Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[raegr]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

muted first week reminds of Last Jedi , everyone was confused , making excuses about people still working and Christmas is coming up 🙈

looool. even if it "only" makes 450-475M, that's still an enormous gross. That was higher than the ceiling for most people's BP predications back in 2017/2018. Most solo superhero outings make only 250-400M these days so this a terrific win for the marvel brand that they're still able to pull these numbers despite mixed reception for the past few films/tv shows, a recession and lack of china/worse exchange rates. 850-900M is still great! 

[interiorgatordecorator]

so what will be the excuse for quantumania?

[Ryan Reynolds]

10 minutes ago, raegr said:

looool. even if it "only" makes 450-475M, that's still an enormous gross. That was higher than the ceiling for most people's BP predications back in 2017/2018. Most solo superhero outings make only 250-400M these days so this a terrific win for the marvel brand that they're still able to pull these numbers despite mixed reception for the past few films/tv shows, a recession and lack of china/worse exchange rates. 850-900M is still great! 

Marvel will have to watch their budgets now though , 150m should be the max unless Avengers event film

[raegr]

I don't think quantumania needs to gross 1B to be successful. I think a solid 750M to 850M gross would be acceptable. Especially if it grosses more than its predecessors. People need to readjust their expectations. With the rise of streaming, a growth of the marvel brand and the content like TV Shows and Christmas specials, us heading into a recession and exchange rates/china's refusal to accept any superhero movies, it's going to be very hard for a lot of movies to cross 1B going forward. Heck, if it wasn't for China, Civil War would have made nearly the same amount of money as Multiverse of Madness (which shocker, did the same amount without China). We're living in a different time now where theaters are a premium and luxury experiences. Having the 45ish day window doesn't help either. 

[raegr]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Marvel will have to watch their budgets now though , 150m should be the max unless Avengers event film

 

I think  200-250M is still fine. Disney will walk away with a nearly 200M profit if this gets to 850-950M. Not to mention the merchandise, home video and people buying D+ just to stream this 

[thajdikt]

2 minutes ago, raegr said:

I don't think quantumania needs to gross 1B to be successful. I think a solid 750M to 850M gross would be acceptable. Especially if it grosses more than its predecessors. People need to readjust their expectations. With the rise of streaming, a growth of the marvel brand and the content like TV Shows and Christmas specials, us heading into a recession and exchange rates/china's refusal to accept any superhero movies, it's going to be very hard for a lot of movies to cross 1B going forward. Heck, if it wasn't for China, Civil War would have made nearly the same amount of money as Multiverse of Madness (which shocker, did the same amount without China). We're living in a different time now where theaters are a premium and luxury experiences. Having the 45ish day window doesn't help either. 

Expecting more than 600M is simply unrealistic. Ant-Man has always been in terms of grosses nothing but terrible when you compare it to all the other MCU franchise. How much did Ant-Man 2 make in prime MCU time? 550M? This reaching 600M would be a great success. 

[raegr]

Ant Man 2 made 622M. 75m OW, 216M DOM. There's no reason to think AM3 at the very least can't get to 700M with decent reception, especially considering he was a fan favourite in Avengers Endgame, there's excitement surrounding Kang, and despite the past few years, the Marvel brand is still incredibly strong despite mixed reviews for some of the shows and movies. 

[keysersoze123]

you have to realize how wide these MCU sequels are opening these days. Wakanda despite being very long movie had 40K+ previews and 160K+ fri-sun shows not including Canada. That will burn off demand faster than norm. Plus with Streaming release not too long after release does limit legs. Even another reincarnation of batman after ok 1st 2 weeks did drop off fast despite fairly good WOM. This movie to me over performed considering its missing the central lead of 1st movie. Its big overseas drop is expected considering $ strength/ china/russia gone and impact of no chadwick. even a MCU market like Brazil saw admission drop from 1st movie. Mexico despite Namor is not seeing much of a boost. Its mostly driven by Asian markets growing(minus korea and Japan has limited to no growth).

 

Ant-man also will drop OS from previous movie considering the same headwinds seen by Thor and Wakanda. I am not seeing anything big changing adding a character from Loki show. 2nd movie released at the height of infinity war hype and did good but nothing uber blockbuster level. I am surprised we have not seen huge cameos like XMen/Fantastic Four characters in these movies to up the hype. There were rumors of a big F4 character coming up in wakanda that did not pan out. 

[DAJK]

Thinking 100/250 run for Ant Man at the moment, maybe 600 worldwide.

[Cmasterclay]

Just an observation, and obviously I'm not the most unbiased source on this - I have noticed many, many more of my friends that I'd say are "casual MCU" people saying these movies are all starting to feel the same. Marvel is very very far from dead. But I think without upping the stakes or changing the formula,, they also have finally hit a hard ceiling outside of NWH. And that's okay! 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Cmasterclay

[thajdikt]

In my opinion the MCU is fine. This was always bound to happen after the Infinity Saga. It was literally 5 months ago that Doctor Strange grossed 940M. Imagine if people actually liked the movie. The MCU was always going to stabilize downards after Endgame. It lost China which seemingly nobody wants to actual factor in and China was huge for the MCU in terms of grosses. I don´t know how we can say that these movies are only watched by fans when they get to 800M+. Wakanda Forever was always going to drop from the first one and it pretty much has everything going against with exchange rates, world cup, lost it´s lead and all that. Tho I hoped it would have hold stronger. 

 

I wouldn´t say 800M-900M is anything amazing rather it´s OK result. I think that the movie was liked by the fans is more important than any other thing. If this would have gotten same reception as Thor and Mom then I would really have been worried for Ant-Man 3.  Now the two latest MCU projects have been received well. But the days of MCU churning out 1B is over. 

[thajdikt]

17 minutes ago, raegr said:

Ant Man 2 made 622M. 75m OW, 216M DOM. There's no reason to think AM3 at the very least can't get to 700M with decent reception, especially considering he was a fan favourite in Avengers Endgame, there's excitement surrounding Kang, and despite the past few years, the Marvel brand is still incredibly strong despite mixed reviews for some of the shows and movies. 

That was with China which i forgot to highlight. I will be very surprised if it even gets closed. 600M without China seems possible. 700M? Maybe if it gets good reviews and WOM?

Edited November 19, 2022 by thajdikt

[Legion Again]

Some of the takes in this thread are getting catastrophically bad 

[PlatnumRoyce]

37 minutes ago, raegr said:

looool. even if it "only" makes 450-475M, that's still an enormous gross. That was higher than the ceiling for most people's BP predications back in 2017/2018.  a recession and lack of china/worse exchange rates. 850-900M is still great! 

Yeah, but that was before Black Panther was one of the biggest hits of all time. You'd expect that earned interest to be sticky to a certain degree. 
If you released Black Panther today in same markets and it sold the same number of tickets, it's INT gross would decline by about 5%. Most of the box office decline is driven by a plunge in ticket sales. We can debate why that is but the real story isn't china or exchange rates it's ticket sales. 

[Verrows]

48 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Wakanda Forever's drop is surprising, but it makes sense once you realize the audience who would have gone for repeat viewings is gone. Plain and simple. These big drops will become the norm for Marvel going forward. The fans will rush to see it and that base is big enough to make the franchise profitable, but everyone else seems comfortable waiting for a digital release. I'd start worrying about Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars if I were Marvel.

Yeah this is what I'm starting to think. Marvel is losing some of the GA. A movie with the quality and WoM that WF has should be doing better. For those that want to jump me and defend the box office honor lol, I'm not saying it's going bad either. It's just sort of ho hum.

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, raegr said:

Ant Man 2 made 622M. 75m OW, 216M DOM. There's no reason to think AM3 at the very least can't get to 700M with decent reception, especially considering he was a fan favourite in Avengers Endgame, there's excitement surrounding Kang, and despite the past few years, the Marvel brand is still incredibly strong despite mixed reviews for some of the shows and movies. 

 

$622M with China and Russia which AM3 will likely not have. Remove those two and we're down to $488M. I'd say a good target for AM3 is $550M with an exceptional target of $600M. 

[raegr]

26 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

That was with China which i forgot to highlight. I will be very surprised if it even gets closed. 600M without China seems possible. 700M? Maybe if it gets good reviews and WOM?

Even 600M is a good gross. Most blockbusters would dream of 600M. Mind you, that's 1/3 of Marvel's theatrical films for 2023. There's still GOTG3 and The Marvels, both of which will easily clear 850M at the very least with ease

Edited November 19, 2022 by raegr

[raegr]

19 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Yeah, but that was before Black Panther was one of the biggest hits of all time. You'd expect that earned interest to be sticky to a certain degree. 
If you released Black Panther today in same markets and it sold the same number of tickets, it's INT gross would decline by about 5%. Most of the box office decline is driven by a plunge in ticket sales. We can debate why that is but the real story isn't china or exchange rates it's ticket sales. 

Idk, the first Black Panther made 105M in China. If this makes 900M like it possibly will, the China theory will hold true 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, raegr said:

Even 600M is a good gross. Most blockbusters would dream of 600M. Mind you, that's 1/3 of Marvel's theatrical films for 2023. There's still GOTG3 and The Marvels, both of which will easily clear 850M at the very least with ease

 

[raegr]

11 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

$622M with China and Russia which AM3 will likely not have. Remove those two and we're down to $488M. I'd say a good target for AM3 is $550M with an exceptional target of $600M. 

 

That's a fair point. 550M/600M is not a bad result. We'll have to see what the reviews are like and how important this is to the larger story but it looks fun. Not a whole lot of competition in Feb/March so it will be fine