M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR's drops from weekend 6 to 10.

 

6th weekend: -18.3% / $34.9M

7th weekend: -10.5% / $31.3M

8th weekend: -26.9% / $22.9M

9th weekend: +3.3% / $23.6M

10th weekend: -31.2% / $16.2M

 

total after the 10th weekend: $688M

 

NO WAY HOME's drops from weekend 6 to 10

 

6th weekend: -30.3% / $14.0M

7th weekend: -21.4% / $11.0M

8th weekend: -13.6% / $9.5M

9th weekend: -20.9% / $7.5M

10th weekend: -0.8% / $7.5M

 

total after the 10th weekend: $770M

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Sophia Jane]

27 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Guys,I’m think about beating TGM is almost locked at this point

We need to comp with Spiderman:NWH ,NWH doing 140m total after its 4th WE,Avatar box office is around 516m for now,that’s  a 200m way to TGM,we need 1.4 ✖️ NWH left to beating it,

Then I do some math thing,No way home doing 2.4m 4th Monday,9.55m 4th weekday and 23m fifth long 4-day weekend ,to catch that 1.4 ✖️left,we only need respectively 3.36m monday ,13.37m weekday and 32.2m fifth long weekend,I don’t think this is even the problem we need to discuss,if we follow this trend to next and next weekend(I don’t think it’s hard,Avatar and NWH’s daily gap will be bigger and bigger )we’ll see a clear way that Avatar almost locked for Beating TGM

For now we have 4.5m Mon est,Any number better than 3.5m would be great

[M37]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR's drops from weekend 6 to 10.

 

6th weekend: -18.3% / $34.9M

7th weekend: -10.5% / $31.3M

8th weekend: -26.9% / $22.9M

9th weekend: +3.3% / $23.6M

10th weekend: -31.2% / $16.2M

 

total after the 10th weekend: $688M

 

NO WAY HOME's drops from weekend 6 to 10

 

6th weekend: -30.3% / $14.0M

7th weekend: -21.4% / $11.0M

8th weekend: -13.6% / $9.5M

9th weekend: -20.9% / $7.5M

10th weekend: -0.8% / $7.5M

 

total after the 10th weekend: $770M

 

Worth nothing that weeks 6-10 are going to be off a bit by the change to the NFL schedule, in that Avatar's weeks 6-9 were Championship games/off week/Super Bowl/post-Super Bowl, while it was 7-10 for NWH. Also the 9th weekend for Avatar was President's Day & Valentine's Day, while NWH had Pres Day in week 10

[SchumacherFTW]

13 minutes ago, Bruce said:

For now we have 4.5m Mon est,Any number better than 3.5m would be great

We don't have a 4.5m estimate, shows haven't even started on the east coast yet

[Deep Wang]

22 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Where are all the "A2 will have normal blockbuster legs" people now?

 

[M37]

34 minutes ago, M37 said:

Monday should be somewhat deflated due to CFB NC (but still will give a decent idea of weekday level), Tuesdays is gonna Tuesday, so really the day I think gives the best indication of trajectory will be Wednesday

 

OG Avatar had this weekend be 9x Wed (and 11.5x for the 4-day), and while we don't yet know if we're going to see equivalent weekend/weekday splits with Avatwo (and Discount Tuesdays were not yet sucking business away from Wed into Tue) probably the best place to start. Last year NWH posted a 9x/11x (with Scream opening) and American Underdog was a 8.3x/10.4x while losing a little bit of volume, so basically same as NWH. Mon should add 25-30% more to the weekend total

 

So a $4M Wed would mean an approximate, expected ~$36M weekend, and ~$46M 4-day. Having the 4-day match the previous 3-day is what Jumanji WTTJ (nearly) pulled off, on its way to legging out and making 3.1x more of this full week's total

Following up here, these are the drops from Sat and Sun respectively to Wed from this week last year:

 

NWH = -85%  / -76%

355 = -82% / -68% (opening week)

King's Man = -78% / -64%

Amer UD = -83% / -64%

Matrix = -79% / -67%

WSS = -71% / -51%

Sing 2 = -90% / -85%

 

Tossing out the high and low gives a (not very helpful) range of $3.2 - $5.0, but enough there to suggest $4M+ is entirely possible

[Borobudur]

22 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Where are all the "A2 will have normal blockbuster legs" people now?

It is very funny people claim A2 has no cultural impact but expect the movie to leg out like a typical sequel. 

[The GOAT]

22 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Deep Wang

[stuart360]

Its going to become the 3rd biggest movie of all time WW.

To try and suggest its legs are nothing special is pretty ludicrous.

 

Its going to have 5-6 times legs off a 134mil OW domestically

5-6 times legs off a 300mil OW internationally

And 5-6 times legs off a 430mil WW opening weekend.

 

That is not common.

Edited January 9, 2023 by stuart360

[lilmac]

TWOW's legs are in between that of a typical blockbuster (BB) and Avatar/Titanic (A/T).

 

Let's say TGM is 0.8 differential of A/T (or 1.2 differential of BB)

.....then TWOW is probably 0.7 A/T

 

(totally made up math here)

 

 

But that's great since the only movies with greater than 1.0 A/T differentials are films like My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Blair Witch which are more like 1.5 A/T and 1.2 A/T respectively.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by lilmac

[efialtes76]

Rogue One weekdays(9-12):

Monday -72.6%

Tuesday +43.9%

Wednesday -31.4%

Thursday -2.1%

Edited January 9, 2023 by efialtes76

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Yea but this is only the 2nd season the playoffs will start this coming weekend. Previously it has started this past weekend. 

The changes on the NFL calendar really fucked movie theaters. Everything is truly against them.

[Factcheck]

It seems like A2 is going to do 2.3B (700M Dom, 1700M OS) at the WW Box Office. Now let's do the math to see how much money Disney and James Cameron will make from it.

Dom theatrical cut 350M

OS-China theatrical cut 592M

China cut 55M

TV revenue 200M

Ancillaries 100M

Total revenue ~1.3B

Cost:

Budget 450M

P&A 150M

Video cost 50M

Residuals & off the tops 40M

Interest 70M

Participations 250M (James Cameron fee 225M-just my guess)

Total cost ~1B

Total Disney profit 300M

JC fee 225M

[SchumacherFTW]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The changes on the NFL calendar really fucked movie theaters. Everything is truly against them.

Let's spin the wheel, are theaters alive or dead. Oooooooh! And it's INCONCLUSIVE! Better luck next time player

[Dragoncaine]

Has anyone seen @IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son lately? 😅

 

 

[LinksterAC]

2 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots. 

But zero college football games. 
 

Not sure if it’s easy to ascertain, but we may want to look at the marginal difference in the trade off. 

[upriser7]

3 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots. 

Not 4 games on Sunday...2 games on Saturday, 3 on Sunday and another one on Monday night. We have been having this Monday night playoff thing only from 2020 onwards when they expanded playoffs from 6 teams to 7 teams. This time the Monday night game will be Cowboys-Bucs which means its gonna get ridiculous ratings even on Monday night...probably 40M+ viewers for Monday night game. So all 3 Saturday, Sunday, Monday will be affected due to Playoffs next weekend.

 

Next weekend playoff schedule - 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by upriser7

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, upriser7 said:

Not 4 games on Sunday...2 games on Saturday, 3 on Sunday and another one on Monday night. We have been having this Monday night playoff thing only from 2020 onwards when they expanded playoffs from 6 teams to 7 teams. This time the Monday night game will be Cowboys-Bucs which means its gonna get ridiculous ratings even on Monday night...probably upward of 25M+ viewers for Monday night game. So all 3 Saturday, Sunday, Monday will be affected due to Playoffs next weekend

 

@CJohn is right, the NFL hates and wants to completely destroy movie theaters ☹️

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

This time the Monday night game will be Cowboys-Bucs which means its gonna get ridiculous ratings even on Monday night...probably upward of 25M+ viewers for Monday night game.

Shit. The Cowboys vs Tom Brady will probably get 40-45M. The biggest brand in sports VS the greatest NFL player ever. 

[upriser7]

It's mainly the next 2 weekends that are probably going to be significantly affected by playoffs...the weekend after that (Jan 27-29) won't be that impactful as the playoff games will only happen on Sunday that weekend unlike these upcoming next 2 weekends where you have games on both Saturday, Sunday.