310.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 186.7M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 138.6M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 117.8M | FAST X

08 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

09 | 095.0M | M3GAN

10 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

11 | 066.7M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

13 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

14 | 052.5M | AIR

15 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

---

 

3 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

02 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

08 | 100M movies

15 | 050M movies

Edited June 2, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

Finally, after this weekend (or after a day?), there is going to be a Sony film again in the top 15.

[stripe]

This has been the 16th consecutive weekend with a movie grossing 30M+. When will this streak end?
Looking at schedule first possible weekend to miss 30M is August 11th, with Gran Turismo opening and 2nd weekend of TMNT and The Meg 2.

After that weekend, Blue Beetle should open over 30M.

So the streak should finish at 25-27 weekend. 6 months. I cant recall any longer streak with 30M grossers.

[kayumanggi]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:27 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / May 26 - May 28 / $163,028,299

2022 / May 27- May 29 / $177,208,035

 

2023 / May 26 - May 29 / $203,634,667

2022 / May 27 - May 30 / $223,364,859

 

WINS

2023: 17 weekends

2022: 04 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jun 02 - Jun 04 / $205,144,296

2022 / Jun 03 - Jun 05 / $121,670,007

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 04 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:35 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 562.4M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 310.9M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 186.7M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | 156.2M | CREED III

 

06 | 138.6M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

07 | 117.8M | FAST X

08 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

09 | 095.0M | M3GAN

10 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

 

11 | 066.7M | EVIL DEAD RISE

12 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

13 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

14 | 052.5M | AIR

15 | 052.1M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

---

 

3 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

0 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

02 | 300M movies

03 | 200M movies

08 | 100M movies

15 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 567.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 327.2M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 201.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 187.0M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

 

06 | 159.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 132.1M | FAST X

09 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

10 | 095.0M | M3GAN

 

11 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

12 | 067.1M | EVIL DEAD RISE

13 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

14 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

15 | 052.5M | AIR

 

 

---

 

3 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

02 | 300M movies

04 | 200M movies

09 | 100M movies

16 | 050M movies

Edited June 16, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

On 6/7/2023 at 4:31 PM, stripe said:

This has been the 16th consecutive weekend with a movie grossing 30M+. When will this streak end?
Looking at schedule first possible weekend to miss 30M is August 11th, with Gran Turismo opening and 2nd weekend of TMNT and The Meg 2.

After that weekend, Blue Beetle should open over 30M.

So the streak should finish at 25-27 weekend. 6 months. I cant recall any longer streak with 30M grossers.

 

The longest one prior to 2023 was 2016 with 18 weekends. That's from THE JUNGLE BOOK in April to SUICIDE SQUAD in August.

[stripe]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The longest one prior to 2023 was 2016 with 18 weekends. That's from THE JUNGLE BOOK in April to SUICIDE SQUAD in August.

 

Incredible record then for 2023!

[kayumanggi]

41 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Incredible record then for 2023!

 

Thanks to THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE which basically started it all and the string of hits this summer, of course. So basically for this to happen, a year should have a big March or April opener plus strong supporting ones until summer begins.

[stripe]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Thanks to THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE which basically started it all and the string of hits this summer, of course. So basically for this to happen, a year should have a big March or April opener plus strong supporting ones until summer begins.

 

SMB wonderful April run was key to achieve that, but also a strong set of February/March openers. Ant Man, Creed, Scream, Shazam, Wick, D&D. 

Crazy to think that Shazam's opening and Ant Man second weekend were the ones to almost kill this record.

[kayumanggi]

37 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

SMB wonderful April run was key to achieve that, but also a strong set of February/March openers. Ant Man, Creed, Scream, Shazam, Wick, D&D. 

Crazy to think that Shazam's opening and Ant Man second weekend were the ones to almost kill this record.

 

Wait, I've just realized it actually started in mid-February. 😲 I don't see this record being broken anytime soon. Crazy record for 2023.

[Grebacio]

On 6/7/2023 at 5:31 AM, stripe said:

This has been the 16th consecutive weekend with a movie grossing 30M+. When will this streak end?
Looking at schedule first possible weekend to miss 30M is August 11th, with Gran Turismo opening and 2nd weekend of TMNT and The Meg 2.

After that weekend, Blue Beetle should open over 30M.

So the streak should finish at 25-27 weekend. 6 months. I cant recall any longer streak with 30M grossers.

There's a chance June 23-25 weekend ends that streak by a few millions

[Asyulus]

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $580M DOM - $1.38B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - $380M DOM - $1.18B WW

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $370M DOM - $870M WW

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $440M DOM - $840M WW

5. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $240M DOM - $785M WW

6. Fast X - $160M DOM - $710M WW

7. The Marvels - $220M DOM - $585M WW

8. The Little Mermaid - $300M DOM - $540M WW

9. Meg 2: The Trench - $160M DOM - $520M WW

10. Migration - $150M DOM - $515M WW

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $215M DOM - $475M WW

12. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $185M DOM - $450M WW

13. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $180M DOM - $435M WW

14. Elemental - $160M DOM - $440M WW

15. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $130M DOM - $435M WW

16. Dune: Part Two - $180M DOM - $430M WW

17. The Flash - $150M DOM - $350M WW

18. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $130M DOM - $290M WW

19. Creed III - $155M DOM - $275M WW

20. Oppenheimer - $85M DOM - $260M WW

21. Wish - $80M DOM - $250M WW

22. Haunted Mansion - $90M DOM - $225M WW

23. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $75M DOM - $220M WW

24. Blue Beetle - $85M DOM - $215M WW

25. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - $95M DOM - $210M WW

26. Kraven the Hunter - $80M DOM - $200M WW

27. Barbie - $65M DOM - $185M WW

28. The Equalizer 3 - $100M DOM - $180M WW

29. Scream VI - $110M DOM - $170M WW

30. Wonka - $60M DOM - $155M WW

Edited June 12, 2023 by Asyulus

[stripe]

On 6/9/2023 at 7:52 PM, Grebacio said:

There's a chance June 23-25 weekend ends that streak by a few millions

 

You are right, but it would require both Flash and Elemental to extremely disappoint, IMHO. Proximity to ID will boost gross and in their second weekend they wont miss PLF. No Hard Feelings might also gross over 30M. If I have to guess, I would say all 3 will gross 30M+ that weekend, but not by much.

[MattW]

On 6/1/2023 at 8:31 AM, stripe said:

 

Time for May's recap and June's forecast
May closed around 60M under my predicted cumulative gross. LOL at my predictions besides tentpoles. We need more middle ground success stories! In the end, May'23 closed just behind May'22.

June's predictions:

Openers (800M)

Across the Spiderverse: 300M

Boogeyman: 40M

Transformers: 80M

Asteroid City: 10M

Blackening: 20M

Elemental: 90M

Flash: 180M

No Hard Feelings: 35M

Indiana Jones 5: 30M

Ruby Gillman: 5M

Rest: 10M

 

Holdovers (230M)

TLM: 120M

Guardians: 45M

FastX: 35M

Rest: 30M

 

June Cumulative gross: 1,030M, slightly over last year's (970M). We could see higher numbers for Spiderverse, Elemental, Flash, No Hard Feelings... 

 

June still looks good to hit a billion. Before 2020 the average June was 1150 which would put this month right at 90% of the prepandemic average, second best month of the recovery so far if that happens. 

 

2023 April 98%

2022 July 89%

2021 Oct 88%

2022 June 84%

2022 May 80%

2023 May 79%

2021 Dec 77%

[stripe]

19 minutes ago, MattW said:

 

June still looks good to hit a billion. Before 2020 the average June was 1150 which would put this month right at 90% of the prepandemic average, second best month of the recovery so far if that happens. 

 

2023 April 98%

2022 July 89%

2021 Oct 88%

2022 June 84%

2022 May 80%

2023 May 79%

2021 Dec 77%

 

After Transformers and SV overperformance, I am very confident June 2023 will hit around 1.1b. It could challenge April 2023 for best month of the recovery.
Let's see if Flash, Elemental and No Hard Feelings can deliver. I am very worried about the former.

[titanic2187]

Flash trending lower really put June back down to no-so-comfort $1bn range. In fact, Flash underperformance could also impact July gross, especially considering last year we had both Minion 2 and Thor 4 contributed $300m each but none of MI7, Indy 5, Barbie or Oppen have $300m look so far, or at least for the July itself.  

[WorkingonaName]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:31 AM, WorkingonaName said:

 

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

3. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $1B

4. The Flash: $850M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 2: $850M

6. Across the Spider-verse: $750M

7. Fast X: $750M

8. How do you live?: $700M

9. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $700M

10. Dune 2: $700M

11. Indiana Jones and The Dial Of Desinty: $700M

12. The Marvels": $650M

13. The Meg 2: $600M

14. The Little Mermaid: $550M

15. Wonka: $500M

16. Ant-man and the wasp quantomania: $450M

17. John Wick 4: $450M

18. Five Nights at Freddy's: $400M

19. Hunger Games: $350M

20. killers of the flower moon: $300M

update

 

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.35B

2. Barbie: $1B

3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1: $1B

4. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3: $850M

5. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $800M

6. Fast X: $700M

7. Dune 2: $700M

8. Across the Spider-verse: $700M

9. How do you live?" $650M

10. The Meg 2: $600M

11. Little Mermaid: $550M

12. Oppenheimer: $500M

13. Wonka: $500M

14. The Flash: $500M

15. The Marvels: $500M

16. Indiana Jones and The Dial Of Destiny: $500M

17. John Wick 4: $450M

18. Ant-Man 3: $450M

19. FNAF: $400M

20. Transformers: Rise of the beast: $400M

21. Wish: $400M

22. Hunger games: $350M

23. Elemental: $350M

24. Killers of the Flower Moon: $300M

25. migration: $300M

[kayumanggi]

On 6/9/2023 at 1:29 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jun 02 - Jun 04 / $205,144,296

2022 / Jun 03 - Jun 05 / $121,670,007

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 04 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jun 09 - Jun 11 / $165,293,188

2022 / Jun 10 - Jun 12 / $214,852,641

 

WINS

2023: 18 weekends

2022: 05 weekends

 

TOP 5 MOVIES (WEEKEND 23)

 

2023

01 | 570.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 335.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 229.2M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

04 | 225.5M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

2022

01 | 398.1M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

02 | 395.2M | TOP GUN: MAVERICK

03 | 189.9M | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG II

04 | 148.4M | UNCHARTED

05 | 145.1M | JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

On 6/9/2023 at 1:40 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 567.7M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 327.2M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

04 | 201.9M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 187.0M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

 

06 | 159.8M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 132.1M | FAST X

09 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

10 | 095.0M | M3GAN

 

11 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

12 | 067.1M | EVIL DEAD RISE

13 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

14 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

15 | 052.5M | AIR

 

 

---

 

3 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

02 | 300M movies

04 | 200M movies

09 | 100M movies

16 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 571.3M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 338.6M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

03 | 247.3M | SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

04 | 239.4M | THE LITTLE MERMAID

05 | 214.5M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

06 | 187.1M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

07 | 156.2M | CREED III

08 | 140.0M | FAST X

09 | 108.2M | SCREAM VI

10 | 095.0M | M3GAN

 

11 | 093.3M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

12 | 077.6M | TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

13 | 067.2M | EVIL DEAD RISE

14 | 064.4M | COCAINE BEAR

15 | 057.6M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

 

---

 

3 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 500M movies

01 | 400M movies

02 | 300M movies

05 | 200M movies

09 | 100M movies

17 | 050M movies

[kayumanggi]

2023 has passed $4 billion.