NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Ryan Reynolds]

Nope has same RT audience score as Morbius

[Noctis]

4 hours ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

 

 

No offense to you Noctis, but I would take out a loan against my house that M37 knows more about how the box office works than you do 

 

Maybe so, but I wouldn't take a loan against my house on a prediction that the floor for Nope is $120m.

 

 

[krla]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

TGM just locked up 700m OS. Domestic better follow suit and produce super soft drops in August. It's looking good for 700m domestic and 1.42 billon WW. Re-release should happen as well. There are so many water blockbusters coming (BP2, Avatar, Titanic, Aquaman)  we will be needing the air combats back 😁

It should hit $650m around August 1st. If it averages around $1m a day in August, it'll be at $680 going into Labor Day weekend. Following the same holds as the past 7 days, it hits $650m on August 1st, $660m on August 7, $670m on August 15th, $680 on August 26th, $685m September 1st. 

 

Week before labor day it could do $5.4m. Labor Day week is usually, at minimum, 2x the prior week. So that'd be $11m, bringing it up to $696m on September 8th. FFH did +170% on LD week, which would give TGM a potential $14.58m, bringing it to ~$699.58m on September 8th.

 

Of course something like Bullet Train could take Tom out at the ankles. 

[Lestranger]

So Thor Ragnarok did just over a billion in 2022 dollars. Love and Thunder gonna cap out around 750 million. Even factoring inflation on the production budget, L&T cost a good 30 million more than Ragnarok. I also think the marketing budget was bloated as well since they were confident it would be a big hit easily passing Ragnarok. Not a lot of good news for Disney, but they aint sweating it I bet. New Panther trailer looks dope.

[The Dark Alfred]

15 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

So Thor Ragnarok did just over a billion in 2022 dollars. Love and Thunder gonna cap out around 750 million. Even factoring inflation on the production budget, L&T cost a good 30 million more than Ragnarok. I also think the marketing budget was bloated as well since they were confident it would be a big hit easily passing Ragnarok. Not a lot of good news for Disney, but they aint sweating it I bet. New Panther trailer looks dope.

 

I agree that L&T's WW tally is underwhelming. Domestically it is doing ok. However those points you make are not telling the whole story. Reality is that Ragnarok did 718m WW without China and Russia. People just have to accept that fact that the Thor franchise has a ceiling.

[WrathOfHan]

52 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

So Thor Ragnarok did just over a billion in 2022 dollars. Love and Thunder gonna cap out around 750 million. Even factoring inflation on the production budget, L&T cost a good 30 million more than Ragnarok. I also think the marketing budget was bloated as well since they were confident it would be a big hit easily passing Ragnarok. Not a lot of good news for Disney, but they aint sweating it I bet. New Panther trailer looks dope.

It's also going to fall below TDW worldwide adjusted for inflation. THAT'S embarrassing.

[lab276]

Slightly disappointing overall weekend numbers, down 6% when it should've been an up weekend. On the other hand, July is now a cert to break a billion. The first billion dollar month since December 2019! August won't be so great obviously, but August has been sucky for a long time with a few exceptions. We're so close to being back to normal.

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Nope has same RT audience score as Morbius

Sounds like it’s as awful as “US”

[Johnny Tran]

How long are we going to say "without China" though? There's tons of movies from the past that never got a China release, you can't really expect big box office from China at this point until things change 

[vale9001]

Thor is a fourth chapter. I don't think is "embarassing" making less than the third movie. It's not like they dropped with the first sequel after a really beloved  first movie, is the fouth so making less it's not out of the world. 

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

How long are we going to say "without China" though? There's tons of movies from the past that never got a China release, you can't really expect big box office from China at this point until things change 

I feel like we are just going to get enough films into China each year for the term "without China" to stay relevant for quite sometime to come. JWD certainly wouldn't be looking at almost 1B without those $150M from China.

[Rebeccas]

28 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Thor is a fourth chapter. I don't think is "embarassing" making less than the third movie. It's not like they dropped with the first sequel after a really beloved  first movie, is the fouth so making less it's not out of the world. 

It's not embarrassing but it definitely left a lot of cash on the table given how popular Ragnarok and Thor in IW/Endgame were. It didn't need to be as good as Ragnarok, it just needed to be like Ant-Man or GOTG2 level and it would've outgrossed Ragnarok... you really had the perfect situation for a hugely successful entry, it just didn't materialize for whatever reason. 

 

Honestly if Feige wanted to put more energy/focus into Black Panther 2 (which genuinely looks amazing and does not seem to ahve the wonky CGI plaguing every other project?) and neglected the other Phase 4 stuff to do that, I'm totally okay with that lol. BP2 is way more important than Thor 4. 

[John2015]

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris grossed $1.35 million in its second week with a mix of arthouse and commercial theaters among top 10 locations and a nice hold from its opening weekend (-31%). ...

 

Cinemas like the Plaza Frontenac in St. Louis, Avalon Twin in Washington, D.C., and Camelview in Phoenix joined commercial venues in the top 10. Ticket sales in Week 2 expanded outside the coasts. Demos were similar, with a hefty 44% over 55, and 71% female.

 

“The biggest takeaway is that we are starting to get older audiences back into theaters,” Lisa Bunnell, distribution president of Focus Features, said Sunday. And, “The top 10 this weekend was a good mix of commercial and specialty theaters that we don’t see consistently anymore.”

 

Bunnell called Mrs. Harris an upbeat movie with good word of mouth. “People are starting to talk about it, and going back to the movies, which is what we need in order to see the specialized market come back,” she said. Overall, “We are starting to see more normalized moviegoing habits.”

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/mrs-harris-goes-to-paris-specialty-box-office-1235076409/

[Cappoedameron]

There's something very funny about the dumbass that filmed a dead body in a suicide forest not liking Nope because it deals with the theme of society needing everything to be a spectacle. He did not like that the movie was targeting what is wrong with people like himself.

 

How that man still has any semblance of a career after the crap he pulled in Japan I will never know.

 

 

[eddyxx]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Nope has same RT audience score as Morbius

1 morbillion locked!

[krla]

4 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

How long are we going to say "without China" though? There's tons of movies from the past that never got a China release, you can't really expect big box office from China at this point until things change 

It's relevant when people use a movie with a healthy China gross to make a movie w/o China look even worse by comparison. 

[M37]

10 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Maybe so, but I wouldn't take a loan against my house on a prediction that the floor for Nope is $120m.

 

 

Neither would I - but its also decently above the $100M number that I've seen tossed out

 

Worst Case: The $44M weekend sticks (I think it comes up), gets to only ~$64M for first week, drops >60%+ for week 2, then >50% in week 3 vs Bullet Train (losing PLFs, similar to Thor), and finally settles into a -45% path from there, adding in Labor Day weekend bump, gets you to roughly $115M. (And to reiterate again, my $120M comment was based on a expected first week gross of $67M+, a target that may not be reached)

 

And that would be a worse run/legs, relative to time of year of utter lack of competition, than Us or either of the late summer horror/thriller releases (Old, Candyman) from last year, without Morbius or even Thor levels of WOM.

 

Feel free to mark this comment down and refer back to it, because I don't expect that worst case scenario to play out, that it's more likely Nope pushes for $130M than falls below $120M

[Legion Again]

I could see the week at more like 60 if 44 sticks. Not my 50th percentile, but not like 2nd percentile either. Maybe 10th ish.   
 

And I’d take the under on 44.    
 

Still even like 6.4-37-16-53 is a 112M and I think that is being quite pessimistic.

[Legion Again]

Thor performance definitely is embarrassing, but it’s excusable considering the movie sucked.

[NamakFiskKa]

On 7/24/2022 at 4:11 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think there are many directors that can open a movie to nearly $50M with just their name. Probably Nolan and Cameron are only ones other than Peele.

And it would continue to lower if Peele keeps up