Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[M37]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

is that based on tracking? But lets say it has monster legs, they could coexist and get to their milestones, no?

Every 8-10plex will be playing at least the top 5-8 movies into August. After Thor, the releases are mostly 1 screen allocations at those size locations, other than Nope (depending on market) and maybe bullet train. So TGM going to stay above 2500/3000 locations for a while 

[baumer]

Hey guys. Please keep in mind that when I call people loonies I mean no offense by it.

 

As some of you may or may not know I'm one of the original members of The box office mojo forums. We started calling people Lord of the rings loonies back in the day and the term Loonie just stuck. I've been called a loonie a million times and I don't take offense to it and I don't mean any offense by it. So anyone who was offended by it please accept my apology it's just a term of endearment basically.

 

We are all here at these forums because we love movies and the box office. I'm not here to get under anyone's skin.

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Even with 45-day unnecessary (should be extended to like 90 days) window from HBO, $100m is in the cards thanks to summer weekdays. As for Crawdads, I haven't seen much marketing for it and the starpower isn't there like The Fault in Our Stars and The Girl on the Train. It's this year's Paper Towns especially if it gets an R-rating.

 

I read the book and why it should even get a PG-13?. 😅

[Taruseth]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Horrific for Lightyear

Decent worldwide total for The Black Phone. Shame about that UK number, which is a 6 day opening. 

Lol, that's a hefty drop: It's the 265 movie to open with at least 50m and that would be the 28th worst drop and the second worst drop for animation (only behind the Simpsons movie - third worst is Cars 2 with 60.3% - Cars 3 only dropped 55.2%.

Spoiler

Biggest drops for 50+m openers:

#1 Fifty Shades of Grey: -73.9% (85.2m->22.3m)

#2 HP 7-2: -72% (169.2m->42.4m)

#3 Valentine's Day: -70.4% (56.3m->16.7m)

#4 Twilight: New Moon: -70% (142.8m->42.9m)

#5 Twilight: Breaking Dawn I: 69.8% (138.1m->41.7m)

#6 Hulk: -69.7 % (62.1m->18.8m)

#7 BvS: -69.1& (166m->51.3m)

#8 Twilight: Breaking Dawn II: -69.1% (141.1m->43.6m)

#9 X-Men: Wolverine: -69.0% (85.1m->26.4m)

#10 Black Widow: -67.8% (80.4m->25.8m)

#11 Watchmen: -67.7% (55.2m->17.8m)

#12 The Village: -67.5% (50.7m->16.5m)

#13 SM: NWH: -67.5% (260.1m->85.5m)

#14 SW VIII: TLJ: -67.5% (220.0m->71.6m)

#15 Suicide Squad: -67.4% (133.7m->43.5m)

#16 F9: -67.2% (70.0m->23.0m)

#17 DS:MOM: -67 % (187.4m->61.8m)

#18 X-Men: The Last Stand: -66.9 % (102.8m->34.0m)

#19 Godzilla: -66.8% (93.2m->30.9m)

#20 The Nun: -66.1% (53.8m->18.2m)

#21 Green Lantern: -66.1% (53.2m-18.0m)

#22 The Simpsons Movie: -66.1% (74.0m->25.1m)

#23 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: -65.5% (58.1m->20.0m)

#24 Paranormal Activity 3: -65.5% (52.6m->18.1m)

#25 Deadpool 2: -65.4% (125.5m->43.5m)

#26 X-Men: Apocalypse: -65.3% (65.8m->22.8m)

#27 Solo: A Star Wars Story: -65.2% (84.4m->29.4m)

#28: Lightyear: -65.0% (50.6m-17.7m)

#29 PotC 5: Dead Man Tell no Tales: -64.9% (63.0m->22.1m)

#30 Venom 2: Let there be Carnage: -64.7% (90.0m->31.8m)

#31 Man of Steel: -64.6% (116.6m->41.3m)

#31 X-Men: Days of Future Past: -64.2m (90.8m->32.6m)

#32 F&F 6: -63.9% (97.4m->35.2m)

#33 Hangover II: -63.5% (85.9m->31.4m)

#34 Transformers: Age of Extinction: -63.0% (100.0m->37.1m)

#35 War of the Planet of the Apes: -62.9% (56.3m->20.9m)

#36 Sex and the City: -62.8% (57.0m->21.2m)

#37 HP3: -62.7% (93.7m->34.9m)

#38 Fast Five: -62.4% (86.2m->32.4m)

#39 Eternals: -62.3% (71.3m->26.9m)

#40 8 Mile: -62.2% (51.2m->19.3m)

#41 SM: Homecoming: -62.2% (117.0m->44.2m)

#42 Twilight: -62.2% (69.6m->26.3m)

#43 Jason Bourne:-62.2% (59.2m->22.4m)

#44 HP 6: -62.1% (77.8m->29.5m) (Wednesday start)

#45 Ant-Man and the Wasp: -61.6% (75.8m->29.1m)

#46 The Hunger Games: -61.6% (152.5m-58.6m)

#47 Fast & Furious (4):-61.6% (71.0m->27.2m)

#48 Spider-Man 3: -61.5% (151.1m->58.2m)

#49 PotC: At World's End (3): -61.5% (114.7m-44.2m)

#50 The Dark Knigth Rises: -61.4% (160.9m->62.1m)

#51 The Amazing Spider-Man 2: -61.2% (91.6m-35.5m)

#52 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2): -61.2% (109.0m-42.3m) (Wednesday start)

#53 The Fate of the Furious (8): -61.6% (98.8m-38.4m)

#54 HP 7-1m: -60.7% (125.0m->49.1m)

#55 Captain America: The First Avenger: -60.7% (65.1m-25.6m)

#56 Wanted: -60.6% (50.9m-20.1m)

#57 James Bond: Quantum of Solace: -60.4% (67.5m->26.7m)

#58 Cars 2: -60.3% (66.1m->26.3m)

#59 Incredible Hulk: -60.1% (55.4m->22.1m)

#60 The Lion King: -60.0% (191.8m-> 76.6m)

 

 

 

 

 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, superheavysun said:

Top gun two is not making any where near 700m. Thor 4 is coming out and will cut off it legs.

Just like JWD did? At that was with the loss of PLF screens, which was a one time hit to grossing potential, and TGM rebounded to -21% on Fri and Sat the following weekend (not even including the Father's Day bump)

 

There is a path to $700M

[Chaz]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

Hey guys. Please keep in mind that when I call people loonies I mean no offense by it.

 

As some of you may or may not know I'm one of the original members of The box office mojo forums. We started calling people Lord of the rings loonies back in the day and the term Loonie just stuck. I've been called a loonie a million times and I don't take offense to it and I don't mean any offense by it. So anyone who was offended by it please accept my apology it's just a term of endearment basically.

 

We are all here at these forums because we love movies and the box office. I'm not here to get under anyone's skin.

Shut up, loonie.

[BruiseCruise]

Whatever premium screens LY and JWD have remaining should be given to TGM ASAP

[Cheddar Please]

My current projections for TGM:

 

5/29	126,707,459	126,707,459
6/02	78,896,552	205,604,011
6/05	90,037,011	295,641,022	-28.94%
6/09	47,702,914	343,343,936	-39.54%
6/12	51,855,344	395,199,280	-42.41%
6/16	26,968,265	422,167,545	-43.47%
6/19	44,655,075	466,822,620	-13.89%
6/23	24,400,204	491,222,824	-9.52%
6/26	30,500,000	521,722,824	-31.70%
7/01	16,277,176	538,000,000	-33.29%
7/03	27,000,000	565,000,000	-11.48%
7/07	15,000,000	580,000,000	-7.85%
7/10	15,000,000	595,000,000	-44.44%
7/14	8,000,000	603,000,000	-46.67%
7/17	11,000,000	614,000,000	-26.67%
7/21	6,000,000	620,000,000	-25.00%
7/24	8,000,000	628,000,000	-27.27%
7/28	4,500,000	632,500,000	-25.00%
7/31	6,000,000	638,500,000	-25.00%
8/04	3,500,000	642,000,000	-22.22%
	~680,000,000

 

Note, I have these as base estimates. Assuming the movie can even slightly overperform these figures, $700m should be achievable

[vale9001]

thor 4 850m total WW.

 6 movies with Thor are enough. It's not the spider man. After 6 movies people need a reboot, a new actor, a new setting..something new or it's not an event. Even Batman, Superman or Batman get that any 3 or less movies.

 

Here in Italy the first day is almost full in pre sales,  for the weekend the sales are really low. I didn't see something like that here for Marvel since Ant Man 2 probably. 

[GipJo]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Elvis' opening is pretty good. The rest of the summer is largely absent of competition for older audiences (I guess with the exception of Where the Crawdads Sing?) so it might be on track for a nice run with $100M+ total being a strong possibility.

Crawdads looks like a young to mid female audience movie, why do you think it's a older audience movie?

[Brainbug]

Woudnt it be funny if we would get a Black Panther-situation where the movie stands at 699,9M for like 2 months before crossing 700M?

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Maybe, but my thinking is a summer Thursday should be able to gain a larger % of the weekend than a non-summer Thursday (of comparatively equal films) since kids are out of school. Parents can take them to later showings than during the school year. 

I don't think DS2 and Thor are equal. As you noted in your previous post DS2 has more fan hype, hence more pressure to see it immediately, and also had mixed WoM which hurts the weekend multi a bit. 

[Fanboy]

Is a $1 billion June still possible after this weekend? Doesn't look like July is going to do it at this point unless Nope breaks out big time.  Would be the first time since 2002 we haven't had a June or July break $1 Billion not counting the last two years obviously. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Fanboy

[superheavysun]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just like JWD did? At that was with the loss of PLF screens, which was a one time hit to grossing potential, and TGM rebounded to -21% on Fri and Sat the following weekend (not even including the Father's Day bump)

 

There is a path to $700M

It's path to 700m is zero. Thor 4 will cut off it legs. 

[BruiseCruise]

I'm gonna guess around 28m previews with 6xIM for 168m OW for Thor,

[CoolioD1]

in regards to lightyear; i think last year i was rooting for everything to do well, but i think stuff has recovered enough where i'm finally at the point where i can get some pleasure at a lame brand extension eating shit at the box office.

[filmlover]

Just now, GipJo said:

Crawdads looks like a young to mid female audience movie, why do you think it's a older audience movie?

The book was extremely popular sitting on the NYT best sellers list for a few years, and adaptations of mystery/thriller novels like that usually appeal most to older white women (Gone Girl's opening weekend audience was 60% female/75% over 25/67% Caucasian while The Girl on the Train's was 68% female/55% over 35/67% Caucasian). I would expect a similar audience breakdown here despite the marketing's attempts at appealing to a younger demographic via the heavy emphasis on the Taylor Swift song.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

thor 4 850m total WW.

 6 movies with Thor are enough. It's not the spider man. After 6 movies people need a reboot, a new actor, a new setting..something new or it's not an event. Even Batman, Superman or Batman get that any 3 or less movies.

 

Here in Italy the first day is almost full in pre sales,  for the weekend the sales are really low. I didn't see something like that here for Marvel since Ant Man 2 probably. 

I don't think 850M will show that need to change tbh. 

 

850M in current environment without China and many other countries who will ignore the movie because of LGBT+ representation is pretty big. Ragnarok would make just a bit over 700M with the same problems.

 

And this can even past 850M kinda easily if everything goes right. If it did open with +170M, it should end with +450M in US alone.

[BruiseCruise]

We might get a change with Thor regardless since Hemsworth interviews atleast hint at marvel either not offering him a new deal yet or one that he doesn't like and honestly would make sense, he's gotten a longer run than RDJ or Evans

[vale9001]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don't think 850M will show that need to change tbh. 

 

850M in current environment without China and many other countries who will ignore the movie because of LGBT+ representation is pretty big. Ragnarok would make just a bit over 700M with the same problems.

 

And this can even past 850M kinda easily if everything goes right. If it did open with +170M, it should end with +450M in US alone.

 

yeah i'm probably too positive, it's coming for a 750 total