Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[interiorgatordecorator]

6 minutes ago, Cap said:

Tar was an overly long film with nothing interesting to say on its various subject matters anchored by a perfectly fine, yet certainly not remarkable, Cate B performance. She was great it in, because she is always great in everything

 

Tar was overlong but a lot of fun, made by a director who put a lot of thought into every aspect of the movie, sure it has some problems, but its so entertaining that it does not deserve to be discarded as oscar bait

[GOGODanca]

 

[Sophie]

Can anybody let me know what the odds are that Chosen makes up in Mon-Thurs, for the ~800K lead that Menu apparently has over it in the first 3 days?

[Eric Furiosa]

Imma be honest here and say that I am vouching for every awards contender this year and want to see as many small movies succeed, because the current box office situation sucks...but She Said is kind of a sickening film IMO. This is a film about something the industry has been trying to suppress and hide for decades and now here's this major release from a big Hollywood studio trying to get awards glory from the same voting body that allowed Harvey to do whatever he wanted? And from a producer who probably abused his wife? Yeah, this is despicable. This is the one movie this year that I am glad bombed like crazy.

[grim22]

 

 

[Cap]

I am just gonna assume Kevin was like “Yeah, we’re done here.”

[filmlover]

I never expected She Said to do particularly well at the box office (FWIW I saw the movie and it is a well-made and empathetic examination of its topic, but very nuts-and-bolts-y about the work of investigative journalists that makes it hard to fully embrace) but was hoping it would become the definitive project on the topic so that we could avoid the inevitable Ryan Murphy miniseries about Weinstein (I’m guessing under Monster? American Crime Story seems to be old news now after Impeachment was a total nonevent). I finally finished Dahmer a few days ago and had to roll my eyes even more at all those kids who had watched the series and came away from it dressing up as him for Halloween.

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I never expected She Said to do particularly well at the box office (FWIW I saw the movie and it is a well-made and empathetic examination of its topic, but very nuts-and-bolts-y about the work of investigative journalists that makes it hard to fully embrace) but was hoping it would become the definitive project on the topic so that we could avoid the inevitable Ryan Murphy miniseries about Weinstein (I’m guessing under Monster? American Crime Story seems to be old news now after Impeachment was a total nonevent). I finally finished Dahmer a few days ago and had to roll my eyes even more at all those kids who had watched the series and came away from it dressing up as him for Halloween.

I know I heard about this. It's everywhere. A friend of mine told me some teen came to her door on Halloween like that. She just wanted the kid to take his candy and leave.

 

It's sick. What is wrong with people (the kids because, honestly, they know better, and the parents)?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Verrows said:

I know I heard about this. It's everywhere. A friend of mine told me some teen came to her door on Halloween like that. She just wanted the kid to take his candy and leave.

 

It's sick. What is wrong with people (the kids because, honestly, they know better, and the parents)?

It’s almost entirely because they cast a young and attractive actor like Evan Peters (who is excellent in the series btw) in the part. If given the option between him and the real Dahmer, no one would’ve given the latter the time of day. Also, they scheduled the show to land in time for spooky season. At least we know the casting for Weinstein would be limited (even with the caveat that the actors are always more attractive than the real people) because no one would consider the man himself a prize if not for the fact we know he’s a revolting human being and a criminal.

 

The announcement of two more seasons of Monster via anthology just makes me me go “oy.”

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

True for many, but Tar isnt like that (will watch banshees neext week)

The industry reporting about Tár's box office says things like, "Before the pandemic, a presumptive Best Actress winner vehicle would make $20 million!" Which wasn't even always true, but even so, I can't imagine Tár making that much even 5 or 10 years ago. How many hit movies have there been about conductors/composers? Amadeus was a really long time ago, had a much different tone and one of the lead characters was Mozart. And the Black Swan comparisons don't work either, it was much easier to cut flashy trailers/ads and hook people in with the premise, compared to Tár.

 

*

 

Bob Iger is back?! Maybe Disney will go back to treating animated movies like crown jewels instead of Disney+ bait.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[MikeQ]

Well, I was wrong about Wakanda Forever's second weekend - and BOP was spot on. I remember back in the day when I used to be a whole lot better at this (and one of the top predictors on the BOM derby). Not so much anymore - that's what happens when I don't follow box office in the fanatic and granular way I used to as a young'n... 😅

 

Nonetheless, here's an updated list for those who find them interesting. I expect Wakanda Forever will fare quite well next weekend, with the Thanksgiving holiday. 

 

Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies

 

Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend)

1. Avengers: Endgame — 147.4 million (-58.7%)
2. Avengers: Infinity War — 114.8 million (-55.5%)
3. Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%)
4. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 84.5 million (-67.5%)
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%)
7. The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%)
8. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%)
9. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%)
10. Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%)
11. Captain Marvel (2019) — 68.0 million (-55.7%)
12. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) — 67.3 million (-62.9%)
13. The Batman (2022) — 66.5 million (-50.4%)
14. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%)
15. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%)
16. Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 61.0 million (-67.5%)
17. Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%)
18. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%)
19. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%)
20. Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%)
21. Joker (2019) — 55.9 million (-41.9%)
22. Aquaman (2018) — 52.1 million (-23.2%)^
23. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%)
24. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%)
25. Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%)
26. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) — 46.6 million (-67.7%)
27. Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) — 45.4 million (-51.0%)*
28. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)*
29. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 44.2 million (-62.2%)
30. Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%)

*Opened on a Tuesday/Wednesday

^Second weekend was December holiday weekend

 

Peace,

Mike

[filmlover]

I doubt anyone's going to lose any sleep over movies like TAR, She Said, Till, etc. making little in theaters or that it'll affect their awards chances (whatever those may be) because everyone is still trying to navigate the specialty/adult market after two years of a changed landscape for those movies thanks entirely to COVID. Before the pandemic, a movie like She Said definitely would've bowed in 4 theaters in LA/NY first to build buzz, but now, studios just roll the dice and take gambles that often end up not paying off. It's not likely going to get much better for the rest of the year either, both for awards movies or for adult dramas in general. No one knows if The Fabelmans will even reach West Side Story's total once it has fully gone wide. Bones and All will go nowhere. I mentioned in the tracking thread earlier Devotion's sales are looking especially anemic, to the point where I don't think it would be a shock if it did sub-$5M for the 3-day portion. Spoiler Alert will probably be lucky if it makes as much as Bros (though there won't be any handwringing over it since it doesn't have the expectations of a box office hit attached to it like that movie did). Babylon is likely going to be another First Man/Widows/Vice at the box office with its divisive reactions. The one wild card I see among the group is I Wanna Dance with Somebody, but that's probably going to depend on how it approaches her life given the recency of this particular doomed icon (given such, I don't think anyone would object if they went the Bohemian Rhapsody route and avoided the sad ending).

[Sophie]

Does anybody know what kind of money Chosen will likely make in the Monday-Thursday frame?

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, Sophie said:

Can anybody let me know what the odds are that Chosen makes up in Mon-Thurs, for the ~800K lead that Menu apparently has over it in the first 3 days?

 

Probably not much now...most tv streaming events (which can be seen on streaming after) don't tend to have much staying power...

[Noctis]

The Menu was great. Absolutely loved it. Everyone here please watch it - such a twisted, funny film with fantastic performances.

 

Also, steeper than expected drop for BP2. Most likely a finish around Catching Fire. Expected better legs. At the most, I'll be very surprised if it manages to pass $450m. 

 

I've forgotten...do drops get worse that it's Thanksgiving next weekend?

Edited November 21, 2022 by Noctis

[AnDr3s]

66.5 for BPWF

the question over or under the batman 2nd weekend

[Sophie]

Are there any early Monday estimates like there are for Saturday and Sunday?

 

What's the earliest I can see estimates for Monday numbers?

[efialtes76]

26 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

66.5 for BPWF

the question over or under the batman 2nd weekend

Under.

$66.48M

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, AnDr3s said:

66.5 for BPWF

the question over or under the batman 2nd weekend

Weekend comes in well under the estimates from Sunday. Usually it's the other way around

 

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Weekend comes in well under the estimates from Sunday. Usually it's the other way around

 

 

Under, but I don't know about well under - it's less than a $1M under...