M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[M37]

Someone will have to explain to me why Mario is demonstrably different than Sonic/Sonic 2 and Det Pikachu 

 

I know animated vs live action, but I think there is also an underestimation of how much easier of sell Minions (or even Pets) are to younger kids worldwide than video game characters they may not even know 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Uh...what japan numbers are you expecting from Mario, exactly?

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

[lilmac]

Mario has wider appeal than Sonic and Pokemon, especially when taking into account the older audience. It's just a bigger audience. I see $300-400m domestic if the film is at least 70% RT score equivalent in quality.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Uh...what japan numbers are you expecting from Mario, exactly?

 

¥4-7B.

 

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

 

It won't get anywhere close to the all-time record in Japan. Demon Slayer is untouchable. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, lilmac said:

Mario has wider appeal than Sonic and Pokemon, especially when taking into account the older audience. It's just a bigger audience. I see $300-400m domestic if the film is at least 70% RT score equivalent in quality.

 

Mario games, and thats because some of his games are among the greatest to have ever been made, Mario the character is still unproven me thinks

[JustLurking]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

Ok. You should probably lower them. Historically Japan doesn't care for hollywood adaptations of their properties. Even 50M will be a challenge in jp.

 

Also, the Japan record is the strongest single-market performance in the world, and is unlikely to ever be broken, let alone by Mario.

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, JustLurking said:

Also, the Japan record is the strongest single-market performance in the world, and is unlikely to ever be broken, let alone by Mario.

 

how do I educate myself on how impressive KNY's japan run was?

what would be the #2 strongest single market performance?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

 

Are you using the "Ghost in the Shell will be massive in Japan!" logic?

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how do I educate myself on how impressive KNY's japan run was?

what would be the #2 strongest single market performance?

It broke the 17-year old OW record by over 1b yen (satsun only, and the old record was from when previews were included), then dropped 9% on its 2nd weekend breaking it again, then dropped 18% on its third breaking it again. It ended up beating the all-time 19-year old standing record by 30%.

 

It holds something like the 8 biggest days in Japan. If you want a more detailed explanation, go to worldofkj's Japan thread (Corpse is the authority on Japan BO in the west), or even this thread here which reposted a lot of her posts.

Edited January 8, 2023 by JustLurking

[MovieMan89]

I can tell you the only way Mario isn’t huge in Japan is if they truly are done with all Hollywood films, no exceptions. 

[M37]

Just now, lilmac said:

Mario has wider appeal than Sonic and Pokemon, especially when taking into account the older audience. It's just a bigger audience. I see $300-400m domestic if the film is at least 70% RT score equivalent in quality.

… or it has more appeal among the older audience and about the same level of family/GA appeal as those I mentioned that will really determine how high it can go 

 

Just not getting the sense that kids are parents are as juiced for it some members of an internet box office forum 

 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

 

Impossible. Demon Slayer Mugen Train wont probably be ever be topped in Japan.

[Godzilla]

I don't think Mario will be a billion dollar movie or close to it. Right now I'm saying $600M WW.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how do I educate myself on how impressive KNY's japan run was?

Start reading from this page and you'll learn all you want to know about it. 
 

 

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

what would be the #2 strongest single market performance?

 

2nd strongest? Huh. Hard to say. Probably Baahubali 2. 

[poweranimals]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Someone will have to explain to me why Mario is demonstrably different than Sonic/Sonic 2 and Det Pikachu 

 

I know animated vs live action, but I think there is also an underestimation of how much easier of sell Minions (or even Pets) are to younger kids worldwide than video game characters they may not even know 

 

 

First of all, Mario is more popular than Sonic or Pikachu. Secondly, those movies aren't even all that faithful to the games. Sonic is in the real world with regular people which I know turned some people off and I can't really speak much about Pokemon but Detective Pikachu wasn't really similar to the games at all. At least none that were popular.

 

Mario on the other hand appears to be focusing on the world of the games and based on the trailers seems to be hitting all the right notes. Also, Mario has a lot of appeal amongst kids and adults so it should definitely be bigger than the other two expamples, imo.

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

Someone will have to explain to me why Mario is demonstrably different than Sonic/Sonic 2 and Det Pikachu 

 

I know animated vs live action, but I think there is also an underestimation of how much easier of sell Minions (or even Pets) are to younger kids worldwide than video game characters they may not even know 

 

 

 

Mario will bring the Gentleminions...which will be all over Tik Tok and social media for 5-12 year olds to then get amped and to go see the movie...

 

Mario is animated.  Det Pickahu and Sonic are mostly live action...

 

Mario is Illumination.  Do not doubt Illumination - they are this generation's Pixar.

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can tell you the only way Mario isn’t huge in Japan is if they truly are done with all Hollywood films, no exceptions. 

Statistically speaking, there is absolutely nothing that supports your claim that the Mario film has to be huge in Japan. Hollywood has never made one single adaptation of a JP property that was popular in Japan, ever.

 

Besides, anyone who actually follows the JP market would tell you to never make assumptions that something will be huge in Japan. It's probably the most random market there is.

Edited January 8, 2023 by JustLurking

[Brainbug]

My take on Marios potential:

 

I dont think you can compare it to Det Pikachu or Sonic. Those are live-action movies that feature the characters. Mario is a purely animated movie much more in line with something like the Minions, especially since its from Illumination.

What cant be underestimated is the cross-generation appeal of Mario. He is one of the best known characters in all of fiction/entertainment and that is no exaggeration. Everyone knows Mario, even if they never played the games. The trailers make it look like something kids will definetly enjoy, while many adults in the up to 40y years+ range will come for the nostalgia aspects.

 

So yeah it has a lot going for it, so much so that i would predict 300M+ DOM for it and 400M+ OS. 1 Billion i dont think it will get there, but it would not shock me to be honest. Like with all movies though, reception and WOM will be key.

[jedijake]

We knew Ava2 would be a monster and have decent holds after that Christmas week. What really pleasantly surprises me is how well BPWF has held up. Over $3 million three weekends AND weekdays in a row! Probably will end up around $455 million after all and maybe higher.

[lab276]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

A Texas Chainsaw movie in 3D couldn't match the illustrious heights of The Devil Inside the year before-talk about a one weekend wonder...

 

That’s what I mean, what on earth was I thinking being disappointed at the time? The first couple months of 2013 were pretty weak though, it didn’t get interesting until summer.