Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Yes I too as you know got caught up with the Crazy OW predict. Really thought  A2 had that 175-200M OW.. Still its not big you are out the gate, but how much people you keep bringin in down the long stretch. And we know no one is better than that than JC. 

Would love a few suprises at highend of the domestic predicts happen after all. Its crazy that with the pandemic and Weather this film is findng a way to go way over 2B without a 800m-1B+ china haul or Russia etc.

Wow.. 

 

I actually felt like the opening weekend number was pretty good. It was the Monday to Wednesday numbers that were pretty boring IMHO. The weather hurt the numbers from 2nd Thursday to 2nd Saturday, but the weather was still good for Monday to Wednesday. Christmas Sunday number was pretty awesome and it will be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the way! 

Edited December 26, 2022 by redfirebird2008

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Earthquakes? Lol

Japan and India been racked with them.. Where have you been 

6.1-magnitude earthquake hits Japan's Toba - India Today

https://www.indiatoday.in/earthquake-today/story/earthquake-tremor-japan-tsunami-alert-1926205-2022-03-16

[IronJimbo]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I actually felt like the opening weekend number was pretty good. It was the Monday to Wednesday numbers that were pretty boring IMHO. The weather hurt the numbers from Thursday to Saturday, but the weather was still good for Monday to Wednesday. Christmas Sunday number was pretty awesome and it will be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the way! 

Weather had a big effect on wednesday

[Grebacio]

Everyone's talking about Avatar's Sunday but you're overlooking the big real achievement.

 

Thread will be over 100 pages

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Anyone from the Rogue 1 weekend thread remember why it's legs go so so bad from the wed 4th to the rest of the run?

It's 4th weekend drop is so brutal, $49.5m -> $22m ( -54%)

 

Part of that is just the post holiday drop, Sing dropped 52% but recovered, Rogue One didn't.  

[Brainbug]

I will ignore the Dominion slander in here.

 

Btw just got back from Avatar 2. It was the definition of "mediocre story elevated massively by amazing visuals" - so kinda like the first one for me. 7/10, it was well worth the theater experience for sure and i can understand why WOM would be good to great, it definetly is something that should be watched in theaters on the biggest screen possible.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Brainbug

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Weather had a big effect on wednesday

 

Not sure about that. It was still very warm in my neck of the woods. We didn't get very cold until Thursday night. I actually saw the movie at 11 AM Central on Thursday and the weather was very good during this time. It was even warmer on Wednesday for us. By the time I got out of the movie around 3 PM Central on Thursday, the cold front was moving in. Wind kicked up and temperature was dropping fast. Thursday night was extremely cold, all day Friday was also extremely cold, and Saturday morning was extremely cold. It warmed up a bit on Saturday afternoon. Sunday was much, much warmer. 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I actually felt like the opening weekend number was pretty good. It was the Monday to Wednesday numbers that were pretty boring IMHO. The weather hurt the numbers from Thursday to Saturday, but the weather was still good for Monday to Wednesday. Christmas Sunday number was pretty awesome and it will be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the way! 

Yes indeed, though I loved Maverick and its crazy BO run...  I dont think Pandora is done with him on the domestic End... Heh heh.  Kal will be watching the domestic nums closely. 

They keep doubting Cameron and trying to give absolutes of what Avatar 2 is capable off lol

We will see Red.  Im glad your becoming a believer that this ride can go much further on the domestic end. And yep the numbers baby! So exciting these new numbers!!

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

39 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Seated for Whitney with a rose wine and sour patch kids. 
 

My Dad passed away on Christmas Eve and he loved Whitney Houston. The past few days have been tough. 
 

❤️💔

So sorry to hear this. Wishing you and your family all the best in the New Year ❤️

[AJG]

17 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Seems like a good bet

 

I wonder if @AJG still thinks $1.1B is the WW max? 

 

Huh????

 

I’ve actually upped it to less than Age of Ultron total.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Part of that is just the post holiday drop, Sing dropped 52% but recovered, Rogue One didn't.  

Well imo that's the most important moment of the run then, it's going to be outpacing Rogue One slightly until the end of 3rd weekend then it's the big moment on the 4th to let's say 11th

 

Those 7 days we'll be able to see if we're going towards Rogue 1 at the bottom of the cliff or challenging No Way Home

Edited December 26, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, AJG said:

I’ve actually upped it to less than Age of Ultron total.

 

Well in that case I guess we will be doing this again in......7 days or so  

 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Well imo that's the most important moment of the run then, it's going to be outpacing Rogue One slightly until the end of 3rd weekend then it's the big moment on the 4th to let's say 11th

 

Those 7 days we'll be able to see if we're going towards Rogue 1 at the bottom of the cliff or challenging No Way Home

 

Yes, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. At least the Sunday number has given us the possibility of a non-boring run. 

[Deep Wang]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Well imo that's the most important moment of the run then, it's going to be outpacing Rogue One slightly until the end of 3rd weekend then it's the big moment.

 

3rd week weekdays + 4th week full. We'll be able to see if we're going towards Rogue 1 at the bottom of the cliff or challenging No Way Home

 

Yes, I believe you are correct.  That's what happens when you actually put a little effort into research and analysis!

 

Good for you!

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Yes, I believe you are correct.  That's what happens when you actually put a little effort into research and analysis!

Good for you!

Come on man, I put the best analysis and research into how good the film will be and how it will resonate with audiences. I'm an Avatar expert to put it bluntly. Which is why I'm going to come out on top when it comes to legs, that 4th to 11th is going to put your 4x leg club in a coffin (yes like my billie club, for now)

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Well imo that's the most important moment of the run then, it's going to be outpacing Rogue One slightly until the end of 3rd weekend then it's the big moment on the 4th to let's say 11th

 

Those 7 days we'll be able to see if we're going towards Rogue 1 at the bottom of the cliff or challenging No Way Home

 

Avatar 2 will be at low-to-mid $400s at the end of its third Monday. Avatar itself made $390m past its third Monday, and that's pretty much what Avatar 2 would need to reach No Way Home. I think it's pretty fair to say that challenging No Way Home domestically stopped being a possibility quite a while ago.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, Alex SciChannel said:

This film was tracking for $15M-$17M 3-day without the snow storm which is alright for a Universal animated Christmas release.

An animated sequel from the Shrek franchise?

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Come on man, I put the best analysis and research into how good the film will be and how it will resonate with audiences. I'm an Avatar expert to put it bluntly. Which is why I'm going to come out on top when it comes to legs, that 4th to 11th is going to put your 4x leg club in a coffin (yes like my billie club, for now)

 

You also said you did a lot of research into that 190m ow 👀

 

Obviously, the opening weekend coming in so low put my club in jeopardy right out the gate, but shit happens 🤷‍♂️

Edited December 26, 2022 by Deep Wang

[stuart360]

29 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Did he say he thinks it will pass 382M domestic Brother Stewart?  HAHH HAHH?

Yep 382mil tops. He also said 1.1-1.2bil worldwide he he.😎

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

Avatar 2 will be at low-to-mid $400s at the end of its third Monday. Avatar itself made $390m past its third Monday, and that's pretty much what Avatar 2 would need to reach No Way Home. I think it's pretty fair to say that challenging No Way Home domestically stopped being a possibility quite a while ago.

yes exactly, and TGM made $310m after that point. disagree you're putting false limits on it because you think its impossible to challenge first movie numbers post december