Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Juby]

58 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Avatar will leg out to $600M+ possibly even $650M.

 

I realise there is a chance of it pulling something special like Avatar 1 and hit like $700M+ or something but...

 

If we compare A1 and TFA, two which had same calendar setting, A1 was around 40% of TFA on 1st Monday, it went on to 62% by 2nd Monday, eventually matching it on 3rd.

 

So there were signs of great trending during holiday period as well.

 

In case of A2, it was 92% of Rogue One on 1st Monday and 101% on 2nd Monday, by 3rd Monday its expected to be around 115-120% on high end.

 

The improvement is just not close enough to A1's, so that something special is probably a bit hard.

 

I think we have to wait at least till January 15th to predict the film's final gross. We don't know yet how it will behave next weekend (maybe small <10% drop?) and the weekend after that (is January 6th a Holiday in U.S.? Here in EU it is)? Probably the next "bigger drop" (more than 30%) A2 will have during its 5th weekend, but than it still have 3 whole weeks for itself in cinemas and won't lose PLFs screens till Feb 10th (Titanic's re-release) and won't have any real competition till Ant-Man on its 9th weekend! For now, The Way of Water is still behind Rogue One, but I wouldn't be surprised if the long legs will carrie it over Top Gun: Maverick domestic gross. It might be the leader for 8 weekends straight!

 

The next two weekends OS are going to be massive, I think, probably +$125m both. $1.1B OS by the Jan 8th?

 

[Joyous Legion]

We’ll have a pretty good idea by Jan 1 and a very good idea by Jan 8.

[SchumacherFTW]

15 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

I think we have to wait at least till January 15th to predict the film's final gross. We don't know yet how it will behave next weekend (maybe small <10% drop?) and the weekend after that (is January 6th a Holiday in U.S.? Here in EU it is)? Probably the next "bigger drop" (more than 30%) A2 will have during its 5th weekend, but than it still have 3 whole weeks for itself in cinemas and won't lose PLFs screens till Feb 10th (Titanic's re-release) and won't have any real competition till Ant-Man on its 9th weekend! For now, The Way of Water is still behind Rogue One, but I wouldn't be surprised if the long legs will carrie it over Top Gun: Maverick domestic gross. It might be the leader for 8 weekends straight!

 

The next two weekends OS are going to be massive, I think, probably +$125m both. $1.1B OS by the Jan 8th?

 

I think it could lose SOME PLF if M3gan looks like its going to be a hit, but that'll probably just be in house PLF rather than IMAX, Dolby etc

[JustLurking]

Honestly I don't really get where the window for it to catch TGM really is. I'm sure it will gain on R1 and probably pass it in january but if it doesn't even manage to overtake it during december you're just hoping for way too much ground to be gained during January which just doesn't seem realistic to me.

 

Other countries had/have signs of a great run, DOM market doesn't really.

[redfirebird2008]

16 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

I think we have to wait at least till January 15th to predict the film's final gross. We don't know yet how it will behave next weekend (maybe small <10% drop?) and the weekend after that (is January 6th a Holiday in U.S.? Here in EU it is)? Probably the next "bigger drop" (more than 30%) A2 will have during its 5th weekend, but than it still have 3 whole weeks for itself in cinemas and won't lose PLFs screens till Feb 10th (Titanic's re-release) and won't have any real competition till Ant-Man on its 9th weekend! For now, The Way of Water is still behind Rogue One, but I wouldn't be surprised if the long legs will carrie it over Top Gun: Maverick domestic gross. It might be the leader for 8 weekends straight!

 

The next two weekends OS are going to be massive, I think, probably +$125m both. $1.1B OS by the Jan 8th?

 

 

Holiday period for America ends on Monday, January 2nd. Back to work for a lot of people on Tuesday, January 3rd. The school calendar is going to be different for every town. My local school district has the kids back in school on Wednesday, January 4th. 

 

Avatar 2's overseas run has been extremely impressive so far, and they have room to grow with the next movie since China has been a deflated market. Hopefully it will be back to normal for Avatar 3 in a couple years. In terms of domestic run, it would be amazing if it can go to $700+ million as you mentioned. At the moment I am just wanting to see it break the trend of matching Rogue One's daily gross. Gotta start somewhere. Maybe this can begin happening on Wednesday. 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Honestly I don't really get where the window for it to catch TGM really is.

Several days ago

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

Several days ago

Yeah exactly. Like, if you keep pushing back the window to "catch up to TGM" surely it's got to close at some point, it's just not realistic to just have a standard run then go absolutely crazy in January to make up a ridicolous gap.

 

just kidding, the memorial day weekend curse will be over by january 1 so of course A2 will go crazy

[CJohn]

Rogue One was so fucking massive. It actually ended above Rise of Skywalker in America and barely below it OS/WW. It really enjoyed all the goodwill coming from The Force Awakens.

[Borobudur]

A2 is certainly a boring run domestically so far since the trailer told us this will be motion picture event of the generation. 

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Rogue One was so fucking massive. It actually ended above Rise of Skywalker in America and barely below it OS/WW. It really enjoyed all the goodwill coming from The Force Awakens.

DOM top 7, currently IW at 678M.  But very nearly passed TDK for #6 (currently BP 700M)

[grey ghost]

Over 130 pages for the 2nd weekend.

 

Must be for a boring run at the box office.

[IronJimbo]

57 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

I think we have to wait at least till January 15th to predict the film's final gross. We don't know yet how it will behave next weekend (maybe small <10% drop?) and the weekend after that (is January 6th a Holiday in U.S.? Here in EU it is)? Probably the next "bigger drop" (more than 30%) A2 will have during its 5th weekend, but than it still have 3 whole weeks for itself in cinemas and won't lose PLFs screens till Feb 10th (Titanic's re-release) and won't have any real competition till Ant-Man on its 9th weekend! For now, The Way of Water is still behind Rogue One, but I wouldn't be surprised if the long legs will carrie it over Top Gun: Maverick domestic gross. It might be the leader for 8 weekends straight!

 

The next two weekends OS are going to be massive, I think, probably +$125m both. $1.1B OS by the Jan 8th?

 

 

46 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

We’ll have a pretty good idea by Jan 1 and a very good idea by Jan 8.

 

 

I already did the math it's Wednesday 4th to Monday 9th that will tell all for domestic

 

Rogue 1 tracking like a beast right until it falls off a cliff on the 4th

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

 

 

I already did the math it's Wednesday 4th to Monday 9th that will tell all for domestic

 

Rogue 1 tracking like a beast right until it falls off a cliff on the 4th

 

That will be interesting to see for sure. Rogue One had a 63% drop for the 7-day period of January 6th to January 12th, compared to the 7-day period of December 30th to January 5th. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by redfirebird2008

[Borobudur]

I saw some people mention the significant part of the school remain out until 09 Jan, is that true?

[Hatebox]

14 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Over 130 pages for the 2nd weekend.

 

Must be for a boring run at the box office.

 

91% of the posts are the same two posters, to be fair.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

91% of the posts are the same two posters, to be fair.

you know theres a little box that says the top posters right?

[Hatebox]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

you know theres a little box that says the top posters right?

 

oh no, you got me

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

91% of the posts are the same two posters, to be fair.

Hey now, Sheldon and XXR aren’t even 12% 😛 

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I saw some people mention the significant part of the school remain out until 09 Jan, is that true?

Yes

[eridani]

https://deadline.com/2020/04/2019-movie-profits-top-films-avengers-endgame-russo-brothers-data-1202919361/

 

I'm using the above article and its numbers to try and scrape up an interpolation estimate for A2's costs and earnings, for everything on top of the BO gross earnings and the estimated/rumored 460 million production budget.

This is a fairly conservative rundown. A2 may well go over these figures, so i may do another run of these numbers later on.

 

1900 m global BO

550 m domestic
160 m china
1190 m other OS

 

domestic rental 313 m

china rental 40 m

other OS rental 487 m

total theatrical rental: 840 m

 

worldwide home entertainment 250 m

global TV net 250 m

total revenue 1340 m

***
net production cost (with overhead?) 460 m

worldwide prints and ads 150 m

video costs 85 m

participations 50 m

residuals 40 m

interest 60 m

total costs: 845 m

 

studio profit (before tax) 495 m

cash on cash return 1.71