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Eric Prime

Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

By Eric Prime, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Hype. They're not on the same level. L&T will likely surpass MOM in domestic total but I'd be surprised if it opened over $180M, much less $200M. 

Also summer. Even if they have the identical first week gross (the more apt comparison IMO), Thor would be more spread out to weekdays, lower OW. 

 

 

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, M37 said:

I agree that the trajectory, going from low $20s after first week to mid $20s now suggests Thor may continue to gain ground on comps and come up … but that’s not a certainty, and data in hand says $24-25M. We could even see sales slow as people break from routine for 4th of July holiday (and then ramp back up in the last few days)

Ehh… I don’t want to get too much of a reputation as the splitting hairs over semantics guy, but sometimes splitting hairs is important, so here goes 😛  

 

Sure, it is true that the data in hand does not say 28-30. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range.   
 

But I would say, it is equally not the case that the data in hand says 24-25. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range. Maybe the latter set of assumptions is better, but an actual affirmative case needs to be made for that — using the straight t-x comp implicitly embeds the rest of run sales ratio being equal to the cumulative sales ratio at t-x, which is a baseline heuristic that is probably pretty easy to outperform with some other pretty simply heuristics that incorporate e.g. recent pace, length of sales window, and raw level of sales.
 

I understand the appeal of the t-x comp from a computational convenience standpoint, and I’m not saying they should be retired or anything, but I think it’s a bit pernicious as far as implying a certain number as a sort of “what it’s looking like right now” which is not necessarily what it’s actually looking at right then in any meaningful sense.

Edited by Legion and Thunder
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted

I think people are now acting like Lightyear was always gonna bomb.

 

I think when project was announced, it did felt big. The first trailer was interesting but whatever followed later couldn't get the film buzz.

 

On top of that film turned out average which killed any chances it had left.

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think people are now acting like Lightyear was always gonna bomb.

 

I think when project was announced, it did felt big. The first trailer was interesting but whatever followed later couldn't get the film buzz.

 

On top of that film turned out average which killed any chances it had left.

Yeah the trailer with Starman was really good but nothing else drummed up interest.

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

August looks so horrendous that Bullet Train will play all month and things like Beast will overperform, leaving room for Top gun to hang around

Lionsgate should have moved John Wick 4 to August

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