Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Juan Caballo]

Top Gun has crossed the billion dollar mark. 

[SnokesLegs]

14 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Same here. TG2 could have gone the Independence Day 2 (Will Smith being absent + atricious reviews),  The Matrix Resurrections (HBO Max Same-day, releasing idiotically right after NWH), Blade Runner 2049 (stricter rating and almost 3-hour runtime) route in terms of box office. Instead, its fantastic reviews, marketing, WOM helped its epic run.

I’m still blown away by the stupidity of everything surrounding that Matrix Resurrections release date. I know it was divisive to say the least, but with a better release date (say, August of this year or even earlier in December of last year) it’d have done infinitely better on opening weekend. NWH just wrecked it and ensured that it barely got PLF’s. In the UK it had two 5pm IMAX showings on the Wednesday and Thursday near me and then it was done, and it was pushed into the smaller regular auditoriums even on release day.

[XXR & Friends]

47 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Maybe a bit far in the other direction.   
 

Fir now thinking 27-31, 5.5-6

 

Maybe, but my thinking is a summer Thursday should be able to gain a larger % of the weekend than a non-summer Thursday (of comparatively equal films) since kids are out of school. Parents can take them to later showings than during the school year. 

[M37]

18 minutes ago, Hilpkioy said:

Minions looks promising based on its debut in Australia at 3.73m compared to 4.55m for the original Minions and 4.5m for Despicable Me 3. Anglosphere countries tend to perform similarly for these types of movies so it could be around 70-80% of what the first movie opened to domestically as well.

In the US though, there is a big gap between the OWs for original Minions ($115.7M) and DM3 ($72.4M) - so 70-80% of which figure?

 

I would tend to think that Minions is itself is the better comp (largely for demographic reasons), but 70% of DM3 is a Lightyear OW

[efialtes76]

12 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

The actual numbers for TGM might go up. 👩🏻‍💼👩🏻‍🦰

Less than a 15% drop on Sunday?

I doubt it.

 

[XXR & Friends]

17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

TGM No.1 !!!

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

 

I'm disappointed with literally every number on this list 

[filmlover]

Elvis' opening is pretty good. The rest of the summer is largely absent of competition for older audiences (I guess with the exception of Where the Crawdads Sing?) so it might be on track for a nice run with $100M+ total being a strong possibility.

[Hilpkioy]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

In the US though, there is a big gap between the OWs for original Minions ($115.7M) and DM3 ($72.4M) - so 70-80% of which figure?

 

I would tend to think that Minions is itself is the better comp (largely for demographic reasons), but 70% of DM3 is a Lightyear OW

I would say compared to the original Minions as it's geared more towards kids but it won't flop like Lightyear judging by the fact that it's opening is already higher than Lightyear's entire week run in Australia.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Hilpkioy

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, filmlover said:

Elvis' opening is pretty good. The rest of the summer is largely absent of competition for older audiences (I guess with the exception of Where the Crawdads Sing?) so it might be on track for a nice run with $100M+ total being a strong possibility.

Even with 45-day unnecessary (should be extended to like 90 days) window from HBO, $100m is in the cards thanks to summer weekdays. As for Crawdads, I haven't seen much marketing for it and the starpower isn't there like The Fault in Our Stars and The Girl on the Train. It's this year's Paper Towns especially if it gets an R-rating.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Elvis shall win the weekend quite easily. Though gotta check numbers to confirm. Give me 5

  Hide contents

or 30

 

Elvis at -23% estimated Sun has more room to improve than TGM at -15%. I'd bet on Elvis being #1 when the dust settles with actuals tomorrow

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Elvis at -23% estimated Sun has more room to improve than TGM at -15%. I'd bet on Elvis being #1 when the dust settles with actuals tomorrow

and TGM will still be a strong #2 if the King tomorrow when actuals arrive takes the top spot.

Edited June 26, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

It will be comfortably #3 that weekend and Thor doesn't look like a true monster, screens shouldn't be too tight.

is that based on tracking? But lets say it has monster legs, they could coexist and get to their milestones, no?

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Hilpkioy said:

I would say compared to the original Minions as it's geared more towards kids but it won't flop like Lightyear judging by the fact that it's opening is already higher than Lightyear's entire week run in Australia.

It’s more about the draw with Hispanic families in the US, which Australia lacks 

 

See also Sonic 2, where the US/Aus OW ratio was much higher, closer to Minions than DM3 

[WrathOfHan]

Elvis:

 

Jun 24: 30.5M (15.6M weekdays, 46.1M Total)

Jul 1: 25.1M (13.5M weekdays, 84.7M Total)

Jul 8: 14.5M (9M weekdays, 108.2M Total)

Jul 15: 10.9M (5.4M weekdays, 124.5M Total)

Jul 22: 6.7M (3.6M weekdays, 134.8M Total)

Jul 29: 5.3M (2M weekdays, 142.1M Total)

Aug 5: 3.5M (1.2M weekdays, 146.8M Total)

Aug 12: 3.1M (900k weekdays, 150.8M Total)

Aug 19: 2M (500k weekdays, 153.3M Total)

Final Total: 158M (5.18x)

 

Hard to say how much HBO Max will impact it in August since nothing is out on August 12 and older skewing films usually haven't been impacted by streaming. Nope's weekend will probably be the biggest hit because smaller theaters will start dumping it, but I expect it to have a healthy theater count going into August.

[titanic2187]

A very definition of Everything everywhere all DROP at once.  

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Per Theater	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
1	(3)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$30,500,176	-32%	3,948	-87	$7,725	$521,723,000	5
2	N	Elvis	Warner Bros.	$30,500,000		3,906		$7,808	$30,500,000	1
3	(1)	Jurassic World: Dominion	Universal	$26,440,000	-55%	4,233	-464	$6,246	$302,775,820	3
4	N	The Black Phone	Universal	$23,370,000		3,150		$7,419	$23,370,000	1
5	(2)	Lightyear	Walt Disney	$17,669,000	-65%	4,255	n/c	$4,153	$88,770,257	2
6	(4)	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	Walt Disney	$1,725,000	-61%	1,855	-610	$930	$409,192,074	8
7	N	Jugjugg Jeeyo	Self Distrib…	$604,000		318		$1,899	$604,000	1
8	(7)	Everything Everywhere All At Once	A24	$533,346	-43%	524	-155	$1,018	$66,088,446	14
9	(5)	The Bob’s Burgers Movie	20th Century…	$513,000	-56%	590	-760	$869	$31,042,995	5
10	(6)	The Bad Guys	Universal	$440,000	-56%	1,033	-444	$426	$95,488,025	10
11	(8)	Downton Abbey: A New Era	Focus Features	$370,000	-55%	745	-434	$497	$43,284,620	6
12	N	Marcel the Shell with Shoes On	A24	$169,606		6		$28,268	$169,606	1
-	(9)	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	Paramount Pi…	$90,092	-62%	234	-205	$385	$190,724,000	12

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Elvis:

 

Jun 24: 30.5M (15.6M weekdays, 46.1M Total)

Jul 1: 25.1M (13.5M weekdays, 84.7M Total)

Jul 8: 14.5M (9M weekdays, 108.2M Total)

Jul 15: 10.9M (5.4M weekdays, 124.5M Total)

Jul 22: 6.7M (3.6M weekdays, 134.8M Total)

Jul 29: 5.3M (2M weekdays, 142.1M Total)

Aug 5: 3.5M (1.2M weekdays, 146.8M Total)

Aug 12: 3.1M (900k weekdays, 150.8M Total)

Aug 19: 2M (500k weekdays, 153.3M Total)

Final Total: 158M (5.18x)

 

Hard to say how much HBO Max will impact it in August since nothing is out on August 12 and older skewing films usually haven't been impacted by streaming. Nope's weekend will probably be the biggest hit because smaller theaters will start dumping it, but I expect it to have a healthy theater count going into August.

Now the question is which film will have the better legs, TGM or Elvis?

[Issac Newton]

No OS Thread. So posting it here ..

 

 

THE BLACK PHONE
$12.47M Overseas Opening Total / 45 Markets
$35.84M Global Total
TOP MARKETS:
Mexico: $3.42M
UK & Ireland: $1.69M
France: $812K#BlackPhone #TheBlackPhone #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) June 26, 2022

[vale9001]

Jurassic world will fail the 1B even with 150M  fron China.

 

It's good people are showing to Hollywood they are not eating everything and even Star Wars and Jurassic Park can halve the earning in the same trilogy if the quality is not there. 

They arleady show they are not eating every spin off of every disney live action. Good. We need originality, passion, cae of the product and real events.

Edited June 26, 2022 by vale9001

[vale9001]

Elvis doesn't have that much of competion expect for Where the crawdads sing that should be strong with (white) women from the South too. 

[superheavysun]

12 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

Top gun two is not making any where near 700m. Thor 4 is coming out and will cut off it legs.