Avatar: The Way of Water -- Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!

[TalismanRing]

14 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

$128,258,528

 

 

$134,431,341

[RealLyre]

149M imo

[XXR & Friends]

CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED TO NEW ENTRANTS AND UPDATES!

 

Good luck, everyone!

[M37]

On 12/11/2022 at 1:04 PM, M37 said:

 

$132,370,037

 

Just going to stealth edit this post (before deadline!) and see who notices 🙂

Updated figure above 😉

 

Think you can still make a reasonable argument for something higher, up to the ~$150M ($17/18M @ 8.5-9x) range, but the momentum just isn’t there IMO, and I’m hesitant to bet on it suddenly reappearing in some form. Around to slightly above TGM/Batman OW ($130-$140M) just feels like where this is headed 

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Updated figure above 😉

 

Think you can still make a reasonable argument for something higher, up to the ~$150M ($17/18M @ 8.5-9x) range, but the momentum just isn’t there IMO, and I’m hesitant to bet on it suddenly reappearing in some form. Around to slightly above TGM/Batman OW ($130-$140M) just feels like where this is headed 

 

 

A fair assessment. Feels like $130-150M is almost a certainty. 

[ZeeSoh]

12 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED TO NEW ENTRANTS AND UPDATES!

 

Good luck, everyone!

Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol

Anyways my prediction is 157.5m

[TwoMisfits]

Agreed, it may have been a typo, but the 1st post says 12 CST, which would be 1pm EST, so anyone should have their picks count for the next 43 minutes...

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross?

[Nero]

Just now, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross?

There's no consensus. Depends on who you ask but general range might be 2B - 3B. Some think less than 2B and few think more than 3B.

[XXR & Friends]

14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol

Anyways my prediction is 157.5m

My thought process was the thread would stay open for a hour even though the club was closed, so people could discuss predictions and all of that.

 

Probably a mistake on my part 😅

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross?

 

Consensus is hard to come by on a film where legs are still so much in question. Feels like $650M DOM to me though. 

[M37]

31 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

A fair assessment. Feels like $130-150M is almost a certainty. 

90% CI, I’d agree.  Fwiw, had I still been playing the Derby, probably would have gone ~$137 (for reasons), but given this is a closest to/single winner contest, that gap between $128 and $134 was too enticing to pass up planting a flag 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

22 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Consensus is hard to come by on a film where legs are still so much in question. Feels like $650M DOM to me though. 

that would be pretty good

[XXR & Friends]

Alrighty I’ve input the numbers and here’s what we’re looking at…

 

Contestants = 78 

Mean = $159,467,995 

Median = $157,156,892

Highest = $225M

Lowest $100M

 

Good luck everyone!

 

[ZeeSoh]

23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol

Anyways my prediction is 157.5m

 

I accidently pressed 5 instead of 4 there. 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

I accidently pressed 5 instead of 4 there. 

No worries. I updated your prediction to $157.4 million….

 

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

No worries. I updated your prediction to $157.4 million….

 

Thanks! Phew I thought I had massively overpredicted there. The new number is so much better that I am confident of handily winning. 

 

 

Spoiler

FWIW I went with 146m in survivor.

 

[XXR & Friends]

Well folks, the contest has officially ended and we have a winner. I'd like to think everyone for participating! I will be running another contest in the near future (probably for GOTG3). 

 

The official domestic opening weekend total for Avatar: The Way of Water comes in at $134,100,226 which means that the winner and recipient of one month of premium forum membership coming in only $331,115 off the actual total is....

 

@TalismanRing!!! 

 

 

[grey ghost]

It should've been me but congrats anyway @TalismanRing. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

It should've been me but congrats anyway @TalismanRing. 

 

Honestly, it should have been M37, b/c all their data during the lead up weekdays helped pull down everyone's starting guesses:)...