Weekdays 08-16 /08-19

[M37]

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Calling it now: aside from maybe Dragon Ball, we are not getting a 15M+ opener until Halloween. Top Gun can probably be #1 again at some point.

I think Smile will surprise and break that streak, $15-$20M (if not higher)

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I think Smile will surprise and break that streak, $15-$20M (if not higher)

If it's decent, maybe. Barbarian seems like it's a fun genre movie but one that will piss off audiences from first reactions.

Edited August 18, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Barbarian seems like another 20th Century/Disney dump. I doubt it makes much.

[DAJK]

I think Bros could surprise to a low-20s opening. 

[Eric Duncan]

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
-	(1)	Bullet Train	Sony Pictures	$1,520,000	-31%	-35%	4,357	$349	$59,724,500	13
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	Warner Bros.	$840,000	-29%	-37%	3,803	$221	$60,997,416	20
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	Sony Pictures	$605,000	-22%	-28%	2,916	$207	$74,060,228	34
-	(8)	Elvis	Warner Bros.	$400,000	-24%	-25%	2,211	$181	$142,551,467	55
-	(-)	Summering	Bleecker Street	$4,878	-28%		260	$19	$49,002	6
-	(-)	A Love Song	Bleecker Street	$4,357	-6%	+40%	107	$41	$91,027	20
		6		$3,374,235

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

I think Smile will surprise and break that streak, $15-$20M (if not higher)

I’m sensing a breakout on Smile. The trailer gets a reaction every time. 

The trailer definitely played with Top Gun in America too, not sure if that was every showing or not. 
 

$20m+ and wouldn’t be surprised with $30m+. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Krissykins

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

12 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Calling it now: aside from maybe Dragon Ball, we are not getting a 15M+ opener until Halloween. Top Gun can probably be #1 again at some point.

You really don't think Bros will open over 15? That seems easy.

 

Don't Worry Darling could go over that if it doesn't get trashed at Venice

 

I could see lowteens for Woman King

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The trailer definitely played with Top Gun in America too, not sure if that was every showing or not. 

A 40 second trailer plays right before Top Gun that only shows the scene with the guy in the hospital. Got it before Crawdads as well so they use that trailer for PG-13 titles. The full trailer plays before The Black Phone, Bullet Train, etc.

[M37]

19 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You really don't think Bros will open over 15? That seems easy.

 

Don't Worry Darling could go over that if it doesn't get trashed at Venice

 

I could see lowteens for Woman King

[Doffy]

Paramount really fucked tgm historic legs last Wed and thu.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Doffy

[The Dark Alfred]

Another fantastic Wednesday hold for TGM (up 3% from last week) on its Hall of Fame flight to 700m. TITANIC is still the king, but now MAVERICK is clearly ahead of E.T. and AVATAR. What we are witnessing here is one of the greatest runs of all time.

Biggest domestic 12th Wednesday:

1. Titanic                            $1,115,628     3,103    $359   $452,570,393  Mar 11

2. Top Gun: Maverick           $965,845     3,181    $304   $676,653,036  Aug 17

3. E. T.                                   $890,713     1,709    $521   $230,189,023  Sep1

4. Avatar                                $747,131     2,163    $345   $722,954,237  Mar 10

 

[Jiffy]

9 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Paramount really fucked tgm historic legs last Wed and thu.

It annoys me too but nobody really cares about ranking 4th or tied for 2nd on $1m+ day streak compared to increasing on 12th weekend.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I don't think anything I'm saying is hopeful.

 

Bros is a big studio romcom that targets LGBT community and produced by Apatow. His only 3 day openings under 15m were:

This is 40- 11.5m (Dec 2012)

The Five Year Engagement- 10.6m (April 2012)

Drillbit Taylor- 10.3m (March 2008)

Wanderlust- 6.5m (Feb 2012)

Popstar- 4.6m (June 2016)

Walk Hard- 4.1m (Dec 2007)

Most of these were more broad comedies anyway with mostly average reviews. Bros is more like Bridesmaids, Trainwreck, Knocked Up.

 

Simple Favor opened to 16m in 2018 and that was a Lionsgate release. Don't Worry Darling is bigger and more prestige and a WB release. Looking to capitalize off Venice and the Wilde, Harry Styles, Florence Pugh buzz. As long as it isn't trashed, I don't see why it couldn't perform similarly. 

 

Woman King is a wildcard, but Northman opened to like 11m and a similar setting but aimed at a different demographic should put up similar opening. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 83

 

BLACK PANTHER: $17.3m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$0.8m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $686.6m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $701.6m

AVERAGE (LAST 31 DAYS): $693.86m (+0.03% YD)

 

First time in 16 days the Lock On Bogey is over $700m.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

A 40 second trailer plays right before Top Gun that only shows the scene with the guy in the hospital. Got it before Crawdads as well so they use that trailer for PG-13 titles. The full trailer plays before The Black Phone, Bullet Train, etc.

Excellent exposure for sure. 
 

I just get a feeling Smile will breakout. The premise is quick and easy to sell. TV spots and social media ads will be eye catching. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think anything I'm saying is hopeful.

 

Bros is a big studio romcom that targets LGBT community and produced by Apatow. His only 3 day openings under 15m were:

This is 40- 11.5m (Dec 2012)

The Five Year Engagement- 10.6m (April 2012)

Drillbit Taylor- 10.3m (March 2008)

Wanderlust- 6.5m (Feb 2012)

Popstar- 4.6m (June 2016)

Walk Hard- 4.1m (Dec 2007)

Most of these were more broad comedies anyway with mostly average reviews. Bros is more like Bridesmaids, Trainwreck, Knocked Up.

 

Simple Favor opened to 16m in 2018 and that was a Lionsgate release. Don't Worry Darling is bigger and more prestige and a WB release. Looking to capitalize off Venice and the Wilde, Harry Styles, Florence Pugh buzz. As long as it isn't trashed, I don't see why it couldn't perform similarly. 

 

Woman King is a wildcard, but Northman opened to like 11m and a similar setting but aimed at a different demographic should put up similar opening. 

All of this true, but also ignores how the market has shifted to a large degree to streaming, particularly with adult dramas and comedies, which are much cheaper to produce for platforms looking to fill/add content, reducing the demand for theatrical openings. Audiences are getting those itches scratches elsewhere 

 

Comedy in particular has fallen off a cliff after 2015 (the last time Apatow had an opening over $15M) - is it not unreasonable to expect Bros to be more in the Tag/Blockers/Game Night range, with additional post-pandemic depreciation, rather than recreating success that hasn’t been seen in 7 years, for any film (the highest grossing comedy since 2016 is Good Boys at $89M)

 

And the biggest market decline post-pandemic has been in adult dramas, where the last 18 months are littered with sub $15M openings, like for example Death on the Nile’s $13M following up Orient Express’s opening to $28M in before times 

 

None of this is an indirect criticism of the potential quality of these releases, only the shift in where and when audiences are choosing to consume them. Maybe an under $20M bar is more apt than $15M … but recent history heavily suggests lowering the expectations 

[krla]

I wonder if the current epidemic will have an effect on Bros. I imagine a lot of right-wing sources will be wringing their hands over the film. Maybe the outrage will drive more people to see it, lol. Though maybe left-wing types don't want to watch a film with some gay stereotypes in the current environment.

[setna]

2 hours ago, Jiffy said:

It annoys me too but nobody really cares about ranking 4th or tied for 2nd on $1m+ day streak compared to increasing on 12th weekend.

I care!!!

I think this is one of the most amazing records in b.o. history.  After E.T. only 2 movies in 40!!!! years have donde this and for sure is something really difficult to achieve and special.

[setna]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 83

 

BLACK PANTHER: $17.3m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$0.8m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $686.6m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $701.6m

AVERAGE (LAST 31 DAYS): $693.86m (+0.03% YD)

 

First time in 16 days the Lock On Bogey is over $700m.

 

What a great hold!!!
With monday number, i was worried about the 700 M, but after this great wednesday now the lock is very very close..
It´s the first time in its run that wednesday drop is lower than tuesday bump, what a amazing run to follow!!

[CoolioD1]

just got back from seeing the new dragon ball. man that animation style kinda killed the whole thing for me. fights were lamer than usual because of it.

Edited August 18, 2022 by CoolioD1