M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[filmlover]

The top 3 alone making nearly $90M is such a wonderful way to start this new year.

[kayumanggi]

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Moviedweeb said:

A2's performance is off-planet.

 

We've seen films come out the gate with massive openings and have somewhat impressive legs to generate massive totals.

 

We've seen films that have opened modestly and the developed amazing legs that got them to astronomical grosses relative to expectations.

 

I can't point to another film that opened "modestly," didn't exactly wow on its follow up weekend and then just came back with a complete vengeance to shatter all expectations. 

 

It's...Insane....

 

I mean.. this really seems to have at least $500m WW left in the tank to secure #3 of all-time globally which is just pretty incredible. At least $150m domestic and $350m internationally seems achievable, right?

Its just had a 132mil none holiday international weekend, i'd say at least 400mil left in the international tank, if not 500mil.

Domestic i'd say 150-250mil.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That said, would be nice to just discuss the numbers without a "which was more impressive" debate for once lol.

Thanks, this this this. 

 

Pretty much every week the discussion ended up in this subject, if not on weekend thread on the weekdays or the OS thread. 

 

And honestly who cares if EG is bigger? It just screams empty stan war to me, from everyone involved.

[kayumanggi]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Hopefully PIB can still surpass 300M despite the ridiculous 14-day theatrical window. 

 

It seems good for 130-140M DOM so far, amazing after that tepid OW.

[marveldcfox]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Megan definitely took a bite out of it. Would have done 50+.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Hopefully PIB can still surpass 300M despite the ridiculous 14-day theatrical window. 

 

It seems good for 130-140M DOM so far, amazing after that tepid OW.

I wonder if the 14day window was already in place before release, or they paniced after the OW.

[XXR vs XXR]

Moderation 

 

No more fanboy nonsense. Avatar, Avatar 2 and Endgame are all great runs and should be appreciated as such. We aren't going to start devolving threads into pointless pissing contests. 

 

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Agreed, sadly this is the type of sitation we'll be debating forever how it could've been. The same goes for MCU without China in the past movies.

 

I would like to see some Avatar in it's full potential, which didn't happen with A2. 

 

A3 and A4 will probably drop on grosses (not by very much like some people expect, but still a drop). But i'm hoping Cameron plan is strong enough so we can see a climax hype for A5, maybe with this one we can see a run similar to what A2 could've been in a better situation.

One thing to remember is that 2009 was almost ideal for A1. Peak globalization in terms of the general economy, slow economy (thus, increased moviegoing), & absolutely killer FOREX in dollar terms. (The Forex thing totally bothers me when comparing WW runs for films, because it really can give a film a 20% boost over another for no reason other than an accounting decisions).

 

All that said, A2 is having a phenomenal, leggy run & because of that, I’m not convinced A3 & A4 will perform worse. In many ways, the public is reacquainting with this franchise after a 13 year absence, & I think that could lower the ceiling on this run. But it’s being very well received & will act as recent advertising for A3 in a couple years. Do you remember what happened with the LOTR movies?

[M37]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

No, we don’t don’t know that behavior has permanently changed in a way that’s detrimental to any given movie.

We don't "know", but there is now 18+ months of data showing weakness in the market, and not really much evidence of it snapping back over the last year

 

9 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

By your reasoning, TGM & NWH should have had even bigger runs, & frankly, I don’t see solid ground for that argument.

 

IOW, people being more used to streaming in general doesn’t mean that Movie A would have done better in 2019 than in 2022. In fact, on the contrary, it seems like the biggest blockbusters are just as big (if not bigger) than ever.

 

I think the most accurate assessment is that the bar for being willing to spend on theatrical has been raised by the behavior shift, and at a top level, can still mostly meet pre-pandemic levels .... with like 25% higher ATP so 25% less audience, but similar $ value

 

But below that top line, particularly for animation, drama/awards & even generic action, they are nowhere near the level of pre-pandemic. There's too much similar content available to make it worth the investment of time and money

[Flopped]

OMGGGGGGGGGG AVATAR2 did 134M internationally this weekend???????????????????????????

 

WTF

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, setna said:

If continues dropping an average of 30% weelly WW that will take over 450 M more, not enough to pass Titanic so it still needs some more epic drops from now...

 

I think there's a 50-50 chance. We'll see. The performance is great either way.

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Xavier said:

What would you call DS2 and Thor 4?

DS2 is a victim of casualties. 

 

It's perceived as a big disappointment because it dropped right after NWH and it was supposed to be an even bigger event. But originally, DS2 would drop first, so things would be different in this regard, it could even had a bit better legs if they didn't switch.

 

Not making a billion is also a strong topic of discussion, but it would surpass 1.1B if China didn't banned MCU movies. 

 

Thor 4 is just awful and i think it would be perceived as a failure no matter what.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Flopped said:

OMGGGGGGGGGG AVATAR2 did 134M internationally this weekend???????????????????????????

 

WTF

It's happening guys.

1. Avatar

2. Endgame

3. Avatar 2

4. Titanic

5. The Force Awakens

 

I'm looking forward to Avatar 3, when it removes TFA from the list and we can say:
Four of the five top highest grossing films of all time belong to James Cameron

Edited January 8, 2023 by IronJimbo

[wildphantom]

24 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

This is def going to finsih with a similar 74/26 split between domestic and international, just like the first film.

 

Its crazy really because all the shit i got for my 2.5bil total prediction, especially after the OW, and i wouldnt be surprised if it ends up right at that point. All with a massively reduced China too.

Crazy.

I wouldn’t say you took that much shit. The vast majority of the forum were very supportive of you and Jimbo, even if we were sceptical and were just waiting to see how it played out.
 

Delighted it’s all worked out for you and the film has turned into the phenomenon you’d hoped it would. 

[Torontofan]

Even if avatar 3 does less elsewhere china gross will make up for it.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Hopefully PIB can still surpass 300M despite the ridiculous 14-day theatrical window. 

 

It seems good for 130-140M DOM so far, amazing after that tepid OW.

 

I'm positive it will.

[kayumanggi]

 

[stuart360]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

It's happening guys.

1. Avatar

2. Endgame

3. Avatar 2

4. Titanic

5. The Force Awakens

 

I'm looking forward to Avatar 3.

Four of the top highest grossing films of all time belong to James Cameron

I mean its pretty much locked for 3rd place. After a near 180mil global weekend, no way it misses out on the 500mil it needs for 3rd place.

 

Sorry none loonies.😎