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TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

By Eric is Quiet, in Numbers and Data

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TOP GUN PREVIEWS

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

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23 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:


Pretty silly. Even when you exclude the $13M of Thursday preview money, Pirates 3 made $186M in 2022 dollars from Friday to Monday.
 

This $186M inflation number does not even factor in that Pirates 3 did not benefit from premium tickets like IMAX, RPX, Dolby Cinema. Those formats did not exist for Hollywood movies until 2008 and later. 

 

No doubt. It's actually probably even higher given expanded nature of previews. Still great for TG:M but May 2007 was utter insanity. With reasonable inflation applied, this is basically what happened:

 

May 4-6: Spider-man 3 - $260M

May 18-20: Shrek 3 -$230m

May 25-27: Pirates 3 -$205m 3-day/$245m 4 day/$265m 4 1/2 day

 

Many popcorn machines likely needed replacement after that month. 

Edited by excel1
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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

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4 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

A Star Wars movie only tbf can't see any superhero/franchise movie doing it.

 

IDK about 100 million tickets, but a well-done, properly released Superman film could get really far up there. It has the massiests of mass appeals. It would have the true scale, the romance, the sci-fi, strong appeal both urban and rural Americas, etc. It would need a mainstream commercially-minded director/producer (not some emo-artsy type) and proper release strategy. 

Edited by excel1
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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

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1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

A well-done, properly released Superman film could it. It has the massiests of mass appeals. It would have the true scale, the romance, the sci-fi, strong appeal both urban and rural Americas, etc. It would need a mainstream commercially-minded director/producer (not some emo-artsy type) and proper release strategy. 

 

Not a shot. 

 

100M tickets would be $1.1-1.2B at this point. There's no way in hell any Superman movie is getting near that. Not even half that. 

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SupermanLego Indie Sensation

SupermanLego

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3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

IDK about 100 million tickets, but a well-done, properly released Superman film could get really far up there. It has the massiests of mass appeals. It would have the true scale, the romance, the sci-fi, strong appeal both urban and rural Americas, etc. It would need a mainstream commercially-minded director/producer (not some emo-artsy type) and proper release strategy. 

The only superhero movies I can see gettting close is a really good superman movie with strong american/patriosim, a crazy batman vs joker movie and spidey/batman cross over movie.

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

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Bad drops for both Men and Downton Abbey 2, both down around -65% in their second weekends despite decent critic reviews and the holiday boost. Both join Firestarter (which just fell -85% in its third weekend) as the second and third wide-release flops of the summer already. 

 

Meanwhile, The Bad Guys is at around a 3.5x multiplier. 

Edited by Krissykins
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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

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I don't think people realize how hard selling 100M tickets would be. Only one film in the last 25 years has sold that amount guaranteed (Titanic). TFA got close but the 3D skew inflated it's average quite decently, so it probably came in around 93-95M. Even monsters like Endgame and No Way Home "only" did about 83M and 70M, respectively. 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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48 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

SATURDAY LATE NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM: Who the heck knew that simple box office accounting would provide such a headache 15 years later?

Disney is claiming at this point in time that they continue to have the all-time Memorial Day opening record with 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End with $153M. This includes the pure Friday through Monday of $139.8M over the May 25-28 holiday, plus $13.2M made on Thursday, May 24 in early shows.

 

Box Office Mojo made note of that $13.2M on Thursday, but never rolled it into the overall 4-day weekend opening of At World’s End. This was part of an early policy they had before Thursday previews became more common not to include those monies in the weekend because Thursday wasn’t part of the 3-day. At World’s End was one of the early Thursday night preview experiments (there had been others such as 1997’s Lost World: Jurassic Park). Meanwhile, box office stat org Comscore, the last we checked, didn’t have any type of record of these Thursday previews. Hence, the confusion. On paper, At World’s End, with $13.2M in previews looks like a 5-day opener, not 4-day. Both Comscore and Mojo measured the 4-day holiday Memorial Day record for At World’s End at $139.8M.

 

Since roughly 2013, all Thursday preview monies for a movie gets rolled into its opening day Friday, and that’s a policy which has been respected by all the majors. Disney told Deadline yesterday that internally they’ve included At World’s Thursday night preview money in the pic’s Friday opening number.

 

In Paramount’s eyes, Top Gun: Maverick with a 4-day opening of $150M (which includes $19.3M Thursday previews, rolled into Friday), is the new Memorial Day weekend champion. We hear at this point in time, Top Gun 2 is still at $150M over 4-days after a $37M Saturday. Should Top Gun 2 clear $153M+ by EOD Monday, this whole fight about who’s the king of the Memorial Day box office goes away.

faltu ka issue. obviously its 153 of PoTC 3. historically everything with thursday previews should be added to OW.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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Just now, T-ReXXR said:

I don't think people realize how hard selling 100M tickets would be. Only one film in the last 25 years has sold that amount guaranteed (Titanic). TFA got close but the 3D skew inflated it's average quite decently, so it probably came in around 93-95M. Even monsters like Endgame and No Way Home "only" did about 83M and 70M, respectively. 

 

Yeah those older films that did sell over 100M tickets also did so with the help of multiple re-releases that spanned over decades.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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21 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Isnt it worse then just Thursday?   Revenue is being counted for 7 calander days Tues-Monday for TG:M "4-day memorial weekend" isnt it?  Kind of a farce if they take a victory lap on that imo.   Edit: Its a farce if they needed the Tues/Wed on top of Thursday numbers.   If they beat them but not by pirates Thursday numbers they should just keep quite.   

Yeah, but the counter-argument is that those earlier shows are only cannibalizing demand from "normal" Thursday grosses, not separately adding on top of it. The only exception might be the EA, where PLF supply is limited, so those shows are not directly replicable on Thursday, at least not at same ATP

 

Its just really unusual for such a record to have stood for so long that these direct comparisons are murkier

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SupermanLego Indie Sensation

SupermanLego

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

I don't think people realize how hard selling 100M tickets would be. Only one film in the last 25 years has sold that amount guaranteed (Titanic). TFA got close but the 3D skew inflated it's average quite decently, so it probably came in around 93-95M. Even monsters like Endgame and No Way Home "only" did about 83M and 70M, respectively. 

A DC/Marvel cross over movie could get there.

Edited by SupermanLego
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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

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7 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

The only superhero movies I can see gettting close is a really good superman movie with strong american/patriosim, a crazy batman vs joker movie and spidey/batman cross over movie.

 

Superman has the Americana angle and literally checks every box. Base level of fame is massive, major appeal to young and old, male and female, sci-fi and modern, urban and rural. It just needs to be done right. Imagine what we would be predicting if the below was taking place right now:

 

Concept:

JJ Abrams directing a mainstream, traditional Superman origin film with Euphoria youngster Jacob Elordi as Superman and a slew of veterans and names around him major roles. 

 

Release

The only major Christmas release of 2023 now that Rogue Squadron clearly isn't happening. 

 

Marketing

Aggressive, bright, action packed, Americana and military presence- think Marvel or prime Bay/Bruckheimer. 

 

Reception

Imagine if it was a FORCE AWAKENS/STAR TREK type of crowd pleaser. 

 

An opening in the $150m range followed by a large multiplier is totally possible. 

 

8 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

Not a shot. 

 

100M tickets would be $1.1-1.2B at this point. There's no way in hell any Superman movie is getting near that. Not even half that. 

 

I misread the 100m figure and edited. 

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