M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

55 minutes ago, M37 said:

That’s not the relevant dynamic though. People aren’t skipping theaters because of fear of COVID, but that the necessary response to the pandemic - staying at home - changed people’s behavior to some degree permanently (IMO, accelerating a shift that was coming in 5-10 years anyway). They got used to streaming, and now the time and cost commitment of theaters is less attractive 

 

 

Some people gave up on moviegoing altogether and I think the shortened windows have cut into repeat viewings, which also affects box office in a way.  Not that there are no repeat viewers, but maybe less than before? Because you know it's going to show up on Disney+ or HBO Max or wherever in a couple of months. That affects some types of movies more than others.

 

Family movies aren't back to where they were, awards bait has been decimated,  and further down the Top 50, Top 100 domestic yearly chart, the totals have fallen off a cliff compared to their pre-pandemic levels. Even this weekend that's so much bigger than expected, not every Top 10 title cleared $1 million (a regular occurrence these days). This weekend 10 years ago, every single movie in the Top 10 had made at least $4 million and the entire Top 20 was over $1 million each. Just flashing back to this weekend in January 2020, you have to get to 15th place before a movie doesn’t cross the $1 million mark.

 

If you only focus on the top of the charts, it's easy to think everything is back to "normal" but it's really not. The Top 3 doing well is better than nothing, granted.

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[LinksterAC]

12 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

That list is extremely out of date. ATP in 2022 is about 18-20% higher than in 2019. 

 

Thanks, friends!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Welp. I'm officially on the "Over JW DOM" train. No one tell Brainbug. 

 

 

I mean… you realize how hard it would have to implode at this point to miss that mark now… 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Welp. I'm officially on the "Over JW DOM" train. No one tell Brainbug. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, Moviedweeb said:

A2's performance is off-planet.

 

We've seen films come out the gate with massive openings and have somewhat impressive legs to generate massive totals.

 

We've seen films that have opened modestly and the developed amazing legs that got them to astronomical grosses relative to expectations.

 

I can't point to another film that opened "modestly," didn't exactly wow on its follow up weekend and then just came back with a complete vengeance to shatter all expectations. 

 

It's...Insane....

 

I mean.. this really seems to have at least $500m WW left in the tank to secure #3 of all-time globally which is just pretty incredible. At least $150m domestic and $350m internationally seems achievable, right?

 

Ummm, I take it you haven't followed box office much...

 

Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle had its 4th weekend (which happened to be this exact one) outgross its 1st one...

 

(Yes, they did declare their opening early sneaks as their own weekend:)...

Edited January 8, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Godzilla]

I want M3GAN to cross $100M DOM. 

[fmpro]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER (overseas weekends)

 

$300.5M / 1st weekend

$176.6M / 2nd weekend

$185.5M / 3rd weekend

$132.6M / 4th weekend

O/U 100 mill next weekend??

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

That list is extremely out of date. ATP in 2022 is about 18-20% higher than in 2019. 

 

 

And ATP for Avatar 2 is even higher than that increase thanks to the enormous PLF skew...

[Elessar]

29 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

That depends on how you define bigger in terms of blockbusters, money or admissions.

 

Personally, I like to use money. Afterall you could sell 1 billion tickets at $0.01 but what would be the point in that?

 

Who opened that can of worms, anyway?

 

Sure, EG might be bigger in terms of admissions because it sold a lot of cheap(-er) tickets in some big developing markets with billions of people. I'm sure there are also some obscure Chinese movies that sold hundreds of millions of tickets. But to come here and argue that EG's run was at least as impressive as A1's? Sorry, you would be absolutely wrong. I mean, just look at what the top-lifetime-grosses list looked like in 2009 and compare that to 2019 or today. The only films on that list in the top 30 that were released prior to 2010 are Avatar and ROTK. Yes, it is absolutely easer to make big bucks today than 13 years ago because the market expanded.

 

As for A2, without Covid (mainly China) and the war (Russia / Ukrain), it would have grossed about the same as EG.

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean… you realize how hard it would have to implode at this point to miss that mark now… 

<4x this weekend is hardly what I'll call implosion, but I get your point. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Ummm, I take it you haven't followed box office much...

 

Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle had its 4th weekend (which happened to be this exact one) outgross its 1st one...

 

(Yes, they did declare their opening early sneaks as their own weekend:)...

It’s not quite “unprecedented” what it’s doing right now, but it almost is. The only thing stopping it from being that is… A1, which did ever so slightly more impressive than what this is doing (although really not even when you look at the grosses for the week not just the weekend). 

[XXR vs XXR]

46 minutes ago, Moviedweeb said:

mean.. this really seems to have at least $500m WW left in the tank to secure #3 of all-time globally which is just pretty incredible. At least $150m domestic and $350m internationally seems achievable, right?

 

Definitely achievable. Probably looking at 675-725 DOM + 1500-1600M OS.  

[CaptNathanBrittles]

The first AVATAR's 6th international weekend was $107m, a 14% decrease from its 5th.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, fmpro said:

O/U 100 mill next weekend??

Its 50/50 for me. I'd say 90-100mil.

100+ is def in play though.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

I want M3GAN to cross $100M DOM. 

Beating Nope ($123M) isn’t out of the question if it WOM/legs out close to Smile 

 

I’d probably take the under, but not by much, $110-$120

[Cheddar Please]

Imagine the reaction if this films final ends up being between 700-717m DOM lol

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

<4x this weekend is hardly what I'll call implosion, but I get your point. 

Its 3 times this weekend.

JW is at 653mil.

Edited January 8, 2023 by stuart360

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

$100m 5th weekend possible with 25% drop.

 

I do not see that happening, but we'll see.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

<4x this weekend is hardly what I'll call implosion, but I get your point. 

It has a 4 day holiday weekend to guarantee another strong hold next weeknd, off of a near record breaking 4th weekend number. So yes, it would have to completely implode following next weekend to miss JW DOM. It will likely be within 75m or less by then. 

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Quote

$100m 5th weekend possible with 25% drop.

I do not see that happening, but we'll see.

Even if it had identical weekdays to A1's 3rd weekday frame that would only get it to 70m, just over TGM's 69m

Edit: My bad, I thought we were talking about Domestic weekly frame lol

Edited January 8, 2023 by Cheddar Please