Borobudur Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Fanboy said: Sherlock Holmes 2 has been a good comparison for weekend drop percentages. Avatar 2 should at least be doing close to 4M today but maybe the weather in California is affecting it again. See how everything else goes with Monday. I was right in saying the winter storm was significantly impacting pre-Xmas numbers. I also believe the later winter break is part of the equation. It seem like schools across significant part of the country wasn't really out until Dec 22 or Dec 23 and that is why they end latter this year. That boosted the mid-week number quite substantially last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fanboy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Borobudur said: I also believe the later winter break is part of the equation. It seem like schools across significant part of the country wasn't really out until Dec 22 or Dec 23 and that is why they end latter this year. That boosted the mid-week number quite substantially last week. .Obviously with the calendar lineup numbers not being strong had some effect, but December 21-24 were its weakest looking days compared to Rogue One and that was almost entirely due to snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Still 44% over NWH equivalent Monday. The 5th WE should be in the $30-35M range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 45M 4 day is the target for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 In an ideal world, Avatar does 40M+ over the 4 Days next weekend, Puss in Boots has another Weekend that grosses more on the Fri-Sun frame than it did on OW and Megan doesnt drop but increases. Its Tuesday, life is beautiful and we are allowed to dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Off a ~$3.4 Monday, I've got: $4.8/$3.6/$3.6 // $7.5/$14/$10.5/$8 For a $32-33M 3-day (9x), ~$40M 4-day (11x+). Really going to have to feast on Sat/Sun (+Tue), but 3 weeks of NFL Playoffs & Super Bowl will likely apply some downward pressure on those days, before Titanic steals PLFs and Quantamania steals its thunder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 So Avatar 2 ended the weekend around $50 million ahead of TGM. It should still be around $45 million ahead of TGM after MLK Day. But boy did TGM have some godlike June and July weekdays. It will start cutting A2's margin by $10m+ every week after MLK. What are the odds Avatar holds on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tokugennumataka Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 So I guess the question remains... which will get to 660M first, Titanic or Avatar 2? My current calculations roughly place them both the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 For Puss in Boots, this past weekend was ~36% of JWTJ and ~65% of Sing. Its been running much closer to the Jumanji track through the run, which would project the total out to ~$145M, but even following Sing from here gets to $130M+. With the good WOM and absolute lack of family competition, still think it has a shot at $150M+ Either way, should be looking at 25-30% drop for the 3-day weekend ($9.5-$10.2), and <10% drop for the 4-day ($12.2M+) which could very well beat its OW of $12.4M (from a Wednesday opening and included XMas Eve & Day) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tokugennumataka Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 This is one of the best calendar setups M3GAN could ask for. Word of mouth is solid. Friday being the 13th should provide a nice boost and Sunday drop will be mellowed. Can see 18M+ for 3 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corngrower87 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 30 minutes ago, Agafin said: So Avatar 2 ended the weekend around $50 million ahead of TGM. It should still be around $45 million ahead of TGM after MLK Day. But boy did TGM have some godlike June and July weekdays. It will start cutting A2's margin by $10m+ every week after MLK. What are the odds Avatar holds on? Plus don’t forget that TGM had a 4th of July weekend boost. We won’t be at the equivalent stage of Avatar’s calendar for another couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Speaking of TITANIC... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said: This is one of the best calendar setups M3GAN could ask for. Word of mouth is solid. Friday being the 13th should provide a nice boost and Sunday drop will be mellowed. Can see 18M+ for 3 day. Don't think it will pull a Smile 2nd weekend, word got out too quickly and helped push up the OW (plus no Hurricane Ian), but if it were to match Barbarian's Sat/Sat 2nd week drop of -35%, then wouldn't rule out $20M for the 3-day with the boost on both Fri and Sun. Probably better to set expectations more in line with Scream & Nope with -45%-ish Sat, and see if it can beat that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said: Speaking of TITANIC... I dont see imax anywhere good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corngrower87 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said: Speaking of TITANIC... Very much looking forward to seeing this in the cinema again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, M37 said: Off a ~$3.4 Monday, I've got: $4.8/$3.6/$3.6 // $7.5/$14/$10.5/$8 For a $32-33M 3-day (9x), ~$40M 4-day (11x+). Only a couple percent better drop than last week where it came off a holiday weekend? Even with playoffs i think it'll be more like -20% for 3-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spazz91 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Trying to look at comps from last year to see effect of CFB championship game, and I realize there are too many Monday holidays in these months, it difficult to pull a trend. But looking at Mondays last year, Jan 10 (CFB) and Jan 24, (Jan 17 being MLK), the drops look fairly similar between the days. I don't know how much the popularity of CFB ebbs and flows year-to-year though, or if this year was a more popular game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corngrower87 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: I dont see imax anywhere good Atom tickets has it listed as “an IMAX event.” There are a few other theaters listing it as on their IMAX release schedule. I think it’s safe to say it will at least get some PLFs… https://www.atomtickets.com/movies/titanic-25-year-anniversary-an-imax-3d-experience/338123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Elessar said: Only a couple percent better drop than last week where it came off a holiday weekend? Even with playoffs i think it'll be more like -20% for 3-day. That’s fine … just show me the math that gets you to $37-38M for -20%? I’ve already penciled in a higher Wed & Thur than current Mon estimate (which would be anomaly) and a pretty healthy 9x for 3-day from there. Could see a bit higher in $34-$35 range, but above that is pushing it IMO from that stating value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex SciChannel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Puss in Boots O/U 650K Monday? O/U 700K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
