Deep Wang Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I wasn't talking about the validity of legion posts, it's calling people dumb and being extremely condesending, that's the what makes me think hater. Though Deep Wang I fully expected you to miss that point with your grasp on BO post dynamics... You do realize you are calling me dumb and being extremely condescending right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 To be clear I haven’t called anyone dumb. That would be a “personal attack” which I have learned my lesson on. Just saying that certain claims/stats/framing are dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tokugennumataka Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Very big FRI jump Very low SAT jump I wouldn't say very low Sat jump. Almost all films have MLK Sat bump lower than the previous week's (for obvious reasons). Last week was +81%, so +80% this week is reasonable (borderline high end) I'd say. Edited January 13, 2023 by Tokugennumataka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nydedan Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 this "avatar being lucky to be the only december major release" thing is dumb as well. what about shazam2 and aquaman2? why did they escape and leave avatar with no competition? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I’m not an avatar hater per se (I think 1 was fine but nothing special outside visuals, haven’t seen 2 yet, from trailer and reviews it seems fine but nothing special outside visuals) but I am a silly-stat-presented-straight hater, if you’re determined to frame things that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said: No, I don’t. I am pointing out exactly that this is a dumb way to look at it. Xmas movies generally have good multiples for extremely obvious reasons. The exceptions are mega fan events like SW and MCU which still benefit from xmas to have much better legs than with a normal date, but would have had such bad legs on a normal date from frontloaded hype demand that even with xmas the total/ow is still fairly restrained. AWOW has the good fortune to be the only December movie outside of SW/MCU to open “above 100M” in dec, which drives this particular silly stat. But the “above 100M” line is completely meaningless as a cutoff since it’s heavily affected by inflation. There are lots of movies that would have opened over 100M on this date and legged over 5, but avatar happens to be the first because of inflation+not getting a lot of December’s per year+recent tendency to put the fan monsters here rather than more midrange blockbusters. I don't necessarily disagree with this, but the notion that a lot of midrange blockbusters would've opened over 100 and legged out over 5x I'm not really sure I agree with. Nor do I necessarily agree with the nominal number being "completely meaningless" since inflation does drive up the numbers but audience trends over the years drive down the admits and you can't entirely separate one from the other. Certainly it would've been done before but it wouldn't exactly be a "common stat" either even if you went back and switched the calendar around to maximise the chances of this happening. Edited January 13, 2023 by JustLurking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said: You do realize you are calling me dumb and being extremely condescending right? yes, i was giving a demonstration using legion's words... I tried to make that clear I guess I failed 🤔 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JustLurking said: I don't necessarily disagree with this, but the notion that a lot of midrange blockbusters would've opened over 100 and legged out over 5x I'm not really sure I agree with. Nor do I necessarily agree with the nominal number being "completely meaningless" since inflation does drive up the numbers but audience trends over the years drive down the admits and you can't entirely separate one from the other. Not a lot like hundreds and hundreds or anything. Maybe a dozen or two per decade? You need something that had over 3.5x or so legs at least and an 2022 OW equivalent which is substantially above 100M because switching it to a dec date would deflate the OW. The legs are clearly a great feat! — it’s just that the “2nd best evah to meat this nominal cutoff” framing leaves a bit to be desired. And yeah as far as “would movie X have opened to 100M+ in dec 22 environment” there is a bit more to think about than just gross/natl atp for the year but if you do spend the time handling it more sophisticatedly you’re going to get the same results with maybe like 10-20% fewer movies that qualify. Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: yes, i was giving a demonstration using legion's words... I tried to make that clear I guess I failed 🤔 So that makes it okay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, Deep Wang said: So that makes it okay? Yes as it can be inferred I was not being serious in what I said, a sort of joke in a way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said: Not a lot like hundreds and hundreds or anything. Maybe a dozen or two per decade? You need something that had over 3.5x or so legs at least and an 2022 OW equivalent which is substantially above 100M because switching it to a dec date would deflate the OW. The legs are clearly a great feat! — it’s just that the “2nd best evah” framing leaves a bit to be desired. And yeah as far as “would movie X have opened to 100M+ in dec 22 environment” there is a bit more to think about than just gross/natl atp for the year but if you do spend the time handling it more sophisticatedly you’re going to get the same results with maybe like 10-20% fewer movies that qualify. Considering you need a base minimum gross of 500M for this, and the 2010s only have a very limited amount of those that could've fit the description, "a dozen or two" feels very much unlikely to me. Obviously adjusting you can grab a much wider selection but how much wider is very up for debate (if you tell me some, idk, 300M grosser from 2012 would gross 500 in december 2022, that is a very debatable statement to me), but this "what if?" would require way more than a simple atp adjustment to work and I would need a much more thorough analysis to convince me it would be such a common feat frankly speaking. I'm sure it wouldn't be second but I don't exactly think it would be 10th+ like you seem to be implying either. Edited January 13, 2023 by JustLurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, JustLurking said: Considering you need a base minimum gross of 500M for this, and the 2010s only have a very limited amount of those that could've fit the description, "a dozen or two" feels very much unlikely to me. Obviously adjusting you can grab a much wider selection but how much wider is very up for debate, but this "what if?" would require way more than a simple atp adjustment to work and I would need a much more thorough analysis to convince me it would be such a common feat frankly speaking. I'm sure it wouldn't be second but I don't exactly think it would be 10th+ like you seem to be implying either. Oh it would almost certainly be outside the first 25 movies released which would have done it with this date imo. Adjusting grabs you a MUCH wider selections. If you give me a rough sense of how much OW penalty you think apples on the date and how much legs boost I could probably find you 10 pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, Firepower said: What the hell is going on here? What happened?! It's time for doomsayers to see the light because Avatwo went 200-300k below their expectations on a Thursday They will go back to dark in a few hours once Friday numbers come in 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Soooooo, (to lighten the mood here and change the subject) how bout dem Cowboys? Oh wait, football jokes are not likely to work on a movies forum... Ummm, may the force be with you today! (There, that should work)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said: Oh it would almost certainly be outside the first 25 movies released which would have done it with this date imo. Adjusting grabs you a MUCH wider selections. If you give me a rough sense of how much OW penalty you think apples on the date and how much legs boost I could probably find you 10 pretty fast. Seems like a fun exercise but don't really have the time to think about it properly rn since I'm going out and won't be back till tonight (though not sure I even have the knowledge to make the proper assumptions). To clarify though the 10th bit was only making the adjustments with 2010s films since you said a dozen or two for decade so I just had a quick glance over the easiest decade to adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexdube Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said: AWOW has the good fortune to be the only December movie outside of SW/MCU to open “above 100M” in dec, which drives this particular silly stat. But the “above 100M” line is completely meaningless as a cutoff since it’s heavily affected by inflation. There are lots of movies that would have opened over 100M on this date and legged over 5, but avatar happens to be the first because of inflation+not getting a lot of December’s per year+recent tendency to put the fan monsters here rather than more midrange blockbusters. Okay so what are those movies? Give us a list of movies you think are superior to A2 in the sense of relatively strong opening to great legs Edited January 13, 2023 by Alexdube 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, JustLurking said: Seems like a fun exercise but don't really have the time to think about it properly rn since I'm going out and won't be back till tonight (though not sure I even have the knowledge to make the proper assumptions). To clarify though the 10th bit was only making the adjustments with 2010s films since you said a dozen or two for decade so I just had a quick glance over the easiest decade to adjust. Ahh gotcha, yeah may be 10ish among 2010s, haven’t taken a super close look myself (it’s on the docket but so is a lot of stuff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
setna Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 16 hours ago, Brainbug said: Maybe E.T.? When it comes to not dropping or increasing for weeks and weeks, those two are similar. Yeah, of course. I wanted to say in the last 25 years. In the 80´s many movies were very leggy althiugh not a the same level of success and numbres than Titanic. With the data we have, in the last 50 years, the only comparable runs to Titanic are Star Wars and E.T., long long time ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corngrower87 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, setna said: Yeah, of course. I wanted to say in the last 25 years. In the 80´s many movies were very leggy althiugh not a the same level of success and numbres than Titanic. With the data we have, in the last 50 years, the only comparable runs to Titanic are Star Wars and E.T., long long time ago... And Titanic is closer to those two in time than we are to Titanic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Tokugennumataka said: I wouldn't say very low Sat jump. Almost all films have MLK Sat bump lower than the previous week's (for obvious reasons). Last week was +81%, so +80% this week is reasonable (borderline high end) I'd say. Well, not in 2017 at least. MLK sat bumps were much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
