New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[DarthOpeningGross]

Wow.  I have not posted here since 2016, but this developing WOTW run is sure interesting and exciting.

Anything north of $65M this weekend would be amazing.   (I mean, $65M-ish is amazing in itself.)

 

Although I actually found WOTW to be a better film than first Avatar, I still don't see it's long-term legs in January and February holding up quite as well as Avatar, simply because I suspect the repeat viewings will be fewer, for a combination of factors (not quite the visual "wow" factor of the first one, with all the cinematic-like streaming options and general downward trend in people going to cinemas vs. waiting for it to stream, etc.)

 

But- at this point - its starting to trend into semi-uncharted Cameron-like territory.... so who knows.  I do think TGM domestic is in serious jeopardy.....

Edited December 31, 2022 by DarthOpeningGross

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

Sure but A2 will be $6M behind A1 3rd Sat. Either way neither mean much for post holiday legs yet, hence the wait-and-see. 

You mean on christmas eve? 🕵️‍♂️ why would you compare those sats, sunday is better to look at

[Dale Cooper]

It's not impossible. It is highly, highly improbable. Never mind the fact that Avatar had insane holds in January, it also kept its 3D screens until Alice arrived early Mars. There is an argument that A2 will have much better legs because of the skew to IMAX/PLF than your regular big movie, but it will be losing them mid February to Ant Man. If Avatar had lost its 3D screens mid February instead, it probably would have made quite a bit less.

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Avatar 2 will be ahead in dailies if weekend numbers hold. A2's Sunday should be around $5m higher than Avatar ($22m vs 17m)

 

Only because of inflated SUN. And MON will obviously be much bigger also because people are still having off.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

So which one is going to be more difficult to top in the future, Endgame's OW or TFA's third weekend?

I'd like to say 3rd, but:

2nd place for OWend is 27.2% behind 3rd weekend is 24.1% behind, but 2nd place is Avatar! not a movie that's just a year old.

The record holder for 3rd weekend:

1997 Titanic 33.3m

2002 Spider-Man: 45m

2009 Avatar 68.5m (still in second place!)

2015 TFA 90.24

 

So it's a lot more steady.

 

But I'd say Avatar 3 has a chance (more favourable weekend placement: no New Year's Eve on that weekend) and it opens a couple of months before Avengers: Kang Dynasty - which is the next movie I think has a chance at OWend record.

The 2nd-weekend record could also hold out until at least then:

It's still TFA - and no movie has a shot currently - next year nothing looks big enough and the same goes for the following year - until Avatar 3, but I think Avatar 3 will fall short and actually, I doubt that Avengers Kang Dynasty will do it - even if it manages to break Endgames OWend record, I think it's going to fall short of the second weekend of Endgame and TFA with it - so we might actually see the 2nd hold even longer.

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

Only because of inflated SUN.

oh yeah but A2's Mon is gonna be 10m+ higher than A1, how do you account for that?

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

 

Yeah, nothing is impossible, but the weird trajectory this movie has been on makes it hard to pin point something specific except extrapolating based on the numbers we get.  

 

I keep thinking about @M37 fantastic chart and how things were behaving in a typical predictable fashion up until Christmas and then it just took off, like a fucking rocket.  Maybe it sustains that and reaches your lofty goals, but maybe it was just a big holiday boost and it cools of after everyone goes back to work/school?

 

It's definitely made the overall run and January a lot more exciting that's for sure!

 

[cory]

3 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

It already did on Friday.

 

3rd weekend will probably go to Avatar 1 and the difference will only grow in the coming weeks.

You mean when A1 had New Year's Day? 

[Torontofan]

Considering the film will be near 1.45 billion by monday

 

I think 2 billion is locked ?

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You mean on christmas eve? 🕵️‍♂️ why would you compare those sats, sunday is better to look at

3rd Sat isn’t Christmas Eve, and no Sunday isn’t. A1 Sunday didn’t have a holiday proxy Monday. Most people had to go back to work and school. A2 still has almost everyone off.

[JustLurking]

Just now, Torontofan said:

Considering the film will be near 1.45 billion by monday

 

I think 2 billion is locked ?

Not sure about the semantics of locked, but with the holds it's having missing 2B looks extremely unlikely. It would have to start collapsing big time soon at this point.

[cory]

Right now I'm thinking 

 

$600M - Floor

600-620 - 10%

625-645 - 25% 

650-670 - 40%

675-695 - 15%

700-715 - 7.5%

720+ - 2.5%

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Torontofan said:

Considering the film will be near 1.45 billion by monday

 

I think 2 billion is locked ?

Barring unforeseen shutdowns for (insert reason), $2B is locked. Over TFA ($2.07B) is 75% likely. The only question really is O/U Titanic. I’m still under.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

3rd Sat isn’t Christmas Eve, and no Sunday isn’t. A1 Sunday didn’t have a holiday proxy Monday. Most people had to go back to work and school. A2 still has almost everyone off.

Will the first true comparison no holiday nonsense be Tuesday or Wednesday>

[Elessar]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

oh yeah but A2's Mon is gonna be 10m+ higher than A1, how do you account for that?

 

What do you mean? I told you MON will obviously be much bigger since people are still off work / school.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Considering the film will be near 1.45 billion by monday

 

I think 2 billion is locked ?

2bil is locked imo. The weekly drops it would need to miss 2bil would be just too high imo.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Will the first true comparison no holiday nonsense be Tuesday or Wednesday>

The upcoming Tues-Sun. Looking at dailies isn’t super helpful, we need patterns.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

Barring unforeseen shutdowns for (insert reason), $2B is locked. Over TFA ($2.07B) is 75% likely. The only question really is O/U Titanic. I’m still under.

It's going to be bitter sweet if it makes over $2.3b, because if China and Russia were in normal states the title could have been challenged

[Grebacio]

4 hours ago, stuart360 said:

A2 should be around 500-510mil after next weekend. R1 is toast, 600mil is toast.

M37 club is toast 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

What do you mean? I told you MON will obviously be much bigger since people are still off work / school.

I was just messing with monday, I know A2 has massive calender advantage