Jump to content

charlie Jatinder

Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts







M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, YM! said:

If Puss follows Sing, it’ll be at a 13.2M weekend, actually increasing from its OW on the third weekend and a drop of 21.5% from the second with an 87.8M total.
 

Forget Sing or Chipwrecked, it’s having TGS esque legs. If the momentum continues, I can see 150m+.

Its been running at roughly ~35% of Jumanji WTJ since the opening, which would project out to ~$140M total. But with there being literally ZERO family competition until Quantamania, could see it legging out even better - see previously: Bad Guys, Super Pets, Lyle - and pushing for $150M

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its been running at roughly ~35% of Jumanji WTJ since the opening, which would project out to ~$140M total. But with there being literally ZERO family competition until Quantamania, could see it legging out even better - see previously: Bad Guys, Super Pets, Lyle - and pushing for $150M

I’m thinking the same for Illumination’s Migration come next year. A bigger OW than Puss but smaller than Sing 2, so like $18m OW/$35m six day/$170m total. The Christmas slot is very lucrative for animation.

 

Spies in Disguise suffered mainly from Disney but still had strong legs. Ferdinand would’ve done 100m if it didn’t open against Jedi.

Edited by YM!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I am emotionally confused reading through the thread as I am not sure if I should cheer up or meltdown. 

Charlie's number, if it comes to pass, is a good sign as it's in the top 5 biggest third Wednesdays ever. And it's the only one on that list not propped up by a holiday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I am emotionally confused reading through the thread as I am not sure if I should cheer up or meltdown. 

Neither, at least for Avatwo: last two days (Tue & Wed) have been right in line with 2017 daily pattern (and today should be -10% from Wed)

 

Just waiting to see if it can outrun the trendline over the weekend and push above the $37-$38M those daily numbers suggest as expected 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


mike&night Rumored Project

mike&night

Posted
Posted

New (ex-lurker) here. Just want to come by and thank everyone for the rollercoaster of emotions. Excited to keep having meltdowns and exhilarating days throughout the next couple of weeks. 

 

So, since you guys are great forecasters, how come nobody is projecting a "similar" 4th weekend to Avatar considering TWOW has been outperforming it for almost every single day? Weekends 2 & 3 came a little lower than Avatar, but that's because xmas eve and NY eve falling on a Saturday right? 

 

So far it has managed to outpace Avatar almost every day since release except for holidays (falling on different days of the week). During it's first 10 days it managed to outpace Avatar by +$48M, and it has added an extra +$42M the last 10 days. It is currently outpacing Avatar by +$90M and that advantage has kept growing daily. Why does no one contemplate that TWOW could come close to Avatar's $50M 4th weekend. Am I missing something? 

 

 

Day TWOW To Date Avatar To Date Daily gain/loss daily % diff Cumulative gain/loss
1 $53,200,270 $53,200,270 $26,752,099 $26,752,099 $26,448,171 98.86% $26,448,171
2 $44,327,887 $97,528,157 $25,529,036 $52,281,135 $18,798,851 73.64% $45,247,022
3 $36,572,069 $134,100,226 $24,744,346 $77,025,481 $11,827,723 47.80% $57,074,745
4 $16,257,078 $150,357,304 $16,385,820 $93,411,301 -$128,742 -0.79% $56,946,003
5 $18,288,904 $168,646,208 $16,086,461 $109,497,762 $2,202,443 13.69% $59,148,446
6 $14,403,438 $183,049,646 $16,445,291 $125,943,053 -$2,041,853 -12.42% $57,106,593
7 $14,632,040 $197,681,686 $11,150,998 $137,094,051 $3,481,042 31.22% $60,587,635
8 $19,289,141 $216,970,827 $23,095,046 $160,189,097 -$3,805,905 -16.48% $56,781,730
9 $14,869,288 $231,840,115 $28,274,406 $188,463,503 -$13,405,118 -47.41% $43,376,612
10 $29,179,791 $261,019,906 $24,247,681 $212,711,184 $4,932,110 20.34% $48,308,722
11 $32,270,430 $293,290,336 $19,418,139 $232,129,323 $12,852,291 66.19% $61,161,013
12 $24,128,503 $317,418,839 $18,290,628 $250,419,951 $5,837,875 31.92% $66,998,888
13 $20,582,014 $338,000,853 $18,466,123 $268,886,074 $2,115,891 11.46% $69,114,779
14 $20,117,061 $358,117,914 $14,738,136 $283,624,210 $5,378,925 36.50% $74,493,704
15 $24,836,835 $382,954,749 $25,274,008 $308,898,218 -$437,173 -1.73% $74,056,531
16 $18,053,159 $401,007,908 $25,835,551 $334,733,769 -$7,782,392 -30.12% $66,274,139
17 $24,519,161 $425,527,069 $17,381,129 $352,114,898 $7,138,032 41.07% $73,412,171
18 $21,411,622 $446,938,691 $8,094,554 $360,209,452 $13,317,068 164.52% $86,729,239
19 $10,544,729 $457,483,420 $7,327,233 $367,536,685 $3,217,496 43.91% $89,946,735
20 $7,250,000 $464,733,420 $6,909,167 $374,445,852 $340,833 4.93% $90,287,568

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Mr Roark Sleeper Hit

Mr Roark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, M37 said:

Neither, at least for Avatwo: last two days (Tue & Wed) have been right in line with 2017 daily pattern (and today should be -10% from Wed)

 

Just waiting to see if it can outrun the trendline over the weekend and push above the $37-$38M those daily numbers suggest as expected 

Charlie projects a $40/42M weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Agafin Sleeper Hit

Agafin

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

As far as I can tell, these are the best 3rd wknd/OW for 3500+ openers. Give me a shout if you find anything better than the worst listed here:

JWTTJ 103% (3765 OW TC the widest to have 2nd and 3rd above)

NatM:SotT 85%

Alvin: Road Chip 84.5%

CRA 83%

Night at the Museum 78%

Puss1 72.5%

What the hell is JWTTJ? Or CRA for that matter?

Link to comment
Share on other sites




M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Charlie projects a $40/42M weekend.

 

Quite possible, but would be above the 2017 pattern (which had Hidden Figures expand and Underworld open)
 

Wed & Thur to weekend multiplers for this weekend:

Rogue One = 5.21 / 5.67

Passengers = 5.04 / 5.58

Fences = 5.08 / 5.85

Why Him = 5.16 / 5.69 

Sing = 5.74 / 6.57

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, mike&night said:

New (ex-lurker) here. Just want to come by and thank everyone for the rollercoaster of emotions. Excited to keep having meltdowns and exhilarating days throughout the next couple of weeks. 

 

So, since you guys are great forecasters, how come nobody is projecting a "similar" 4th weekend to Avatar considering TWOW has been outperforming it for almost every single day? Weekends 2 & 3 came a little lower than Avatar, but that's because xmas eve and NY eve falling on a Saturday right? 

 

So far it has managed to outpace Avatar almost every day since release except for holidays (falling on different days of the week). During it's first 10 days it managed to outpace Avatar by +$48M, and it has added an extra +$42M the last 10 days. It is currently outpacing Avatar by +$90M and that advantage has kept growing daily. Why does no one contemplate that TWOW could come close to Avatar's $50M 4th weekend. Am I missing something? 

 

 

 

 

Day TWOW To Date Avatar To Date Daily gain/loss daily % diff Cumulative gain/loss
1 $53,200,270 $53,200,270 $26,752,099 $26,752,099 $26,448,171 98.86% $26,448,171
2 $44,327,887 $97,528,157 $25,529,036 $52,281,135 $18,798,851 73.64% $45,247,022
3 $36,572,069 $134,100,226 $24,744,346 $77,025,481 $11,827,723 47.80% $57,074,745
4 $16,257,078 $150,357,304 $16,385,820 $93,411,301 -$128,742 -0.79% $56,946,003
5 $18,288,904 $168,646,208 $16,086,461 $109,497,762 $2,202,443 13.69% $59,148,446
6 $14,403,438 $183,049,646 $16,445,291 $125,943,053 -$2,041,853 -12.42% $57,106,593
7 $14,632,040 $197,681,686 $11,150,998 $137,094,051 $3,481,042 31.22% $60,587,635
8 $19,289,141 $216,970,827 $23,095,046 $160,189,097 -$3,805,905 -16.48% $56,781,730
9 $14,869,288 $231,840,115 $28,274,406 $188,463,503 -$13,405,118 -47.41% $43,376,612
10 $29,179,791 $261,019,906 $24,247,681 $212,711,184 $4,932,110 20.34% $48,308,722
11 $32,270,430 $293,290,336 $19,418,139 $232,129,323 $12,852,291 66.19% $61,161,013
12 $24,128,503 $317,418,839 $18,290,628 $250,419,951 $5,837,875 31.92% $66,998,888
13 $20,582,014 $338,000,853 $18,466,123 $268,886,074 $2,115,891 11.46% $69,114,779
14 $20,117,061 $358,117,914 $14,738,136 $283,624,210 $5,378,925 36.50% $74,493,704
15 $24,836,835 $382,954,749 $25,274,008 $308,898,218 -$437,173 -1.73% $74,056,531
16 $18,053,159 $401,007,908 $25,835,551 $334,733,769 -$7,782,392 -30.12% $66,274,139
17 $24,519,161 $425,527,069 $17,381,129 $352,114,898 $7,138,032 41.07% $73,412,171
18 $21,411,622 $446,938,691 $8,094,554 $360,209,452 $13,317,068 164.52% $86,729,239
19 $10,544,729 $457,483,420 $7,327,233 $367,536,685 $3,217,496 43.91% $89,946,735
20 $7,250,000 $464,733,420 $6,909,167 $374,445,852 $340,833 4.93% $90,287,568

 


With the different calendar configuration, I don’t expect Way of Water to jump anywhere close to the nearly 120% the original Avatar did. Friday jump will be more muted than that, IMO. :)
 

This is supported by the Friday jumps we saw in 2017 with the same calendar configuration as this year:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2017-01-06/?ref_=bo_rl_table_22

 

Peace,

Mike

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept