Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[The Dark Alfred]

I was hoping 20+ Friday for WF. If the trend continues it's going to narrowly beat DS2 domestically and can kiss goodbye to 900m WW. Expecting to recover and hopefully be closer to 70m than to 60m over the weekend.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's good! It's just... 

 

A tough movie to discuss because there's so much to say! I could say it's a singular and loopy mix of YA + horror atmosphere. I could say very few filmmakers have such a supernatural conjuring of sensuality as Luca. I could say Mark Rylance sounds like the old man from Family Guy in it. So I will refrain from saying anything to not sound dumb!

 

I actually feel like it could do... ok when it expands. It ends on a jolt. Maybe similar to a mid-tier A24 release and hit around 10m

I was more so 🤨 over you not acknowledging my bae lmao

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Eric Killmonger said:

I was more so 🤨 over you not acknowledging my bae lmao

Oh I know... I'll leave the Chalamet talk to the Chalamet historians. 

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, Sophie said:

2.4x multiplier for Panther isn't good, but it's not as bad as what we've seen from some others, like Strange.

 

2.5-2.6x would have been on par with normal, considering that it's a November release. 

Thing about Strange was that everyone knew it didn't meet expectations. Thor L&T was just not well liked. But BP2, with a 95% audience score and an A cs should not have a 2.4X. We're not at the point of having this debate quite yet, but we will know if we should when we finish Thanksgiving break.

 

Civil War had an 89% audience score.

[Legion Again]

All the discussion around 2ndwknd/ow and total/ow completely ignoring that it was holiday inflated is really tilting me. You will have more informative numbers for both if you pretend it opened to like 173M instead.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Flopped]

Saturday's bumps still be significant vs last week's. 

[charlie Jatinder]

65 wil likely lead to 475M ish.

[raegr]

Maybe it can leg it out to 500 but after a muted week maybe not

 

But then again there's thanksgiving too remember?

[Ryan Reynolds]

6 minutes ago, raegr said:

Maybe it can leg it out to 500 but after a muted week maybe not

 

But then again there's thanksgiving too remember?

muted first week reminds of Last Jedi , everyone was confused , making excuses about people still working and Christmas is coming up 🙈

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

muted first week reminds of Last Jedi , everyone was confused , making excuses about people still working and Christmas is coming up 🙈

Yup, but the difference is that TLJ had that second week which was still a holiday. BP2 will have only one holiday week (not a full week for many) surrounded by slow weeks.

 

If this weekends comes in closer to $65 million, it won't get much past $450 million IF that much. Lower than $65 million and it's not topping $440 million.

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

muted first week reminds of Last Jedi , everyone was confused , making excuses about people still working and Christmas is coming up 🙈

I think the moment the Christmas number dropped for that one, it was clear where we were heading.

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Saturday's bumps still be significant vs last week's. 

[Legion Again]

MCU pre-thanksgiving wknd Multis:

TDW 3.7x

DS1 3.9x 

Rag 4.1x
Et 3.6x

 

Even 3.7 would take 65 to low 460s. I would peg it more like 4x which takes 65 to ~480

[RichWS]

500 seems dead. If it does only make 65 this weekend, I'd guess it finishes in the 450-470 range. If this were a summer release, the range would go a little lower but I'm assuming the complete lack of competition and the holidays will carry it a bit higher.

 

MCU movies percentage of final gross by end of the 2nd weekend from lowest to highest (only sequels and post-Endgame films):

 

NWH - 58.4%

Ant-Man 2 - 61.4%

Guardians 2 - 63.7%

SC - 64.4%

IW - 66.8%

Ragnarok - 67.3%

L&T - 68.1%

Ultron - 68.3%

Far from Home - 70.3%

MOM - 71.1%

Black Widow - 71.6%

Eternals - 71.6% 

Endgame - 72.4%

Civil War - 72.5%

 

Black Panther 1 was 57.6% but we know that's not happening. 285 of 460 is 62%, which would put it on the better end of this list.

[narniadis]

Seems on point, especially if it can come in on the upper 18-19m range. Mid upper 60s (as well as 70m) should still be the goal if Saturday is appropriately big. 

 

Saw it today and its good, if a tad overlong. WOM in my rural area continues to be in line with the A. 

[DC Rich]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

MCU pre-thanksgiving wknd Multis:

TDW 3.7x

DS1 3.9x 

Rag 4.1x
Et 3.6x

 

Even 3.7 would take 65 to low 460s. I would peg it more like 4x which takes 65 to ~480

 

All of those movies were coming off their 3rd weekend though.  Would those multipliers still be applicable to WF since it's coming off its 2nd weekend leading into the Thanksgiving weekend?  I don't think there are a lot of other comps to go by, so I wasn't sure. 

[filmlover]

Looks like The Menu is a bit on the frontloaded side and unfortunately/unsurprisingly dismal for She Said. I saw the former this evening and am curious what the legs will be like: I liked the movie, but I heard a lot of “weird movie” comments on the way out heh. Guess we’ll find out the CinemaScore soon.

 

Black Panther’s drop is big but what can you do. The hold over Thanksgiving will paint a clearer picture.

 

Speaking of which, what does everyone think the Thanksgiving openers will do? Feels like they’re all headed for lackluster grosses (though The Fabelmans should post a decent PTA with its theater count).

 

 

[Flopped]

RIP Marvel. Good riddance. 

Help us King James Cameron, you're our only hope now. 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, Flopped said:

RIP Marvel. Good riddance. 

Help us King James Cameron, you're our only hope now. 

 

 

 

I blame the existence of agatha coven of chaos for this

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Wakanda Forever's drop is surprising, but it makes sense once you realize the audience who would have gone for repeat viewings is gone. Plain and simple. These big drops will become the norm for Marvel going forward. The fans will rush to see it and that base is big enough to make the franchise profitable, but everyone else seems comfortable waiting for a digital release. I'd start worrying about Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars if I were Marvel.