BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, Germans don't go to the movies that often ... Austria is only slightly better, 1.5 or 1.6 the last time I looked. Personally I've watched about 20 movies this year on the big screen (Valerian was the only one I saw twice).

 

btw Austria's November numbers are in and it's been an ok month, a bit below average but no disaster thanks to strong performances from FJG3, BadMoms2 and Thor3 (and prople keep asking why studios produce mainly sequels these days ...)

[Fullbuster]

21 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Isn't it in Japan more like 1,3 or 1,4 too? (Population 127M, Admissions ca.165M).

 

France is so huge...

 

I only said the numbers I had in mind at this exact moment, that's not 100% accurate.

 

@Tower made a great list about this.

 

I only watch 4-6 movies a year, I'm totally in the French average ^^

Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year

In France it's close to 5

In Brazil it's 0.8

In Japan it's 1

France -  2016: 213 admissions/ 66.9m pop = 3.18 avg 

 

I think the largest avg in Europe is Ireland with 3.3 (not far behind that is N. Ireland at 3.1)

 

UK is 2.56 avg (168m admissions last year/ 64.5m pop)

Spain: 2.15 avg (100.3m admissions/ 46.5m pop)

Poland:  about 1.3 avg

Europe: 1.6

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/global/spain-box-office-2016-a-monster-calls-the-secret-life-of-pets-1201950985/

http://variety.com/2017/film/global/european-admissions-up-box-office-slips-1202463999/

 

 

For comparison - Some Global markets in 2009 (look at China)

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by TalismanRing

[Fullbuster]

12 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep, Germans don't go to the movies that often ... Austria is only slightly better, 1.5 or 1.6 the last time I looked. Personally I've watched about 20 movies this year on the big screen (Valerian was the only one I saw twice).

 

btw Austria's November numbers are in and it's been an ok month, a bit below average but no disaster thanks to strong performances from FJG3, BadMoms2 and Thor3 (and prople keep asking why studios produce mainly sequels these days ...)

 

So, now that we're in December, what can you say about the German/Austrian market in 2017? Will they grow over 2016?

 

@TalismanRing Wow, this number for France seems low, I'm sure it was closer to 4 or 5 several years ago.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year

In France it's close to 5

In Brazil it's 0.8

In Japan it's 1

5 seems too high. Correct me if I am wrong, but according jpbox-office.com, France sold 212.7 million admissions last year. And the population of the country is 66.9 million. That means 3.2 tickets per person and year. It is still high for European standards (2.15 is the ratio in Spain, for example).

 

Edit: I have already seen that @TalismanRing said the same before

Edited December 4, 2017 by peludo

[Fullbuster]

32 minutes ago, peludo said:

5 seems too high. Correct me if I am wrong, but according jpbox-office.com, France sold 212.7 million admissions last year. And the population of the country is 66.9 million. That means 3.2 tickets per person and year. It is still high for European standards (2.15 is the ratio in Spain, for example).

 

Edit: I have already seen that @TalismanRing said the same before

 

Yeah, let's say I got a sudden excess of national pride ahahaha  

 

But as I said the numbers seemed higher several years ago, the population increased but the number of tickets sold pretty much stagnated. I can see this number decreasing even further.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster

[Fullbuster]

40 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

France -  2016: 213 admissions/ 66.9m pop = 3.18 avg 

 

I think the largest avg in Europe is Ireland with 3.3 (not far behind that is N. Ireland at 3.1)

 

UK is 2.56 avg (168m admissions last year/ 64.5m pop)

Spain: 2.15 avg (100.3m admissions/ 46.5m pop)

Poland:  about 1.3 avg

Europe: 1.6

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/global/spain-box-office-2016-a-monster-calls-the-secret-life-of-pets-1201950985/

http://variety.com/2017/film/global/european-admissions-up-box-office-slips-1202463999/

 

 

For comparison - Some Global markets in 2009 (look at China)

 

 

Wow these numbers are pretty old, Brazil got 186 million admissions in 2016 ^^"

[Tower]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

 

I only said the numbers I had in mind at this exact moment, that's not 100% accurate.

 

@Tower made a great list about this.

 

I only watch 4-6 movies a year, I'm totally in the French average ^^

Here's the table I made of admissions (I added Australia New Zealand and Israel):

Market	Admissions(M)	Population(M)	Admissions per capita
Iceland	1.5	0.338	4.43
South Korea	217.026	50.801	4.27
Australia	91.3	23.402	3.90
USA+Canada	1315.2	359.572	3.66
New Zealand	16.016	4.693	3.41
Ireland	15.8	4.758	3.32
France	212.7	66.984	3.18
Mexico	327	122.273	2.67
United Kingdom	168.3	65.382	2.57
Estonia	3.3	1.318	2.50
Norway	13.12	5.252	2.50
Denmark	13	5.749	2.26
Luxembourg	1.3	0.576	2.26
Spain	102	46.812	2.18
Israel	17.544	8.628	2.03
Netherlands	34.2	16.979	2.01
Italy	112.5	60.590	1.86
Sweden	17.8	9.982	1.78
Austria	15.100	8.774	1.72
Belgium	19.4	11.353	1.71
Switzeland	13.4	8.401	1.60
Finland	8.7	5.503	1.58
Hungary	14.6	9.830	1.49
Czech Republic	15.6	10.572	1.48
Germany	121.1	82.176	1.47
Portugal	14.9	10.341	1.44
Japan	180.189	126.86	1.42
Poland	52.1	38.439	1.36
Russia	194.7	146.839	1.33
Lithuania	3.7	2.849	1.30
Latvia	2.5	1.953	1.28
Argentina	48.9	43.85	1.12
Slovenia	2.3	2.064	1.11
Slovakia	5.7	5.426	1.05
Croatia	4.3	4.191	1.03
China	1372	1,381.54	0.99
Greece	10	10.784	0.93
Brazil	185	206.441	0.90
Belarus	7.996	9.505	0.84
Cyprus	0.7	0.848	0.83
Bulgaria	5.5	7.154	0.77
Turkey	58.3	79.815	0.73
Romania	13	19.760	0.66
Montenegro	0.3	0.622	0.48
Serbia	3.249	7.076	0.46
Liechtenstein	0.016	0.038	0.42
Georgia	1.1	3.720	0.30
Macedonia	0.4	2.074	0.19

Edited December 4, 2017 by Tower

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Coco	198.388	613	324	198.388	1.680.041	-	1
2	Paddington 2	124.398	739	168	451.522	3.112.298	-47	2
3	Fack Ju Göhte 3	109.581	688	159	5.667.720	49.577.272	-48	6
4	Murder on the Orient Express	104.865	689	152	915.614	8.103.309	-37	4
5	Justice League	71.973	527	137	528.977	5.576.263	-43	3
6	Bad Moms 2	49.969	484	103	683.128	5.831.246	-52	4
7	Aus dem Nichts	44.674	245	182	152.022	1.305.027	-40	2
8	Happy Death Day	40.185	321	125	294.051	2.455.207	-48	3
9	Thor 3	38.996	314	124	1.398.266	15.375.970	-47	5
10	Flatliners	36.189	293	124	54.511	417.885	-	1
11	Girls Trip	33.150	318	104	49.278	397.410	-	1
12	Madame	18.020	104	173	20.153	163.728	-	1
13	Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten	15.816	546	29	212.463	1.380.086	-59	4
14	Augsburger Puppenkiste	10.788	411	26	10.788	63.350	-	1
15	Der Mann aus dem Eis	8.527	95	90	13.350	110.715	-	1
16	Kardesim Benim 2	7.844	51	154	24.389	227.013	-36	2
17	Jigsaw	7.702	208	37	482.390	4.298.218	-43	6
18	Cars 3	5.108	256	20	1.302.705	9.778.208	-66	10
19	The Big Sick	4.410	99	45	60.595	436.735	-60	3
20	Yol Arkadasim	3.968	26	153	38.391	345.224	-13	5

Talk about a disappointing weekend … not a single opener with good numbers, and horrible drops across the chart. So, let's move on:

Next weekend: Daddy's Home 2; A Ghost Story, The Mountain Between Us - plus some domestic and turkish releases and french comedy Epouse-moi mon pote … really nothing here to give me any hope for a surprise hit or even decent numbers. Obviously distributors were shying away from StarWars next weekend and I can't blame them.

[Tower]

If you are interested in the table I posted, I added some countries and made it a thread of its own:

 

[Aristis]

On 4.12.2017 at 5:09 PM, Fullbuster said:

 

So, now that we're in December, what can you say about the German/Austrian market in 2017? Will they grow over 2016?

 

Top10 numbers are now behind 2016. If SW won't save this year it could be worse than the catastrophy of 2016...

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Top10 numbers are now behind 2016. If SW won't save this year it could be worse than the catastrophy of 2016...

 

Oh my...I forgot 2016 wasn't great already...2017 being worse is definitely weird. That's a weird trend.

[George Parr]

If all of the five noticeable starts left succeed on some level, things could look a bit better than they do now.

 

2016:

4m+: ---

3m+: 6

2m+: 12 (1 missed out by 5k)

1m+: 31

 

2017 (in brackets movies that could get there, with ? if very much up in the air):

7m+: 0 -> 1? (Star Wars?)

6m+: 0 -> 1?/2? (Star Wars?, FJG3?)

5m+: 1 -> 2 (Star Wars)

4m+: 2 -> 3/4? (Star Wars, Dieses bescheuerte Herz?)

3m+: 6 -> 7/8? (same as above)

2m+: 8 -> 9/10? (same as above)

1m+: 24 -> 27-31? (existing ones, plus Orient Express, SW, Dieses bescheuerte Herz, Paddington 2?, Ferdinand?, Jumanji?, PP3?)

 

Of the movies already released, FjG3 could move into the 6m+ range. Murder on the Orient Express should top 1m. Maybe Paddington can use the holidays to get there as well?

New starts left that could succeed:

- Star Wars could top 6m or 7m, though Episodes II and III only had 5.8m and 5.6m, so who knows.

- Dieses bescheuerte Herz (with Elias M'Barek, possibly 2/3/4m or even more?)

- Ferdinand

- Jumanji

- Pitch Perfect 3

 

Who knows, maybe Ferdinand or Jumanji surprise and even top 2m admissions. Though with Star Wars and Dieses bescheuerte Herz starting it might be a bit too much to expect.

 

We definately will have a higher peak this year, but the modest successes haven't really been there so far. The last time we had less than 30 movies above 1m was in 2012, and that year saw the top 4 movies combine for 30m admissions, while this year might be lucky to break 20m.

[George Parr]

First trend is up, and it isn't looking particularly good. As Mark G. writes, last weekend had the worst top 10 of the 4th quarter in nine years, and this one looks to be even worse:

 

#1 Coco 160k (-19%)

#2 Paddington 2 140k (+13%)

#3 Murder on the Orient Express 75k (-29%)

#4 FjG3 70k (-36%)

#5 Daddy's Home 2 70k

[Omni]

Compared to Paddington's, Coco's hold doesn't look impressive at all. I was expecting it to remain about flat.

[efialtes76]

Second Trend:

Coco - 160K

Paddington 2- 125K

MOTOE - 80K

FJG3 - 75K

DH2 -72.5K

 

JL- 40K

 

[Giesi]

The boxoffice is really dreadful except for FJG3, insidekino predicts a 1,7mil opening weekend for TLJ, do you guys think that‘s too high? 

[IndustriousAngel]

Opening might get that high but I doubt if it'll reach the total of Ep7

[George Parr]

No idea whether it is too high in terms of presales or tracking, but it definately isn't too high when compared to what episodes regularly had as opening.

 

1.7m would actually be the weakest start of any of the modern episodes, which obviously excludes Rogue One. Episode I had 1.787m, II 1.847m, III 1.965m and VII 2.139m.

Though I'm not 100% sure if the prequels may have had previews that happened before midnight. I don't think evening previews were a thing at that time yet, as I very much remember the midnight showings, but I can't state it as fact.

 

Regarding presales, I really stopped trying to judge starts based on those. Episode VII had out of this world presales that even led insidekino to mention the possibility of a 3m opening weekend at some point, and we all saw how that turned out. The movie was extremely presales-heavy. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this one will be the same. And we do have some cases where presales looked almost weak but the opening turned out to be just fine, see FjG3, even if that was quite a bit lower than the last one. It's really hard to say where movies are heading these days.

 

I definately do agree that VIII won't come anywhere near VII in terms of the total. At this point, taking the expected OW into account, I'd say the 6m range seems to be the target, though with a better start maybe 7m could be possible as well. Then again, II and III came in below 6m, and both started with close to 2m. But I think VII had a better reception than I or II did, even if it wasn't quite as good as in the US.

 

Has anyone seen how much marketing there has been for this movie?

I haven't really paid attention to that, but it doesn't seem like there is a ton of it so far. I don't remember lots of marketing for Rogue One either, making me wonder if they just don't bother to the same extend anymore or if I just miss out on it.

Edited December 9, 2017 by George Parr

[Aristis]

Monday numbers:

 

Coco 155k (-22%) 395k (Should have done that in OW...)

Paddington2 107,5k (-13%) 590k

Orient Express 85k (-19%) 1,04M

FJG3 75k (-32%) 5,77M

Daddy2 60k/75k

 

JL 40k (-44%) 590k

Bad Moms 35k (-30%) 735k

Thor3 27,5k (-29%) 1,435M (passed Thor2)