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charlie Jatinder

Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

Should have done that before I asked. Bold, dude.

 

What was your prediction for last weekend, and how did that turn out?

$63m initially, then i let the doomer posting get to my head, went down to $58m. So it went terribly.

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stephanos13 Box Office Gold

stephanos13

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

$63m initially, then i let the doomer posting get to my head, went down to $58m. So it went terribly.

 

You know you are the most optimist regarding to Avatar right? even if it did 70M for the weekend (random number) you would still win because no one would have a higher prediction. 😄 🤪

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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

What does 1.65M of 2003 regular format ticket sales translate to in 2022 with PLF premiums? Is it 1/4 the admissions?

 

Avatar 2's third Thursday should be around double the admissions of RotK's third Thursday, so not as big of a discrepancy as the raw numbers suggest but still significant enough to expect the potential for a naturally lower multiplier with all other things evened out.

 

48 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Unless we're counting the opening weekend (ROTK opened on a Wednesday), ROTK's third Thursday was on Jan. 8. It was also during the first week after the holidays, like A2, as New Years landed on the previous Friday instead of Sunday (for A2).

 

Incidentally, can we quantify how much the distance from the holidays affects the Thu multiplier? It seems like Charlie gave us a sense of where the inflation was coming from: Canada--which I already mentioned.

 

Ah yeah, forgot RotK opened on a Wednesday — I'll ignore the first two days and keep referring to the days as if it opened on the Friday.

 

New Year's Day (end of the holidays) was on RotK's second Thursday rather than its second Friday, which was 3 days earlier than Avatar 2's New Year's Day on the Sunday and 4 days earlier than the real end of the holidays for Avatar 2 due to the observed NYD on Avatar 2's third Monday.

 

I think it's pretty self-evident that the end of the holidays (typically New Year's Day) falling at the beginning of the week results in a significant amount of people talking the subsequent days or even the entire week off as compared to when New Year's Day falls in the middle/end of the week (Thursday, Friday) and people have a few days/the weekend to recover before a full return to normality the next Monday; Avatar 2's calendar configuration is an example of the former, RotK's is an example the latter.

 

In terms of its effect on the box office, I haven't done any actual number-crunching on this as I'm lazy, but just a quick glance at the Thursday-to-Friday increases on January 9, 2015 (RotK-equivalent calendar) compared to January 6, 2017 (Avatar 2-equivalent calendar) shows you how much of an effect this has on the Thursday-to-Friday increases for the two configurations.

 

The problem with splitting the difference between Rogue One and RotK is that RotK is obviously heavily flawed due to the calendar differences and, to a lesser extent, the admissions differences, but Rogue One is nowhere near flawed enough in the other direction to balance it out to a reasonable result. For Rogue One, the calendar configuration is obviously the same, so the only real difference is the level of hold you're expecting for Avatar 2 compared to Rogue One, and that's not nearly as much of a flaw as the significant calendar issues for RotK.

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Flamengo81 Sleeper Hit

Flamengo81

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Flopped said:

News of A2 been the #1 movie of the year will only attract more people who were on the fence. 

Agreed. My mom just like 1h ago said to me she saw that Avatar entered the top 10 of highest grossing movies ever and said she is going to the see it next weekend with my stepfather. She was always interested in seen it, but after she saw it made her make a decision to see it next week. I think the headlines are going to be an important factor in keeping the legs throught the rest of the run...

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LinksterAC Sleeper Hit

LinksterAC

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Avatar 2's third Thursday should be around double the admissions of RotK's third Thursday, so not as big of a discrepancy as the raw numbers suggest but still significant enough to expect the potential for a naturally lower multiplier with all other things evened out.

 

 

Ah yeah, forgot RotK opened on a Wednesday — I'll ignore the first two days and keep referring to the days as if it opened on the Friday.

 

New Year's Day (end of the holidays) was on RotK's second Thursday rather than its second Friday, which was 3 days earlier than Avatar 2's New Year's Day on the Sunday and 4 days earlier than the real end of the holidays for Avatar 2 due to the observed NYD on Avatar 2's third Monday.

 

I think it's pretty self-evident that the end of the holidays (typically New Year's Day) falling at the beginning of the week results in a significant amount of people talking the subsequent days or even the entire week off as compared to when New Year's Day falls in the middle/end of the week (Thursday, Friday) and people have a few days/the weekend to recover before a full return to normality the next Monday; Avatar 2's calendar configuration is an example of the former, RotK's is an example the latter.

 

In terms of its effect on the box office, I haven't done any actual number-crunching on this as I'm lazy, but just a quick glance at the Thursday-to-Friday increases on January 9, 2015 (RotK-equivalent calendar) compared to January 6, 2017 (Avatar 2-equivalent calendar) shows you how much of an effect this has on the Thursday-to-Friday increases for the two configurations.

 

The problem with splitting the difference between Rogue One and RotK is that RotK is obviously heavily flawed due to the calendar differences and, to a lesser extent, the admissions differences, but Rogue One is nowhere near flawed enough in the other direction to balance it out to a reasonable result. For Rogue One, the calendar configuration is obviously the same, so the only real difference is the level of hold you're expecting for Avatar 2 compared to Rogue One, and that's not nearly as much of a flaw as the significant calendar issues for RotK.

My bad, ROTK NYD was Thursday, not Friday. Thanks for pointing that out. And, yeah, I think 2X is probably a fair comparison between ROTK midweek traffic & A2. With RO being roughly halfway in between the two.

 

That said, I don’t think that it’s self-evident that a holiday being observed at the beginning of the work week results in a significant amount of people taking the subsequent days or entire week off. It’s certainly not evident from RO’s run, which had a strong Monday, but then dropped the way you might expect coming out of the holidays. (Mid 70s w2w). And remember that per Asgard, the geographical area that’s over-indexing is Canada, where this is still a true week off.

 

Also, I think there is more than one “real difference” between A2 & RO. Specifically, a runtime that’s an hour longer. Which has a bearing on mid-week showtimes as the LOTR films showed us long ago—which is a large part of the reason I thought they were worth looking at in the first place.

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LinksterAC Sleeper Hit

LinksterAC

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Agreed. My mom just like 1h ago said to me she saw that Avatar entered the top 10 of highest grossing movies ever and said she is going to the see it next weekend with my stepfather. She was always interested in seen it, but after she saw it made her make a decision to see it next week. I think the headlines are going to be an important factor in keeping the legs throught the rest of the run...

My mom just texted me asking when we’re going to go see it.

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LinksterAC Sleeper Hit

LinksterAC

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

are the tv news channels reporting on it or something?

I don’t know. Possibly.

 

I do think there’s another possibility:

 

This movie appeals to demographic groups that are underrepresented on social media & don’t rush to go see films when they release.

 

I’m pretty sure my mother’s known about this movie being released for weeks. But like my MIL, it was 2+ weeks before they talked about going to see it. I remember the same thing happened with A1 in 2009.

 

Edit:

 

I stress this a theory & that we shouldn’t get caught up in my anecdata.

Edited by LinksterAC
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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
Just now, LinksterAC said:

I don’t know. Possibly.

 

I do think there’s another possibility:

 

This movie appeals to demographic groups that are underrepresented on social media & don’t rush to go see films when they release.

 

I’m pretty sure my mother’s known about this movie being released for weeks. But like my MIL, it was 2+ weeks before they talked about going to see it. I remember the same thing happened with A1 in 2009.

I've been pushing the internet echo chamber narrative for 10 years now, that's a thumbs up from me

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