NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[baumer]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nope is going to make roughly $65M+ In it’s first full week. Giving it same legs as Us, which was both more divisive and faced far more competition, would get to $120M. Could see it coming up just short, like say $117 (which is why I said probably) 

 

Scream, another frontloaded horror flick where the first week was inflated by a holiday Monday, still made 2.09x it’s opening week, due in part to lack of competition, the same benefit Nope will have in coming months. Conjuring 3 last summer was 2.01x, Old 2.02x. 
 

So again, ~$120 is the floor here, and I’d expect $130+

 

You're using its first full week and taking the multiplier from there? That's not how I look at it. Let's say it does 45 million it's opening weekend. In order for it to hit 120 million that's a 2.66 multiplier. That is a pretty big multiplier for a horror movie. That is not going to be easy. The weekdays will obviously be stronger than a horror film that opens in the fall but the weekends could be way less. If it opens to 45, it needs a 2.22x to get to 100. Let's see what happens.

Edited July 24, 2022 by baumer

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Elvis never started. It made like 2m dollars. So it's not even about legs, simply there isn't an audience. 

It opened to a third of BoRap and will gross about 1/20th, I'd say it's atleast partly about legs

Edited July 24, 2022 by JustLurking

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, baumer said:

 

You're using its first full week and taking the multiplier from there? That's not how I look at it. Let's say it does 45 million it's opening weekend. In order for it to hit 120 million that's a 2.66 multiplier. That is a pretty big multiplier for a horror movie. 12 is not going to be easy. The weekdays will obviously be stronger than a horror film that opens in the fall but the weekends could be way less. If it opens to 45, it needs a 2.22x to get to 100. Let's see what happens.

Week is better than weekend in that you account for seasonal differences in weekday strength, but I don’t personally like to roll in the

previews. Nope previews will be almost 15% of OW which mechanically drags the denominator down relative to a lot of these comps.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You're using its first full week and taking the multiplier from there? That's not how I look at it. Let's say it does 45 million it's opening weekend. In order for it to hit 120 million that's a 2.66 multiplier. That is a pretty big multiplier for a horror movie. 12 is not going to be easy. The weekdays will obviously be stronger than a horror film that opens in the fall but the weekends could be way less. If it opens to 45, it needs a 2.22x to get to 100. Let's see what happens.

Using the first full week helps to balance out the effect of seasons & holidays, where a summer opening is going be more spread out, rack up far more on weekdays than a comprable opening during school time 

 

Us made 75% of first week gross through Sunday, Nope shoukd land in 65-67% range, barring a semi-collapse during the week. Opening week really should be the default standard when taking about multipliers 

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Week is better than weekend in that you account for seasonal differences in weekday strength, but I don’t personally like to roll in the

previews. Nope previews will be almost 15% of OW which mechanically drags the denominator down relative to a lot of these comps.

 

There is no real difference in seasonal releases. In the Autumn or the winter the weekend numbers are way higher. You start getting 150% increases on Friday whereas right now you get 50%. Even on Saturdays family films can get 55% increases. It all balances out in the end

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Week is better than weekend in that you account for seasonal differences in weekday strength, but I don’t personally like to roll in the

previews. Nope previews will be almost 15% of OW which mechanically drags the denominator down relative to a lot of these comps.

No, it should be under 10% of week (15% of weekend), Us was 7.8%, Scream was 9%. Old at 6% is the only one I mentioned where it might be materially different enough that it needs to be adjusted for 

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, it should be under 10% of week (15% of weekend), Us was 7.8%, Scream was 9%. Old at 6% is the only one I mentioned where it might be materially different enough that it needs to be adjusted for 

15% of weekend is what I said. Thinking could be near 11% for week — scream is pretty close, us in a bit of grey zone.   
 

But it’s more an aesthetic/theoretical preference. Certainly when the difference in input is small you aren’t gonna get much difference in output either way, but it feels tidier to me to use the same method as you’d prefer when the impact is big.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

There is no real difference in seasonal releases. In the Autumn or the winter the weekend numbers are way higher. You start getting 150% increases on Friday whereas right now you get 50%. Even on Saturdays family films can get 55% increases. It all balances out in the end

Don’t think you understand what we’re saying. The fact that summer has weaker weekends that balance the stronger weekdays is exactly why there’s an issue dividing by OW — denominator deflated, multi inflated.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

15% of weekend is what I said. Thinking could be near 11% for week — scream is pretty close, us in a bit of grey zone.   
 

But it’s more an aesthetic/theoretical preference. Certainly when the difference in input is small you aren’t gonna get much difference in output either way, but it feels tidier to me to use the same method as you’d prefer when the impact is big.

My issues is that removing Thursday also removes some number of people who would have been included in OW/week total had the opening been in a different season … which then undermines the intent of using the weekly gross to balance seasons. Thor wouldn’t have made $29M on Thursday if it opened in May or November 

 

Neither method is right or wrong, particularly as “previews” have grown to almost a full day plus EA shows rolled in some cases. Could get really fancy and try to get exactly a week, estimate the share of first full Thursday that would have been pre-preview time, or even removing it altogether (but that’s more work than I care to do)

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

My issues is that removing Thursday also removes some number of people who would have been included in OW/week total had the opening been in a different season … which then undermines the intent of using the weekly gross to balance seasons. Thor wouldn’t have made $29M on Thursday if it opened in May or November 

 

Neither method is right or wrong, particularly as “previews” have grown to almost a full day plus EA shows rolled in some cases. Could get really fancy and try to get exactly a week, estimate the share of first full Thursday that would have been pre-preview time, or even removing it altogether (but that’s more work than I care to do)

Cutting off previews definitely isn’t perfect, but at its core I think a good heuristic is to use a 7day window as the denominator so you have one of each type of weekday (this also induces a nice straightforward correspondence between multi and avg weekly drop). That’s also why, later in the run, I might reference a forward multi from d4-d10, or d8-d14, etc.   

 

With modern preview conventions, OWeek is in effect an 8day window, and true OWeek is a 7day window (real d2-d8). If I was forced to pick a method with included previews I would probably go for the reported D6 cume, which is a real 7day and includes one Th+one fri-wed instead of 2 Th+one fri-wed.

 

and yeah, then the other matter is just computational convenience in terms of looking up the figures and doing mental math on them (or spreadsheet if feeling serious).

Edited July 24, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Johnny Tran]

What's the budget for NOPE? 

[filmnerdjamie]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

What's the budget for NOPE? 

 

$68M is the officially listed budget, I believe.

 

But those figures are quite often bullshit.

[M37]

Back to actual Numbers, first couple of reports point to a solid Saturday, so estimates should come up 

 

TGM - $10.0

Paws - $3.875

[CaptNathanBrittles]

44 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

$68M is the officially listed budget, I believe.

 

But those figures are quite often bullshit.

 

Including marketing it's probably double that. Universal spent $80m on marketing SPLIT, which seems like a reasonable comp.

[The Dark Alfred]

Decent 9th weekend for TGM, 4th biggest of all time.

[BlaineGabbert]

Still no saturday numbers for Nope?

[baumer]

10 mill 9th weekend for TGM is insane. 

[Jiffy]

11 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Decent 9th weekend for TGM, 4th biggest of all time.

It would be 3rd biggest, no?

[The Dark Alfred]

A nice Saturday increase for TGM en route to 700m.

 

Biggest domestic 9th Saturday:

 

1	Feb 14, 1998	Titanic	$13,048,711	3,002	$4,347	$362,173,488
2	Feb 13, 2010	Avatar	$9,200,438	2,685	$3,427	$651,346,762
3	Jan 18, 2014	Frozen	$5,282,199	2,979	$1,773	$328,428,836
4	Jul 23, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$4,140,000	3,160	$1,310	$632,470,887

 

[harrisonisdead]

2 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

It would be 3rd biggest, no?

Titanic, Avatar, and Forrest Gump are above it