Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

List of movies considered "Biggest box office disappointments" (Source: Wikipedia)

 

01. Avatar 2 - 2,1B WW gross - Considered a "flop" because 4 Billion was the target for 1 or 2 users of a certain internet forum and James Cameron said something silly in an interview. Made tons of money anyway.

 

02. Age of Ultron - 1,4B WW - Considered a "huge disappointment" because it grossed less than the first Avengers, grossed less than Jurassic World in the summer of 2015 and had a weak sauce villain. Made tons of money anyway.

 

03. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - Considered a "disappointment" because it grossed 700M less than TFA and fell of a cliff after the Christmas Holidays. For more reasoning see the other Wikipedia article "List of reasons named by the internet why the Last Jedi is the worst/is the best Star Wars movie). Made a ton of money anyway.

 

04. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Frontloading: Made under a billion after opening with nearly 500M WW. Still an impressive feat. Made not that much money.

 

05. Justice League - Made less than 700M WW, despite beeing a "My Man!"-movie. Despite having a battle for supremecy going along in the background of production (see the other Wikipedia article "Zack Snyder vs Joss Whedon: Dawn of the Cut"), this movie failed to reach any of its targets.

 

06. Godzilla: King of the

 

 

Add Dominion to the list

[Brainbug]

Just now, JustLurking said:

Add Dominion to the list

 

[YM!]

I’d have like a better hold from Puss but 5.7M is still good. It should be at around 65M by the end of the weekend. I wonder what the total will be.

[The Dark Alfred]

30 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Brother Alfred? You said finally a  good day??

 

 

Hey bud, I actually said "finally it had a very good day". In terms of comparison with RO, yes A2 finally turned the corner, it was trailing most of its run, whether @stuart360 is capable accepting reality or not. Wednesday is looking like a day where it can have a sizeable chunk of the deficit.

[Sheldon Cr]

14 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I honestly remember way back in the pre Titanic days when people would specualte when we will get a 1bil film, and how at that time it seemed something near impossible.

Come forward to 2022 and we now have 52 BIL+ movies!

Yep 2 billion is still a legendary run for any film, spidey 2021 needed the best Spiderman to final return to the franchise and tons of nostalgia of the Raimi verse along with a.great story to get close. SWS 40 years of fans and tons of movies and shows. The biggest movie franchise of all time..AKA Marvel 80+ years of fans and 20+ movies to make the 2billion mark.

 

2billion is definitely the super milestone to reach nowadays.

Won't be easy for now

Edited December 29, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[KlapEastwood]

Is this thing gonna stay flat from weekend 2 > weekend 3?

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

List of movies considered "Biggest box office disappointments" (Source: Wikipedia)

 

01. Avatar 2 - 2,1B WW gross - Considered a "flop" because 4 Billion was the target for 1 or 2 users of a certain internet forum and James Cameron said something silly in an interview. Made tons of money anyway.

 

02. Age of Ultron - 1,4B WW - Considered a "huge disappointment" because it grossed less than the first Avengers, grossed less than Jurassic World in the summer of 2015 and had a weak sauce villain. Made tons of money anyway.

 

03. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - Considered a "disappointment" because it grossed 700M less than TFA and fell of a cliff after the Christmas Holidays. For more reasoning see the other Wikipedia article "List of reasons named by the internet why the Last Jedi is the worst/is the best Star Wars movie). Made a ton of money anyway.

 

04. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Frontloading: Made under a billion after opening with nearly 500M WW. Still an impressive feat. Made not that much money.

 

05. Justice League - Made less than 700M WW, despite beeing a "My Man!"-movie. Despite having a battle for supremecy going along in the background of production (see the other Wikipedia article "Zack Snyder vs Joss Whedon: Dawn of the Cut"), this movie failed to reach any of its targets.

 

06. Godzilla: King of the

 

 

no pika pika?

[cory]

So to summarize, at the time that A2 was greenlit, it needed to match something like DH2 around 1.3B to break even, so 1.5B sounds about right for today's market. Looking pretty likely like JC will have 3 movies in the top 7 all time WW so I don't know what the trades are on about. 

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

Hey bud, I actually said "finally it had a very good day". In terms of comparison with RO, yes A2 finally turned the corner, it was trailing most of its run, whether @stuart360 is capable accepting reality or not. Wednesday is looking like a day where it can have a sizeable chunk of the deficit.

Well I'm just glad it's not get bested by any film this year and shows JC still has that eye to wow everyone with the greatest epics. Come on Alfred be nice let's all have fun. And happy your now on 2billion table. But facing storms and while the other movies crash avatar still had a 95m 4 day. Gotta admit no way Rogue is a true comparison to A2 my brother.  Take away thBrother. Amd cov A2 would be over 400m already brother and past 1.4b WW in 11-12 days.

 

Will be interesting to see if we actually get a 5.5-6x multiplier domestically.

I feel this is going to hit 700m or better. 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, KlapEastwood said:

Is this thing gonna stay flat from weekend 2 > weekend 3?

Theoretically possible but I’d say a 10-15% drop is the most likely outcome. Let’s see what today brings.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, cory said:

So to summarize, at the time that A2 was greenlit, it needed to match something like DH2 around 1.3B to break even, so 1.5B sounds about right for today's market. Looking pretty likely like JC will have 3 movies in the top 7 all time WW so I don't know what the trades are on about. 

Probably 3 of the top 4 to be honest.

TFA is currently no.4 with 2.06bil.

Edited December 29, 2022 by stuart360

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, YM! said:

I’d have like a better hold from Puss but 5.7M is still good. It should be at around 65M by the end of the weekend. I wonder what the total will be.

It has a clear runway until Mario in April so $120M+ is possible.

[Factcheck]

33 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

BBC news on television just now said Avatar had broken one billion dollars. Then said Cameron had said it needed to get to two billion to break even.  Lmao. 
 

So that narrative is out there in mainstream now. 

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

[Borobudur]

RO drop 22.5% over new year weekend. Let's target a 22.5% gain for Avatar 2 then for a $77m 3 days weekend!

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

At this point I’d say top 6 worldwide is very likely with at least a 50/50 shot of top 4. Going beyond Titanic though is still quite unlikely IMO. 

[Sheldon Cr]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

no pika pika?

😂 .  Oh yes. 30-40billion dollar franchise and they can't figure how to make the.movies a huge success. Indeed mega flops for the pika Charlie

[The Dark Alfred]

1 minute ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

 

Exactly. It's not just Variety, it's every media outlet. In the world. It's a headline news in Hungary, Poland, UK, South Africa, Oz, you name it. Cameron walked into it. Since then he backtracked and said roughly 1.5 billion. Which sounds about right.

 

I agree @Sheldon Cr that 2 billion is a great achievement, no doubt. However, let's not forget that it's the absolute FLOOR that people expected/predicted.

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

because the quote was from an old interview and the narrative is looking at third or fourth highest today. 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

Except there is no specification on when he had that convo with the studio, and in case you haven't noticed that mark kind of changes overtime. Even leaving that aside, a discussion he had with the studio as part od a large interview is not a cost breakdown and reporting it as such is irresponsible at best and malicious at worst.

 

Either way, continuing this argument when Cameron himself went on record to correct that statement is either ignorant or trolling, and frankly just gets annoying. Live up to your username.

[Gkalaitza]

9 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What would the media say when Cameron himself said so? 
This was Cameron's statement:
The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very fucking,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

Factcheck missed the multiple factchecks on this over the last couple of pages. Ironic