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Eric the Fall Guy

Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

By Eric the Fall Guy, in Numbers and Data

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Eric the Fall Guy

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https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-black-panther-wakanda-forever-the-menu-anya-taylor-joy-she-said-1235176102/

 

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EXCLUSIVE: The Searchlight absurdist genre comedy The Menu got off to a promising start with $1M+ last night in previews, we hear. That number is up there with recent comps as Barbarian which did $850K on its Thursday night before a $10.5M opening, and The Northman, another Anya Taylor Joy movie, which posted $1.35M before a $12.2M start. The opening weekend estimate for the Mark Mylod directed movie which also stars Ralph Fiennes, Nicholas Hoult and John Leguizamo among others is around $8M. If this movie gets to $10M, it would be a nice oasis for counterprogramming in the face of Disney and Marvel Studios’ mammoth Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which is expected to do a second weekend in the $70M-range. That preview number for The Menu includes some cash from Wednesday and previews that began at 5PM yesterday. The Menu is 91% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and currently has a good audience score of 83%.

 

Universal’s movie about the New York Times reporters who exposed movie mogul Harvey Weinstein, She Said, isn’t expected to do much this weekend, in the low single digits. Previews from 1,600 theatres that began at 5PM were only $160K.

 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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21 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Why is it "1M+"? Was Deadline not allowed to have specific data for The Menu for some reason? It's weird.

Usually the studios just report them - FSL didn’t. So it’s probably from an insider source rather an official estimate 

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BoxOfficeFangrl Box Office Gold

BoxOfficeFangrl

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Article originally posted in the Tracking Thread, about the problems facing specialty releases now:

 

 

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A classic platform release begins with a run in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles. Instead of the gross, the per-location average is the measure of success. In the pre-pandemic era, a “good” location average could easily be north of $75,000 or even more than $100,000. For example, the opening average for the Oscar-winning

 Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) was $106,000. Those days are over.

 

Some of the specialty chains have closed and moviegoing habits have changed with viewers who used to see these things in theaters. This year, Everything Everywhere All At Once opened in limited release to a 50K per theater average and eventually reached $70M. Other platform releases haven't been as fortunate...

 

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Focus Features’ Cate Blanchett-starring Oscar contender Tár, released in early October, posted a promising opening-location average of $39,655 from four theaters in New York and L.A. But it began to struggle as it expanded, earning only $1.1 million when booking 1,087 locations in its fourth weekend. As of Nov. 15, Tár is available on premium VOD and saw its screen count drop to 359 (its current box office cume is $4.6 million).

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Among other current Oscar contenders, MGM and UAR’s Till leads the pack with a domestic total of $8 million, but so far hasn’t crossed over. The jury is out on Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans and Searchlight’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical movie launched in NYC and L.A. over the Nov. 11-13 weekend to a location average of $40,394. The film will face a major test over Thanksgiving, when it plays in roughly 600 theaters.

From Searchlight, Inisherin has certainly fared better than Tár, grossing $5.7 million as of Nov. 13 after increasing its location count from 58 to 895 in its third weekend, but it likely won’t come close to matching Birdman’s domestic gross of $42.3 million.

 

 

The Menu is also Searchlight, but is being pushed to 3,000 theaters, their biggest release ever. I guess the best move is to sell a prestige hopeful to general audiences right out of the gate, if at all ppossible. If not, the movie wil probably struggle at the box office. And if the movies aren't making money in theaters, of course they'll hit VOD much sooner than before.

 

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Deadline early Friday numbers: 

 

Wakanda Forever $17-19m

The Chosen $3.7m

The Menu $3m

Black Adam $915k

Ticket to Paradise $880k

She Said $800k

 

 

That is insanely bad for The Menu if it includes previews. 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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3 - 2.3 - 1.7 = 7M OW for The Menu. Fucking lmao. Awful holds for Ticket to Paradise (goodbye 70M) and Black Adam (goodbye sequel, 170M, Cavill, everything) as well.

Edited by CJohn
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