A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Elessar]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

There is no evidence to support this claim when looking at TGM’s run, starting with a -29% second weekend that Avatar isn’t likely to match with calendar configuration.

 

Why giving so much weight on 1 day (24th)? It doesn't matter that much in the big picture. Plenty of holidays to make up for it.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

"colonial glorifying movie" lol 

 

Cameron entire filmography have strong messages against colonialism and militarism (even if both usually are present on the movies as villains or disposable dumb characters) 

 

Which yes includes Avatar. There is a white savior trope (on the first at least) that sure can be discussed, but you really need to stop taking twitter so seriously. 

 

 

I think that shrugging it off as ‘twitter’ when it comes to actual diverse people voicing their opinions is a mistake, but what do I know, am I right?

[cookie]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

06. Jurassic Park 3 - Bad.

 

Spoiler

 

[krla]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

There is no evidence to support this claim when looking at TGM’s run, starting with a -29% second weekend that Avatar isn’t likely to match with calendar configuration. You could make that claim by comparing to NWH or Rogue One, but TGM didn’t behave like a normal big opening, so topping it’s multiplier requires a similar outlier outcome 

I mentioned the Saturdays issue. Though A2 is unlikely to fall 53% on its first (non-holiday) weekday. It's unlikely to fall 42% in it's third weekend. It'll probably have better weekdays than TGM.

 

Of course if it does do any of those, then that turkey's probably done.

 

But still, in theory (theory being the most important word in my comment), it shouldn't have a problem beating TGM's multiplier. Christmas eve and NYE falling on a Saturday shouldn't vaporize demand, but simply shift it. That doesn't mean it will beat it, just that it shouldn't be a true obstacle,

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, cookie said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Alan! scene is good, but it doesnt save this movie. JP3 is the only JP movie where i want all characters (except Alan ofc) to get eaten as fast as possible. Also THEY KILLED THE T REX WHAT WERE THEY THINKING

 

I give JP3 the Pteranodon dom scene is very cool and the music is good. But its just ... not enough to save it

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

I think that shrugging it off as ‘twitter’ when it comes to actual diverse people voicing their opinions is a mistake, but what do I know, am I right?

I'm latin, i'm "diverse people" and i'm voicing my opinion on it lol 

 

Watching Avatar and ended up thinking is a "pro colonialism" movie is absurd because the movie is exactly about the opposite. I don't care who said it. Like i said i can see by far some problematic things in Avatar, pro colonialism is still spinning too hard.

 

And i'm saying twitter because well it have 50k likes so it's not really one opinion, is it?

[Elessar]

Most anticipated movie for @Brainbug

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Elessar said:

Most anticipated movie for @Brainbug

 

 

This looks so bad, i really hope it's just an bad edited trailer that doesn't really sell the actual movie because i was so excited about it 

[cookie]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Alan! scene is good, but it doesnt save this movie. JP3 is the only JP movie where i want all characters (except Alan ofc) to get eaten as fast as possible.

It's funny, cause I wanted everyone to die in Lost World, lol. Even Goldblum.

 

Quote

Also THEY KILLED THE T REX WHAT WERE THEY THINKING

Spino innocent

 

Quote

I give JP3 the Pteranodon dom scene is very cool and the music is good. But its just ... not enough to save it

Birdcage scene rules. More tense than any of the scenes in the World trilogy bar the haunted house bit in Fallen Kingdom, imo.

 

I like JP3 because it acknowledges what it is and is just a bunch of dumb dino chases for 90 minutes. It doesn't pretend that it's about something more (and fails at it) like Lost World or Dominion. Fallen Kingdom comes closest to being the best sequel thanks to Bayona's directing saving it from that godawful script. They should've brought him back for Dominion instead of having Trevorrow half-ass it.

Edited December 18, 2022 by cookie

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm latin, i'm "diverse people" and i'm voicing my opinion on it lol 

 

Watching Avatar and ended up thinking is a "pro colonialism" movie is absurd because the movie is exactly about the opposite. I don't care who said it. Like i said i can see by far some problematic things in Avatar, pro colonialism is still spinning too hard.

 

And i'm saying twitter because well it have 50k likes so it's not really one opinion, is it?

I’m Brazilian. Son of a Black father, so yeah, same. That we diverge and that you don’t seem to understand the criticism isn’t that it’s ‘pro colonialism’ but that it appropriates the allegory of colonialism to tell a story written and directed by an white person (regardless how much well intended said white person is), with a mostly white cast to tell a story that borrows a whole lot colonialism allegories can be problematic to some is fair, but I think that the criticism does hold some major merit.

[krla]

7 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Bolded: of course not. Saving the rain Amazon forest isn’t just a Brazil’s responsibility, but the world’s. I agree that getting an awful interview from more than 10 years ago isn’t cool, but it’s not like A2 does anything to address the criticisms of the first film, let alone the second one. It does has merit, and shrugging away does more harm than good, in my opinion.

I can't speak to the criticisms of A2, since I haven't seen it, and being a descendant from the land of colonizers leaves me with little perspective. But as a colonizer, I can completely understand the view of how whites got to basically run ramshod around the world, exploit the hell out of everyone and everything, then slowly come to our senses like we're waking up from a horrible bender, and suddenly decide that the peoples we colonized (or attempted to colonize) have a duty to protect their environment, while we sit on a hoard of wealth created by our pilfering. 

 

It's basically like having a mansion on the waterfront, and when some dude comes to build a shack next to it, the mansion owner says "can't build here, this is protected land. Wouldn't want the environment to suffer."

 

"But you built a 90 room mansion here? All I need to build is a simple shack."

 

"Sorry bud, this was built by my very racist, slave owning, colonizing great-great-great-great grandparents. But slavery, racism and colonialism are over now, and we're equals. We both cannot build shacks on this land, and we can both buy existing mansions on this land."

 

Guess James Cameron is a bit like the mansion owner..

[JimiQ]

18 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Why giving so much weight on 1 day (24th)? It doesn't matter that much in the big picture. Plenty of holidays to make up for it.

Exactly this. 25th will more than make up for that. It will be the second strongest A2’s day after 17th.

[M37]

1 minute ago, krla said:

But still, in theory (theory being the most important word in my comment), it shouldn't have a problem beating TGM's multiplier.

To me, "in theory" implies a higher probability outcome, and again, TGM was a significant outlier for legs of $100M openers.  Can Avatwo beat it? Sure, I suppose its possible, but I wouldn't classify that as "shouldn't have a problem" - even "in theory" - because it would also be an extraordinarily low probably/outlier result

 

9 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Why giving so much weight on 1 day (24th)? It doesn't matter that much in the big picture. Plenty of holidays to make up for it.

 

Its not just the one day, but looking at legs overall. I know there is recency bias, because we all just witness TGM's run, but just think there is a lack of understanding of just how far outside the norm that really was - it legged out 25% better than Wonder Woman, and 45% better than Black Panther!!! -  and therefore no one should expect Avatwo to come close to it, much less top it (which is not to say it absolutely can't, but rather that is not at all where the bar should be set)

 

On 12/16/2022 at 10:23 PM, M37 said:

Since its only Friday and we're already into the legs discussion, let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward

 

It's very difficult for a $100M+ opener to have really great legs, because in order to attain that level of opening, there must be at least some high level of hype/anticipation drawing people to the OW, which reduces future potential audience, unless there is great WOM that broadens the audience or encourages repeat watches

 

Of the 68 $100M+ openings ever, these are the only ones which legged out to gross at least 2.3x their first full week (using full week because it mostly balances out the differences in seasons/opening days)

For reference, OG Avatar was a ridiculous 5.47x by this measure

• TGM = 3.49x (!!!)
• Shrek 2 = 2.94x (Wed opening)
• Wonder Woman = 2.79x
• Toy Story 4 = 2.43x
• Black Panther = 2.398x
• Rogue One = 2.397x
• Force Awakens = 2.396x
• Frozen II = 2.35x (Thanksgiving week)
• Avengers = 2.31x

IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)

 

On 12/16/2022 at 10:23 PM, M37 said:

If you want a comp that kinda sorta fits and paints a somewhat optimistic picture, then I offer you (again...) The Hobbit, the first release in a planned series, following-up (well, prequel mostly) the LOTR trilogy 9 years previously, which had an $84M OW, and went on to make 2.68x its first full week, despite a fairly strong slate of competition opening on 12/21-12/25.

 

It can vary somewhat, but for a film opening on this pre-Christmas Friday, multiply by 1.5 to get the standard OW multiplier; so 2.68x the first week is roughly equivalent to a 4x from just OW

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Most anticipated movie for @Brainbug

 

 

 

Movie of the year 2023.

 

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This looks so bad, i really hope it's just an bad edited trailer that doesn't really sell the actual movie because i was so excited about it 

 

It will be good.

 

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

Spino innocent

 

I like that JP3 just admits what it is and is a bunch of dumb dino chases for 90 minutes. It doesn't pretend that it's about something more (and fails at it) like Lost World or Dominion. Fallen Kingdom comes closest to being the best sequel becomes Bayona's directing saves that movie from its godawful script. They should've brought him back for Dominion instead of Trevorrow half-assing it.

 

I dont blame Spino one bit, i blame the writers. And i agree that Bayona should have directed Dominion, Fallen Kingdom is the best-shot/directed film of the JW trilogy by a mile.

[krla]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This looks so bad, i really hope it's just an bad edited trailer that doesn't really sell the actual movie because i was so excited about it 

I liked the trailer. Super pumped to see the film. Though I don't know if I'll hit the theaters for it.

[charlie Jatinder]

I was a bit sad that Avatar 2 isn't doing numbers it should have, after watching it, at least I don't have that weight but now it is doing more than it deserve to do.

[KlapEastwood]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This looks so bad, i really hope it's just an bad edited trailer that doesn't really sell the actual movie because i was so excited about it 

Define bad? It looks pretty good.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its not just the one day, but looking at legs overall. I know there is recency bias, because we all just witness TGM's run, but just think there is a lack of understanding of just how far outside the norm that really was - it legged out 25% better than Wonder Woman, and 45% better than Black Panther!!! -  and therefore no one should expect Avatwo to come close to it, much less top it (which is not to say it absolutely can't, but rather that is not at all where the bar should be set)

 

Just saying the 24th and the 31th falling on a saturday doesn't mean much. On the other hand having more or less 2 weeks of holidays will give it plenty of room to develop some legs.

 

No, we shouldn't expect it to mimic TGM legs wise but we also shouldn't rule it out. If anyone should be given the benefit of the doubt, it's Cameron.

[ZattMurdock]

15 minutes ago, krla said:

I can't speak to the criticisms of A2, since I haven't seen it, and being a descendant from the land of colonizers leaves me with little perspective. But as a colonizer, I can completely understand the view of how whites got to basically run ramshod around the world, exploit the hell out of everyone and everything, then slowly come to our senses like we're waking up from a horrible bender, and suddenly decide that the peoples we colonized (or attempted to colonize) have a duty to protect their environment, while we sit on a hoard of wealth created by our pilfering. 

 

It's basically like having a mansion on the waterfront, and when some dude comes to build a shack next to it, the mansion owner says "can't build here, this is protected land. Wouldn't want the environment to suffer."

 

"But you built a 90 room mansion here? All I need to build is a simple shack."

 

"Sorry bud, this was built by my very racist, slave owning, colonizing great-great-great-great grandparents. But slavery, racism and colonialism are over now, and we're equals. We both cannot build shacks on this land, and we can both buy existing mansions on this land."

 

Guess James Cameron is a bit like the mansion owner..

We have one Earth. There isn’t a back up. There isn’t a plan B. We can’t buy another one at Amazon.com or at Tesla, regardless of some billionaires seem to think. We are truly and steadily approaching Don’t Look Up scenarios when it comes to global warming and the preservation of the environment isn’t just Brazil’s or South America’s interest, but the world’s.

 

Trust me, the effects of the destruction of the Amazon the last years were felt across this country, not just in the Amazon rain forest. It actually hurts the agricultural business for a fast buck from people that want to go for the fast buck and exploit the natives and their land, without realizing they are dooming their next generations by doing so. It’s an actual real and serious issue that seems like it will be dealt more seriously in the upcoming years. There is enough unproductive land beyond the Amazon left completely abandoned around here that with proper planning and management, could be put to good use. What South America and Brazil actually needs is incentives to properly manage the Amazon rainforest and keep it alive, not doing so would be catastrophic for literally everyone. I see how your analogy is well intended, but it’s one planet. We all share it.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Alligator Zatt said:

I’m Brazilian. Son of a Black father, so yeah, same. That we diverge and that you don’t seem to understand the criticism isn’t that it’s ‘pro colonialism’ but that it appropriates the allegory of colonialism to tell a story written and directed by an white person (regardless how much well intended said white person is), with a mostly white cast to tell a story that borrows a whole lot colonialism allegories can be problematic to some is fair, but I think that the criticism does hold some major merit.

Of course is fair, the problem is that you made a very valid point that is not saying the movie glorify colonislism, which is what the tweet said with capital letters and i think is a ridiculous statement.

 

Obviously i always understand why a white director talking about colonialism in a movie that clearly have indigenous culture all over it isn't exactly ideal when actual indigenous director and producers haven't the same opportunity. 

 

Still, is a movie that reached a massive amount of people, and that no matter what, still shows clearly how bad and criminal this is. Is a movie that open discussions, that manages to touch people that maybe never really stop to think about these problems.

 

It's the perfect example? No, never was. Is still valid enough to a point of saying it glorifies colonialism is absurd? Yes imo. 

 

The criticism on the tweet the way it's written is nonsense to me and it's actually saying it's pro colonialism. What you said it's a completely different discussion imo even if it's from the same place, and i don't think there's need to keep arguing honestly because like i said i agreed with you, i just don't think the tweet is saying the same thing you said.