NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Noctis]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Neither would I - but its also decently above the $100M number that I've seen tossed out

 

Worst Case: The $44M weekend sticks (I think it comes up), gets to only ~$64M for first week, drops >60%+ for week 2, then >50% in week 3 vs Bullet Train (losing PLFs, similar to Thor), and finally settles into a -45% path from there, adding in Labor Day weekend bump, gets you to roughly $115M. (And to reiterate again, my $120M comment was based on a expected first week gross of $67M+, a target that may not be reached)

 

And that would be a worse run/legs, relative to time of year of utter lack of competition, than Us or either of the late summer horror/thriller releases (Old, Candyman) from last year, without Morbius or even Thor levels of WOM.

 

Feel free to mark this comment down and refer back to it, because I don't expect that worst case scenario to play out, that it's more likely Nope pushes for $130M than falls below $120M

 

Thank you and I apologize for making that comment about you - hadn't made that comment to someone in so long and then finding out you were a MTC number cruncher made me laugh (in a good way).

 

[Valonqar]

12 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

It's not embarrassing but it definitely left a lot of cash on the table given how popular Ragnarok and Thor in IW/Endgame were.

 

IW yes. A lot of fans thought that Fat Thor overstayed his welcome and were concenred with his turn into a straight up comedy character. Which continued in L&T. So Ragnarok was a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it invigorated the franchise, on the other hand, made the character more comedic than others outside of GOTG which needed to be handled with care. IW found the perfect balance, but Endgame and L&T did not. 

 

That said, this may be my personal peeve but I never found team-ups between characters with the same powers particularly exciting. The fun is in combining different powers or pitting them against each other. NWH gets away with 3 Spideys only cause they are from old and new movies to that's the attraction, never seen before. But Thor + Mighty Thor? Kazillion people who open the fucking portals? Kazillion widows doing gunkata? People shooting cosmic zapper shit from their hands? ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. 

 

Point being, Ragnarok had a better team-up than L&T. Thor/Hulk>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Thor'n'Thor. There's a reason why Avengers have variety of powers and skills and thus is the biggest franchise in the world. 

[WrathOfHan]

 

[Nero]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Nope, nope no disappointment.

[Valonqar]

They have just made the disappointment legit with that defensive article. The moment you start to explain things you lost. 

[LonePirate]

I am just wondering where the budget went for Nope. The cast is not large nor do they normally command hefty 8 figure salaries. The production design was minimal. The special effects were not extensive nor that complex. If you had told me the budget was half of what it was, I would have believed it.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

I am just wondering where the budget went for Nope. The cast is not large nor do they normally command hefty 8 figure salaries. The production design was minimal. The special effects were not extensive nor that complex. If you had told me the budget was half of what it was, I would have believed it.

 

It's full of SFX that doesn't look like SFX. Not all SFX is monsters. 

[Krissykins]

Let’s be mindful of potential Nope spoilers or hints. 
 

Doesn’t open internationally for 3 weeks. 

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Let’s be mindful of potential Nope spoilers or hints. 
 

Doesn’t open internationally for 3 weeks. 

 

Understood but I'm just giving a general view of SFX. People mostly associate SFX with obvious such as creatures, futuristic vehicles (spaceships), etc. However, there's SFX that isn't obvious and it's getting more and more popular because it creates safer environment. Something that looks like an ordnary thing - Cavill's mustache - can be SFX and often is. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Valonqar

[vale9001]

27 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I am just wondering where the budget went for Nope. The cast is not large nor do they normally command hefty 8 figure salaries. The production design was minimal. The special effects were not extensive nor that complex. If you had told me the budget was half of what it was, I would have believed it.

Oscar Winner and Black Panther actor Kaluuya definitely got and it absolutely deserves an 8 figure contract for a new movie with Peele after how much money they made with Get Out. 

Another one getting 8 figures salary I guess was... well Jordan Peele.  After the box office of his first two movies it deserved it too. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by vale9001

[BruiseCruise]

Yeah I highly doubt Kaluuya got 8 figures

[CoolioD1]

that variety article that came out about star salaries recently says kaluuya got $4mil.

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I am just wondering where the budget went for Nope. The cast is not large nor do they normally command hefty 8 figure salaries. The production design was minimal. The special effects were not extensive nor that complex. If you had told me the budget was half of what it was, I would have believed it.

I mentioned it before but I'm pretty sure filming with IMAX cameras must cost a pretty penny. I saw the movie in the format over the weekend and have to say it was definitely worth seeing that way.

[vale9001]

According to a recent article by Variety Kaluyaa got 4M for the movie. Wow I'm really expecting a lot more, i hope he has some percentage on the box office.

 

I don't understand why an Oscar Winner, an actor in a blockbuster like Black Panther  and of a movie with 255M earning on a 4M budget is taking less than half of Timothee Chalamet for Wonka. Chalamet hasn't an Oscar, Dune is not Black Panther and the others 2 movies he made are indie movies with no box office lol 

Edited July 25, 2022 by vale9001

[The Panda]

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Avatar 2 does 1b DOM and 3b+ WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

[Eric the Ape]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Avatar 2 does 1b DOM and 3b+ WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

With their powers combined, the biggest moneymaker of all time...is an Iron Man reboot starring Tom Cruise with James Cameron. Papa Feige, get on this pronto mah boi!

[Legion Again]

Just now, Eric the Superdog said:

With their powers combined, the biggest moneymaker of all time...is an Iron Man reboot starring Tom Cruise with James Cameron. Papa Feige, get on this pronto mah boi!

People wanted Cruise iron man in DS2, just put him in SW and get Cameron to direct  

[LonePirate]

17 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

According to a recent article by Variety Kaluyaa got 4M for the movie. Wow I'm really expecting a lot more, i hope he has some percentage on the box office.

 

I don't understand why an Oscar Winner, an actor in a blockbuster like Black Panther  and of a movie with 255M earning on a 4M budget is taking less than half of Timothee Chalamet for Wonka. Chalamet hasn't an Oscar, Dune is not Black Panther and the others 2 movies he made are indie movies with no box office lol 

That is a mystery which makes you wonder if the obvious reason is the actual reason.

[BruiseCruise]

The Black Panther point is totally moot, he wasn't the star of that movie or even #2. 

[Nero]

23 minutes ago, The Panda said:

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Avatar 2 does 1b DOM and 3b+ WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

2nd is not happening. But yeah top 3 finish is guaranteed