Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[Sophie]

I'm only interested in the race between Chosen and Menu this week. 

 

If Chosen gets 10M and Menu gets 8M, I wonder if Menu could make it up on the Mon-Thurs gross. 

 

Neither of my local theaters seem to have any showings for Chosen scheduled after Tuesday, so I'm guessing it's supposed to be a limited time release?

[snarkmachine]

25 minutes ago, raegr said:

Well, RDJ and Chris Evans weren't build over one movie. By the time the Avengers came out, RDJ was in three movies already. Shang Chi and the newer characters need time to grow and develop just like the OG Avengers did in Phase 1. Plus, Scarlett Witch is massively popular, Yelena has a huge following online, and so does Shuri. 

 

Ant-Man has had two movies plus an Avengers, Strange has had two movies plus key roles in the Avengers and NWH. I agree we should wait to see how other leads grow over time but Shang-Chi was the worst part of his own movie. I just don't see the passion there.

 

Having a huge following online =/= selling a movie ticket and getting butts in seats.  

[snarkmachine]

15 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Neither Scarlet Witch, Yelena, nor Shuri will be in the big three. Their big new trio is Sam Captain America, Captain Marvel, and Doctor Strange. People need to get excited for these characters, not the ones you mentioned.

 

Is that really the new Big Three? I just don't see the fan investment for any of those characters there to make them pop.

 

It should be Spiderman plus F4 (if they get the casting right).

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

33 minutes ago, raegr said:

loooooooooooooooool

 

also I love your profile pic. she was my fave character in TSS 

Hopefully she returns soon now that Gunn runs DC 

[Factcheck]

6 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

 

Is that really the new Big Three? I just don't see the fan investment for any of those characters there to make them pop.

 

It should be Spiderman plus F4 (if they get the casting right).

 

 

Sam Captain America, obviously, and Captain Marvel will also be in the big 3, as Feige said, and she was in the Shang-Chi mid-credit scene, which was directed by Destin Daniel, who will now direct Avengers 5. So yes, this is the most likely scenario.

[snarkmachine]

Giving Sam a whole Captain America movie makes zero sense to me. He's not even one of the more popular supporting characters.

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, raegr said:

Even 600M is a good gross. Most blockbusters would dream of 600M. Mind you, that's 1/3 of Marvel's theatrical films for 2023. There's still GOTG3 and The Marvels, both of which will easily clear 850M at the very least with ease

Honestly, $500-600M is barely over flop territory for most blockbusters, even when we're talking about 5 years ago. GOTG is modestly popular stateside but rather weak overseas. GOTG2 made 863M out of 389M DOM and 470M OS; losing China + Russia and dropping in many OS markets (oh it will) already shave at least 150M off that total. I'm not saying that it cannot get to 500M domestic to make up for the OS loss but "easily" is definitely not the word to use.

 

Captain Marvel was Endgame-powered the same way Black Panther was Infinity War-powered, without its quality and cultural impact. As we are seeing Wakanda Forever may struggle to 850-900M, The Marvels will have a hard time getting anywhere close to that.

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Sam Captain America, obviously, and Captain Marvel will also be in the big 3, as Feige said, and she was in the Shang-Chi mid-credit scene, which was directed by Destin Daniel, who will now direct Avengers 5. So yes, this is the most likely scenario.

I will be surprised if the next Cap film is over 600M. No shot it becomes one of the leads the MCU imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just an observation, and obviously I'm not the most unbiased source on this - I have noticed many, many more of my friends that I'd say are "casual MCU" people saying these movies are all starting to feel the same. Marvel is very very far from dead. But I think without upping the stakes or changing the formula,, they also have finally hit a hard ceiling outside of NWH. And that's okay! 

The biggest complain around me is that Marvel is making movies just because they  can. They are basically cashing their goodwill. There is no big picture story being told, which is what made Phase 3 breakout.

 

 

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

 

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The biggest complain around me is that Marvel is making movies just because they  can. They are basically cashing their goodwill. There is no big picture story being told, which is what made Phase 3 breakout.

 

 

 

 

Any Friday numbers ?

[Liiviig 1998]

WF -850-900

QM - 550-700

Marvels -700m

GOTG.  - 850-900m

Deadpool - 850-1bn

 

Kang dynasty and secret wars 2B+

 

Can't predict the rest.

 

[Reed121]

1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Honestly, $500-600M is barely over flop territory for most blockbusters, even when we're talking about 5 years ago. GOTG is modestly popular stateside but rather weak overseas. GOTG2 made 863M out of 389M DOM and 470M OS; losing China + Russia and dropping in many OS markets (oh it will) already shave at least 150M off that total. I'm not saying that it cannot get to 500M domestic to make up for the OS loss but "easily" is definitely not the word to use.

 

Captain Marvel was Endgame-powered the same way Black Panther was Infinity War-powered, without its quality and cultural impact. As we are seeing Wakanda Forever may struggle to 850-900M, The Marvels will have a hard time getting anywhere close to that.

The Marvels will have its main character. Whatever it makes is the most it could have made.

Wakanda Forever will not gross as much as it would have with Chadwick  (assuming Cinemascore was not lower and reviews were not worse). The movie is much more somber than it would have been and will reduce repeat viewings.  Many people who aren’t seeing the movie would have if there was T’Challa whereas very people if any who are seeing the movie wouldn’t have with T’Challa. 

 

[FilmFincher]

I saw Black Panther: Wakanda Forever last night and have a lot of complicated feelings about it.

 

I appreciate that I could walk out of this film and have actual thoughts rather than “Yeah that was fun” and moving on with my life. Coogler was trying his hardest to make this so much more than your typical Marvel movie.

 

My audiences reaction to it really made me uncomfortable in a way I wasn’t expecting, especially the credits scene. 

There’s a way in which Marvel have been training their audience to watch their films. And I think Wakanda Forever often butts heads with that by having actual scenes with real human connection and confronting reasonably complicated ideas/morals while also trying to do the Marvel thing. 

It’s at war with itself and it doesn’t help that the film doesn’t have a clear central character for it’s first two acts which makes it feel scattershot and unfocused. 

 

It’s really forced me to take a look at what I want/need from these movies. 

I wanted the Ryan Coogler movie that was hiding in there.

 

My audience didn't want that and I'm fairly sure that's how we got to Russo’s Tiki-Tok Hercules.

Edited November 19, 2022 by FilmFincher

[Spidey Freak]

1. No other franchise can even come close to the MCU (even Phase 4) in terms of BO collections and number of films

 

2.

[Krissykins]

25 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

1. No other franchise can even come close to the MCU (even Phase 4) in terms of BO collections and number of films

 

2.

None of the X-Men films ever made it over $235m domestic. Are they really the gigantic deal Twitter makes them out to be? 
 

I’d say nostalgia could kick in, but they had Days of Future Past and they’ll be recasting anyway surely. 
 

(not counting Deadpool)

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

None of the X-Men films ever made it over $235m domestic. Are they really the gigantic deal Twitter makes them out to be? 
 

I’d say nostalgia could kick in, but they had Days of Future Past and they’ll be recasting anyway surely. 
 

(not counting Deadpool)

 

The idea is, X-Men Done Right would have massive potential in this current environment.

 

Are they right?  Beats me.  But the X-Men are iconic for a reason.

 

(also don't sleep on nostalgia from the 90s cartoons kicking in)

Edited November 19, 2022 by Porthos

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I honestly think it's time to prepare for Guardians 3 being the lowest grossing movie in the series. The people who drive up repeat viewings are long gone. I'm also expecting both Quantumania and The Marvels to peter out at around the half-billion range worldwide. Not even Wakanda Forever with its word of mouth can get much past Dr. Strange 2 numbers.

 

Superhero fatigue might honestly be here. Very dark times ahead for exhibition if the genre they rely on turns to dust.

[Reed121]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

None of the X-Men films ever made it over $235m domestic. Are they really the gigantic deal Twitter makes them out to be? 
 

I’d say nostalgia could kick in, but they had Days of Future Past and they’ll be recasting anyway surely. 
 

(not counting Deadpool)

I love X-Men, they’re probably my favorite part of Marvel and because they were much more popular than The Avengers before the MCU you’d think they would be bigger than them in the MCU but I agree people may be overestimating their general audience appeal. I don’t know if the mutant dynamic can appeal as much and there may be too many of them.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Reed121

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

 

Any Friday numbers ?

17.75

[EmeraldWitch]

So, at what point do you think the whole cinematic universe thing will stop being successful? More and more contents being add and people find it's a pain to get in the train or keep up with it? Just like how it's big part of the problem that causes comics dying (were they?) while manga are taking over the world?