WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Borobudur]

I believe 142 is right in the range where most people foresee but I am sure the movie can go a lot higher if it can have some decent improvement over what we have now. It is a missed opportunity but there is some damage controlled. 

[Cmasterclay]

Both very good for a franchise that has left no pop culture imprint or memorable characters since 1993, and very bad for a "finale" movie whose last two entries made such massive money. IDK.

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

58% bought their tickets on the day and 60% went after 6pm. That could be good for Saturday and Sunday too. 

JWFK had roughly $29M worth same day sales.

 

Dominion had around $21-22M ish 

[grey ghost]

The Infinity Saga is a trilogy because movie 3 and 4 are one movie.

 

Let's re-do those trilogy rankings now. 

[MikeQ]

44 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I mean most of the Lightyear predix are around the 80-110 range. That’s a decent amount less than TS4’s opening, so I don’t think that qualifies as “like” the other Toy Story movies

 

I agree.

 

The average gross of Pixar films that are Friday openers (17 of them) is $81.7M, with a median gross of $68.1M. Pixar is an incredibly strong brand overall, and given Lightyear is connected to Pixar's strongest franchise/sub-brand, $80-110M predictions seem entirely reasonable to me.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited June 11, 2022 by MikeQ

[grey ghost]

But seriously a trilogy should conclude a story arc.

 

Therefore I'm not sure Transformers 1-3 or POTC 1-3 should count.

[THUNDER BIRD]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Both very good for a franchise that has left no pop culture imprint or memorable characters since 1993, and very bad for a "finale" movie whose last two entries made such massive money. IDK.

What is this pop culture imprint.

 

I keep hearing pop culture is why Avatar 2 will flop. 

[Grebacio]

4 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

What is this pop culture imprint.

 

I keep hearing pop culture is why Avatar 2 will flop. 

People think that if something doesn't get memed, it didn't left a pop culture print

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Underestimate Jurassic franchise at your own peril.

 

People do it again and again anyways to be proven wrong every opening weekend. I remember some even said FK will open below I2 second weekend and what not.

 

Either way this should be the reminder once again that bad reviews won't hurt Jurassic box office. People will check out at their own interest level.

 

Another great opening. Jurassic franchise is only franchise immune to bad reviews even at such massive scale.

As someone who bets on Box Office, please keep underestimating.   

[budice]

JWD Reviews: "your brain is getting effed by stupid."

 

OW: $140M

[John Marston]

So 600m still a possibility for TGM?

[JohnnyGossamer]

22 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

I agree.

 

The average gross of Pixar films that are Friday openers (17 of them) is $81.7M, with a median gross of $68.1M. Pixar is an incredibly strong brand overall, and given Lightyear is connected to Pixar's strongest franchise/sub-brand, $80-110M predictions seem entirely reasonable to me.

 

Peace,

Mike

This and, as mentioned, Juneteenth is now federal holiday that will be observed the Monday of Lightyear's OW DOM which will help boost its numbers somewhat as well.

[Joyous Legion]

If the average nominal gross is 82 then the average adjusted is probably like 110 or something and average rank gets you to like 130. Lightyear will be on weaker side.

[THUNDER BIRD]

18 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

People think that if something doesn't get memed, it didn't left a pop culture print

That's lol

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[grey ghost]

Looking at kid movie spinoffs, Puss n Boots made 33% of Shrek 2 (the peak of that franchise) and Lego Batman made 68% of Lego the Movie.

 

This range puts Lightyear somewhere between 143m and 295m.

 

Having said that 400m would absolutely shock me.

Edited June 11, 2022 by grey ghost

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Looking at kid movie spinoffs, Puss n Boots made 33% of Shrek 2 (the peak of that franchise) and Lego Batman made 68% of Lego the Movie.

 

This range puts Lightyear somewhere between 143m and 295m.

 

Having said that 400m would absolutely shock me.

This is interesting but I wouldn't compare either to Lightyear. Lightyear is far more established and more beloved than Lego Batman which had only appeared in the Lego Movie as the Lego Movie 2 came later. And, especially Puss and Boots which didn't appear until Shrek 2 and, really, is a stretch no matter what compared to character as known and beloved as Lightyear. 

[Borobudur]

Is TBG still heading to 100m? It should come close to $92m+ by the time when LY open to give a direct competition. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

43 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

But seriously a trilogy should conclude a story arc.

 

Therefore I'm not sure Transformers 1-3 or POTC 1-3 should count.

POTC 3 absolutely did conclude a story arc.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

$140m+ opening weekend an A- Cinemascore is more than Universal were expecting earlier this week, I can guarantee it. 
 

Lol at Firestarter being up 1,000% on last weekend and 2,500% up from Thursday. Those drive ins? 
 

8

(-)

Firestarter

Universal

$310,000

+2,468%

+943%

150

$2,067

$8,742,260

 

 

Men, with a $22 PTA in 991 locations is going to completely disappear next week. A dreadful result for weekend 3.

 

 

I noticed that about half of the drive-ins I looked at had it paired with Firestarter.  Definitely where this increase is coming from. 

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I noticed that about half of the drive-ins I looked at had it paired with Firestarter.  Definitely where this increase is coming from. 

It should've been paired with The Bad Guys instead.