Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[John Marston]

I don't think a gross in the 400s is that bad considering the star of the first being gone and franchise fatigue but its clear most were expecting more and I bet Disney themselves wanted 1 billion and another Best Picture nom

[Sophie]

"That was higher than the ceiling for most people's BP predications back in 2017/2018."

 

What tf do predictions from 5 years ago about an entirely different film released in an entirely different environment have to do with this movie we're discussing today? 

 

Sequel to massive stablished brand has higher expectations than a dark horse untested character had 5 years ago. What a shock!!!

 

Takes like these make discussing box office feel like torture. It's not that hard people. Look at the ACTUAL predictions that were being posted and published before the film released, and compare it to the gross. 

 

Everything else is useless excuses and fake hindsight. 

 

Wakanda Forever looks like it's going to make about ~85% of what was previously expected out of it. Oh well. Not a catastrophe. We're just going to have to slightly reduce our expectations for Black Panther, and for the MCU again. 

[raegr]

1 minute ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Omg? You think so?? 

 

The first Cap marvel made 1.1B and 950M w/o China. At least 850M isn't completely far fetched for the sequel. Especially if it gets good reviews and with the inclusion of Ms. Marvel and Monica. 

 

GOTG is wildly popular. Even moreso due to their appearances in IW and Endgame. So I think 850M isn't off the table. Especially considering the last one did 863M. Also, if they're able to market this as a proper send-off and create a sense of finality, it will do well. 

[snarkmachine]

I think Marvel also has a lead character problem. People had an emotional attachment to RDJ and Chris Evans and Chadwick - I don't see that same investment for any of their leads now except Tom as Spiderman. Yes, Ant-Man 3 and Captain Marvel and Shang-Chi and Strange will make money - but is it going to endure past opening weekend? WF has shown that as strong as your supporting characters are, you need your lead there to be the anchor. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by snarkmachine

[JustLurking]

GOTG3 could clear 850M but I don't think The Marvels will to be honest.

[raegr]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

I don't think a gross in the 400s is that bad considering the star of the first being gone and franchise fatigue but its clear most were expecting more and I bet Disney themselves wanted 1 billion and another Best Picture nom

I'm saying. Not everything is going to be a NWH or BP or Endgame. Those are Box Office CULTURAL events and anomalies for a reason. If they happened every year or a few times a year, they wouldn't special or impactful. It takes a lot of work to get the internet going and build a movement around a film. Especially in the age of streaming and other forms of media taking up people's attention (social media, video games, TV, streaming, etc.)

 

it's very rare that a movie captures the cultural zeitgeist, much less a sequel an already popular movie. TDKR was successful but not as successful or as huge of an event as TDK because that was a cultural moment that's difficult to capture twice. TDKR was still WILDLY SUCCESSFUL. Another example is TFA, which was a HUGE event film followed by a still successful but less popular second one. I suspect the same thing will happen w Spider-Man 4 where it will still be massively successful but not make as much money as NWH because that kind of performance was rare in the first place. The first Black Panther was a lighting in a bottle. One of the first Black heroes on the screen + build up for Infinity War + great reception. All the stars (no pun intended) aligned for that film. WF is still great, but the film industry and movie landscape has changed now. Marvel is less scarce and streaming is more popular than ever. Some people may say that they'll just stream it 

[raegr]

7 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

I think Marvel also has a lead character problem. People had an emotional attachment to RDJ and Chris Evans and Chadwick - I don't see that same investment for any of their leads now except Tom as Spiderman. Yes, Ant-Man 3 and Captain Marvel and Shang-Chi and Strange will make money - but is it going to endure past opening weekend? WF has shown that as strong as your supporting characters are, you need your lead there to be the anchor. 

Well, RDJ and Chris Evans weren't build over one movie. By the time the Avengers came out, RDJ was in three movies already. Shang Chi and the newer characters need time to grow and develop just like the OG Avengers did in Phase 1. Plus, Scarlett Witch is massively popular, Yelena has a huge following online, and so does Shuri. 

[raegr]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

GOTG3 could clear 850M but I don't think The Marvels will to be honest.

Maybe. It depends on how the film is received. I'm hearing they're going the more silly/funny route which i think would be a mistake 

[Ryan Reynolds]

SHE SAID (2022)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

"A" Cinemascore for She Said

[raegr]

Headed to bed guys, but I just wanted to say that it's great to be back and I hope you guys have a great sleep and can't wait to talk again tmrw  

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, raegr said:

Omg? You think so?? 

 

The first Cap marvel made 1.1B and 950M w/o China. At least 850M isn't completely far fetched for the sequel. Especially if it gets good reviews and with the inclusion of Ms. Marvel and Monica. 

 

GOTG is wildly popular. Even moreso due to their appearances in IW and Endgame. So I think 850M isn't off the table. Especially considering the last one did 863M. Also, if they're able to market this as a proper send-off and create a sense of finality, it will do well. 

 

11 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

GOTG3 could clear 850M but I don't think The Marvels will to be honest.

 

If they market GOTG3 as a pseudo-finale for these characters, we might get a nice boost. I can see anything from $375M to $500M domestically (with my target being $425M). GOTG has always been relatively weak OS for an MCU franchise. It'll probably do $350-400M on that front. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Nice that the 8 people who saw She Said tonight enjoyed it

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

 

If they market GOTG3 as a pseudo-finale for these characters, we might get a nice boost. I can see anything from $375M to $500M domestically (with my target being $425M). GOTG has always been relatively weak OS for an MCU franchise. It'll probably do $350-400M on that front. 

I think 375M to 425M is a safe bet. Especially with the special coming, it will definitely boost awareness of the IP for sure 

[Factcheck]

6 minutes ago, raegr said:

Well, RDJ and Chris Evans weren't build over one movie. By the time the Avengers came out, RDJ was in three movies already. Shang Chi and the newer characters need time to grow and develop just like the OG Avengers did in Phase 1. Plus, Scarlett Witch is massively popular, Yelena has a huge following online, and so does Shuri. 

Neither Scarlet Witch, Yelena, nor Shuri will be in the big three. Their big new trio is Sam Captain America, Captain Marvel, and Doctor Strange. People need to get excited for these characters, not the ones you mentioned.

[OncomingStorm93]

The Menu was an absolute delight, 2nd best of the year for me behind EEAAO, just ahead of Banshes of Inshirin. And with Glass Onion, Fabelmans, and Babylon all out soon, finally getting some quality cinema in a big blast.

 

I wasn’t expecting it to lean so much into the dark comedy, I thought that was more the side flavor but it’s a dark comedy through and through, and a biting one.

Edited November 19, 2022 by OncomingStorm93

[raegr]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Nice that the 8 people who saw She Said tonight enjoyed it

loooooooooooooooool

 

also I love your profile pic. she was my fave character in TSS 

[raegr]

Just now, Factcheck said:

Neither Scarlet Witch, Yelena, nor Shuri will be in the big three. Their big new trio is Sam Captain America, Captain Marvel, and Doctor Strange. People need to get excited for these characters, not the ones you mentioned.

I think we may be past the phase of a BIG THREE per say. I think we will branch off into different corners of the MCU where different ppl with have different characters they like. I think that's what's happening here. The Disney+ fans becoming insular and liking their fave shows, the BP fans supporting that, the thor fans supporting that. Marvel needs to find a way to bring these fans together again and I think Secret Wars will do that, but I think they're in a new experimental phase rn. They don't want to do another Phase 1, 2, 3; they're trying to reinvent themselves in the streaming era. So far it's had mixed results, but the brand is still strong i think 

[Ryan Reynolds]

18 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

SHE SAID (2022)

MENU, THE (2022)

[Factcheck]

6 minutes ago, raegr said:

I think we may be past the phase of a BIG THREE per say. I think we will branch off into different corners of the MCU where different ppl with have different characters they like. I think that's what's happening here. The Disney+ fans becoming insular and liking their fave shows, the BP fans supporting that, the thor fans supporting that. Marvel needs to find a way to bring these fans together again and I think Secret Wars will do that, but I think they're in a new experimental phase rn. They don't want to do another Phase 1, 2, 3; they're trying to reinvent themselves in the streaming era. So far it's had mixed results, but the brand is still strong i think 

The brand is strong, but if they don't get excited for the big three like they were during phases 1-3, then the Avengers movies will suffer at the box office, as brand can only help a movie to a certain extent; the rest depends upon audience emotional attachment to the characters.