WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

One might think that’s Disney’s plan and patience in building up the MCU, or even how they handled the Pirates franchise after the unexpected success of the first, would be something other studios would seek to emulate … but mostly no. Instead they just throw everything they can into single Movie X, then try to “fix” the bad and reuse the “good” in the sequels, ultimately shedding viewers rather than building a sustainable fan base 

 

What gives me a bit of hope for a change of course is that Trevorrow said in a very recent interview that he would not return to the series and that also Pratt and BDH will not reprise their roles again. Sam Neill also said that Dominion would be the last movie of the original trio.

 

Yes, yes i know more often than not such statements dont hold that much weight, but the groundwork for a new direction for the series is certainly there.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Taruseth]

On 6/11/2022 at 2:24 PM, Taruseth said:

 

18m

42m

48m

38m

for 146m

 

14.5m

20m

16.5m

for 51m

 

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

47 and 20

So TG 2 will definitely get 50m 3rd weekend an #10 biggest 3rd weekend (#9 would need 52.521m - with 14.1m Friday, 20m Saturday it would need 18.4m Sunday, that's too high.

 

So JWD should open with 143-144m - 4-5m below JW2...

 

143 so total should be above 350m - but more than that isn't assured.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

47 and 20

 

47M would be a 13,2% increase from True Friday, a lot better than 10%. Basically secures 141M OW with 143 beeing a shot imo.

 

For Top Gun, a 44% drop from last Saturday.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

143 so total should be above 350m - but more than that isn't assured.

 

Agreed. 400M is not dead, but it will be very hard. 360 - 380M seems more likely.

 

2nd weekend drop will probably be sharp, but Dominion could stabilize in the weeks after like Fallen Kingdom.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

47 and 20

Nearly identical Fri/Sat increase as FK, don’t see why we should expect any different for Sun = ~$144M OW for JWD

 

A good Sat recovery for TG2, but may not see quite as good a Sunday hold as last week w/o PLF capacity rolling business forward - right around $50M, probably a tad under IMO (unless actuals are higher)

[wildphantom]

How do we know that a change in course for the type of movie Uni could do going forward would make them more money? I don’t see it. 
 

THE idea of all ideas was and always will be an amusement park with dinosaurs in it that break out. It’s been done. With the park both nearly open, and fully open to guests. 
 

The movie I wanted, and thought they were leading up to after FK, wasn’t the movie we’ve just gotten. But it’s still been a huge hit.  $900 million plus is hardly small change.  
But the law of diminishing returns box office wise is, to me at least, purely because the best idea has already been done. 
 

Dinosaurs out in the real world had endless possibilities, sure. That they didn’t do that doesn’t mean that if they did that this movie makes $300-400 million more worldwide though? We just don’t know. 
 

My concern with this particular franchise going forward now is that these endless possibilities of what you can do with dinos in the real world seems limited based on where the movie ends up. You’d almost have to go back and make a prequel of sorts. Which they might. 
 

At this point I’d just rather somebody else made a film with that premise, that doesn’t have to worry about it connecting with previous movies. 
 

 

[Mulder]

Also JW:D's budget was only about 15 million more than FK's lowest potential budget and two million less than FK's highest potential budget, at least officially. Universal will probably be happy about that fact too.

[DC Rich]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Agreed. 400M is not dead, but it will be very hard. 360 - 380M seems more likely.

 

2nd weekend drop will probably be sharp, but Dominion could stabilize in the weeks after like Fallen Kingdom.

 

I could see the sharp drop being split over the next two weeks.  It won't drop as much next week as we might think since it's Father's Day and it has a Monday Holiday which should help it.  It then drops a little bit more than what a normal 3rd weekend might because it is coming off that Father's Day\Holiday weekend.   

[The Dark Alfred]

The weeeknd number you were all waiting for...

 

-

(-)

Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story

Fin and Fur …

$63,650

-52%

61

-8

$1,043

$277,826

2

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

 

[Torontofan]

Top Gun Locked for 500 million?

[awkwardaardvark]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Top Gun Locked for 500 million?

Absolutely. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Torontofan said:

Top Gun Locked for 500 million?

 

Yes. It will have a max 25% drop next weekend imo (probably closer to 20%) and will then develop great late legs. 500M is a done deal, 550M is looking likely, 600M is still reachable depending on how good exactly those late legs will be.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

 

Fri est went up a smidge ($80K), Sat is $20.1, so should be just enough to kick over $50M for its 3rd Weekend

[Gavin Feng]

For those who think $50M is not good enough, here are the best 3rd wknd/ 1st wknd holds for $100M-plus openers

 

Jungle Book  -57.7% ($103.3M -> $43.7M)

Wonder Woman   -60.0% ($103.3M -> $41.3M)

Top Gun 2   -60.5% ($126.7M -> $50M)

Spider-Man   -60.8% ($114.8M -> $45M)

Star Wars: The Force Awakens   -63.6% ($248M -> $90.2M)

[Liiviig 1998]

13 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Top Gun Locked for 500 million?

550M locked .

 

 393m

     25

18th -35m (-30%)

        - 15

  24th- 22m(-37%)

          -  10  

July 4 wknd - 20m+

 

That comes to 520m+  after 4th july and my drops for 18th and 24th are conservative. TGM can drop way better than that .

 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

The weeeknd number you were all waiting for...

 

-

(-)

Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story

Fin and Fur …

$63,650

-52%

61

-8

$1,043

$277,826

2

 

 

 

It's not in the Derby so nobody cares anymore. 

[wildphantom]

Maverick is $400k off the pace of The Dark Knight, which did $42.7 million in its third weekend, and went on to do $533.3 million. 
 

So north of $550 million looks a pretty safe bet, whatever way you look at it. 

[SnokesLegs]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

For those who think $50M is not good enough, here are the best 3rd wknd/ 1st wknd holds for $100M-plus openers

 

Jungle Book  -57.7% ($103.3M -> $43.7M)

Wonder Woman   -60.0% ($103.3M -> $41.3M)

Top Gun 2   -60.5% ($126.7M -> $50M)

Spider-Man   -60.8% ($114.8M -> $45M)

Star Wars: The Force Awakens   -63.6% ($248M -> $90.2M)

When you consider that 6 months ago, some people were thinking TGM might do $50M-ish for OW (which would still have been on the high end for Tom Cruise opening weekends), to see it making that number on its 3rd weekend is nothing short of astounding. Anyone saying it’s not good enough is insane.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

For those who think $50M is not good enough, here are the best 3rd wknd/ 1st wknd holds for $100M-plus openers

 

Jungle Book  -57.7% ($103.3M -> $43.7M)

Wonder Woman   -60.0% ($103.3M -> $41.3M)

Top Gun 2   -60.5% ($126.7M -> $50M)

Spider-Man   -60.8% ($114.8M -> $45M)

Star Wars: The Force Awakens   -63.6% ($248M -> $90.2M)

It’s going to be even better if you look at just FSS, given differing preview weights. Black Panther was -62.5% from OW-FSS (also a holiday opening) to 3rd weekend, and TG2 is -53.4%