Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[Legion Again]

The only acronym not already answered is night at the museum secrets of the tomb

[IronJimbo]

People in here predicting $38m, why are you still using Rogue One?

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

People in here predicting $38m, why are you still using Rogue One?

...? R1 drop would get it to 30 not 38

[CaptNathanBrittles]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

People in here predicting $38m, why are you still using Rogue One?

 

$38m would be a 42% drop. RO dropped 56%.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Jatinder's higher end would be a 38% drop from New Year weekend. I'm not quite sure if that good of a drop is realistic, but considering how unpredictable this movie's run has been I can see it happening.

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

People in here predicting $38m, why are you still using Rogue One?

It's not R1 per se. It's the entire calendar configuration. It would have to hold as well as Sing, a kiddie pic with boosted Fri/Sat and lighter Sun drops, to reach 42M, which frankly seems a but much. Not saying it can't happen, but that's the reasoning behind it. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

...? R1 drop would get it to 30 not 38

 

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

$38m would be a 42% drop. RO dropped 56%.

Why are you looking at weekend when you could look at the latest days?

A2's tuesday points to $37m using R1

A2's wed points to $38m using R1

 

[mike&night]

15 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

With the different calendar configuration, I don’t expect Way of Water to jump anywhere close to the nearly 120% the original Avatar did. Friday jump will be more muted than that, IMO. 
 

This is supported by the Friday jumps we saw in 2017 with the same calendar configuration as this year:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2017-01-06/?ref_=bo_rl_table_22

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

Thanks Mike!

Is the calendar configuration once the holidays are over accurate? I mean nobody expected TWOW to do +$67M last weekend either, all the estimates I saw were in the high 40s to mid 50s. I guess we'll see. It's fun learning with you guys.

Edited January 5, 2023 by mike&night

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Why are you looking at weekend when you could look at the latest days?

A2's tuesday points to $37m using R1

A2's wed points to $38m using R1

 

Ah I see your point - yeah overall I expect this to keep trending a bit higher (think I predicted it at 42), probably more muted friday jump but a lot better satsun

[hw64]

45 minutes ago, mike&night said:

So far it has managed to outpace Avatar almost every day since release except for holidays (falling on different days of the week). During it's first 10 days it managed to outpace Avatar by +$48M, and it has added an extra +$42M the last 10 days. It is currently outpacing Avatar by +$90M and that advantage has kept growing daily. Why does no one contemplate that TWOW could come close to Avatar's $50M 4th weekend. Am I missing something?

 

Avatar's post-holiday weekends were insanely strong as a result of its stratospheric word of mouth, and Avatar 2 is rapidly coming back down to Earth relative to Avatar after the holidays this week despite being significantly ahead of it during last week's holiday weekdays.

 

Matching any of Avatar's weekends from this point on is a gargantuan task that shouldn't be taken lightly; there's a reason why its first three weekends aren't close to being records, but its fourth weekend and beyond are, often by wide margins. Avatar 2 matching Avatar's Wednesday and Thursday this week — which is largely a result of starting from a higher base point last week, and these first few post-holiday weekdays being a few days closer to the holidays for Avatar 2 than for Avatar — does little to make it more likely that Avatar 2 will match Avatar's fourth weekend.

 

So there's no real reason to believe that Avatar 2 could match Avatar's $50m fourth weekend at this point — it's an extremely difficult feat in the first place, it's simply not trending that way, and it's almost certain to continue to lose more and more pace relative to Avatar as the weeks go on.

 

Actually having some semblance of competition this weekend with M3GAN helps a bit, too.

Edited January 5, 2023 by hw64

[Elessar]

43 minutes ago, mike&night said:

Why does no one contemplate that TWOW could come close to Avatar's $50M 4th weekend. 

 

What do you mean, no one? I could name a few.

 

Welcome, btw.

 

It is a somewhat different calendar setup than during the original's run, which makes the comparison a little bit more tricky. For instance, A1 had more people off work and school in the first week because it opened closer to Christmas.

 

A2 so far is having great legs for a huge blockbuster, no doubt, but it is not having A1 legs. Both had similar 3rd weekends despite A2 opening much higher. It is that bigger opening which A2 has been benefiting from the first two weeks. However, A1 has pretty much caught up with it now (day-to-day) and i might be wrong but i highly doubt A2 will be able to keep pace.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Elessar

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Jiffy]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Whew we love an upward trend.

[MikeQ]

3 minutes ago, mike&night said:

 

 

Thanks Mike!

Is the calendar configuration once the holidays are over accurate? I mean nobody expected TWOW to do +$67M last weekend either, all the estimates I saw were in the high 40s to mid 50s. I guess we'll see. It's fun learning with you guys.

 

That’s very true. The beauty of following the box office is that there are films that will defy expectations in different ways, so who knows. I could be wrong.

 

That said, the calendar configuration for the first week in January does tend to matter. Because of this year’s calendar, there are more folks off this week than in other years where Christmas and New Years fall earlier in their respective weeks and folks took more of their time off in December. More kids/students are still off school this week compared to some other years (e.g. here in Canada they don’t return until Monday), which contributes to this. 
 

Peace,

Mike

[Jiffy]

And yes Avatar had once-in-a-generation legs so there should be no expectation the sequel would be able to keep pace with its weekend runs from here on out.

[JustLurking]

Nice bump. Solid hold considering this being Canada heavy should make the tue-wed fall harsher. 6.75-7 thu would be nice.

Edited January 5, 2023 by JustLurking

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

$1m more than top gun maverick

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

The question now is, did he round the number right? 😂

[Elessar]

Canada came to the rescue once again.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Jiffy said:

And yes Avatar had once-in-a-generation legs so there should be no expectation the sequel would be able to keep pace with its weekend runs from here on out.

this is a new generation and this is the first in four one in a generation runs for this generation