Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[Torontofan]

Thing is the market is pretty barren till avatar so it likely have decent late legs. 

 

I think its heading to 450 plus million without much issue. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Torontofan

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Torontofan said:

Thing is the market is pretty barren till avatar so it likely have decent late legs. 

 

I think its heading to 450 plus million. 

It's gonna be rough between now and Avatar, especially next weekend given the major holiday. I don't see Devotion hitting $10M over the 5-day or Bones and All making $3M over the extended holiday either.

[GOGODanca]

The posttrak numbers were really good, almost NWH levels, i don't think it was crazy for us to think this movie could have a Batman like 2nd weekend hold, and eventually blow past 500m considering the the absolute dearth of competition

[Reed121]

33 minutes ago, M37 said:

Speaking of setting expectations, I’m not sure why $65 is the default number thrown about? BPWF should be more Sat/Sun heavy than comps throughout its run, so +70/-30 is what I have penciled, basically $66-$69M off a $17.75M Fri, maybe an outside shot of cracking $70 with a really strong Sat. $65 is more the floor, not the midpoint, and a $28M+ Sat would be -50% or less from opening Sat, better than Thor or Strange

Well the numbers have mostly been on the lower end instead of the higher end so I’m expecting a 28m Saturday and an 18-19m Sunday.

[Eric Deetz]

Just wanted to mention before the numbers come in that you have eight days left to submit your list for your favorite Coen Brothers movies. You just have to make a top 5, and you are good to go, so no excuse not to submit a list.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

37 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

The posttrak numbers were really good, almost NWH levels, i don't think it was crazy for us to think this movie could have a Batman like 2nd weekend hold, and eventually blow past 500m considering the the absolute dearth of competition

 

That was crazy, if anyone thought it. TB only dropped 50% its 2nd weekend. That would be over $90M for WF. 

[Eric Deetz]

 

[Cooper Legion]

That”s not so bad for menu after all. 9-9.5ish?

[Eric Deetz]

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Not bad for WF. Should go at least +50% today and potentially up to +70%. Weekend something like....

 

17.9 - 27.5 - 19

 

[M37]

Have a feeling most of Deadline's early numbers besides BPWF are going to be too low. I don't know if they weren't adjusting properly for the holiday last week or what, but didn't really mesh with Thursday and historical trends for the pre-Thanksgiving Friday

[Eric Deetz]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Have a feeling most of Deadline's early numbers besides BPWF are going to be too low. I don't know if they weren't adjusting properly for the holiday last week or what, but didn't really mesh with Thursday and historical trends for the pre-Thanksgiving Friday

I mean Deadline's early numbers are always off lol

[froztking]

4 hours ago, EmeraldWitch said:

So, at what point do you think the whole cinematic universe thing will stop being successful? More and more contents being add and people find it's a pain to get in the train or keep up with it? Just like how it's big part of the problem that causes comics dying (were they?) while manga are taking over the world?

mcu will probably do a soft reboot with secret wars !nd maybe even reduce the content for some time ! they r yet to bring mutants/x-men nd f4 etc. they can do various different types of movies with them specially the mutants from political thrillers to horror/ action nd comedy etc . if they correctly executes these stuff nd understands nd judge the audience pulse then this can go for another few decades ! nd disney have to get out of marvels dependency for marvel to get rid of the pressure to produce more content every yr 

[narniadis]

Much better and more in line with expectations for the Menu. WF doing normal. 

 

Addendum to the conversation about ticket prices. One thing to remember, there is a reason that the National average has to be used. For every major city theater getting closer to and or over the $20 mark you have plenty of smaller non city sites that are cheap. $5.75 yesterday for the wife and I to purchase tickets. Next weekend in Dallas seeing Knives Out, the tickets are still under $10 for a Friday matinee. So yes, while ticket prices have gone up, not in all places to the extremes that get floated around here. 

 

Its also another interesting tidbit into how much the NYC and LA markets inflate things on a national scene. 

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

It's basically testimony to the power of Brand Marvel and the love for the mentioned lead star that this movie opened 180 million and will do 480-490 lifetime.

 

not really...   Posthumous albums sell well OW too..    and Fast 7 was $1.5B after Paul's death..   a huge OW was expected. 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

I mean Deadline's early numbers are always off lol

Not always, but enough that its a running joke (you'd think they'd be better at it by now?).  But they can be off because they are over/under projecting Friday, or not extrapolating those numbers well for the weekend.  Usually its the latter, but in this case I think it might be more of the former ... though that Banshees number is pretty bad, so maybe not

[Johnny Tran]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The idea is, X-Men Done Right would have massive potential in this current environment.

 

Are they right?  Beats me.  But the X-Men are iconic for a reason.

 

(also don't sleep on nostalgia from the 90s cartoons kicking in)

meh... That's YEARS away...       2026 and beyond.. 

[Eric Deetz]

 

[Eric Deetz]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

not really...   Posthumous albums sell well OW too..    and Fast 7 was $1.5B after Paul's death..   a huge OW was expected. 

I mean the difference between Walker and this is that Paul Walker is in the movie itself. There's a morbid curiosity seeing somebody again in their final role. That's different from "not in the movie, but everybody talks about them in the background".

[M37]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

not really...   Posthumous albums sell well OW too..    and Fast 7 was $1.5B after Paul's death..   a huge OW was expected. 

But those examples are where the deceased artist is PART OF the final product.  A little different when the story has to move on without them, like Nirvana releasing an album without Kurt Cobain