MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Tokugennumataka]

1.08M for Puss. Don't think conventional family film bumps apply here, but still should still match the Jumanji films' multis (13.3x Thu). That'd good enough for 14.4M (+6%!!!). Worst case it stays flat. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekend above OW. Unironically looks like The Greatest Showman of animated films. 

[YM!]

To be honest, if Puss increases or is flat this weekend, we need to stop talking about if 150m+ is possible and if Universal will fudge it 200m+. 
 

Very good chance it gets to 130m at the end of January, will be around 170m-175m by February if it continues to have TGS or Sing 2 like holds and could cross high 180s by end of March

[Brainbug]

Ok i swear i wont make any plane-puns anymore.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Brainbug

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

His movies do well on streaming though.

 

Greenland was very popular on streaming.

Plane is very much in the Butler disposable action flick, adjusted for post-pandemic market weakness, range:

 

Geostorm = $13.7/$33.7

Gods of Egypt = $14.1/$33.1

[efialtes76]

4 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

His movies do well on streaming though.

 

Greenland was very popular on streaming.

 

I remember the film flopped in theaters but made a lot of money after theaters. 

 

Thing about Butler is his films can be very basic but he is fun to watch in a film.

Greenland wasn't released Domestic and did $52M Overseas with a 35M budget.

Not bad at all for a drama released on August-October of 2020.

 

 

 

[Torontofan]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Greenland literally never played in American theaters at all. Pandemic and all that.

 

True but it made like 80 million in profits due to being a huge streaming hit.

 

(also helped there was like no films for months, there was literally no mvoes to watch in 2020 lol)

Edited January 13, 2023 by Torontofan

[Brainbug]

Just now, YM! said:

To be honest, if Puss increases or is flat this weekend, we need to stop talking about if 150m+ is possible and if Universal will fudge it 200m+. 
 

Very good chance it gets to 130m at the end of January, will be around 170m-175m by February if it continues to have TGS or Sing 2 like holds and could cross high 180s by end of March

 

Do we know when Puss hits VOD? That will probably be its death sentence, but as long as it is only on PVOD, it will thrive.

[YM!]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Do we know when Puss hits VOD? That will probably be its death sentence, but as long as it is only on PVOD, it will thrive.

VOD/Peacock hasn’t really effected the Universal stuff mainly because people don’t use Peacock like they do other streamers. Probably 45 days, so early to mid February.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

VOD/Peacock hasn’t really effected the Universal stuff mainly because people don’t use Peacock like they do other streamers. Probably 45 days, so early to mid February.

 

Thats great news (atleast for me, i somehow thought Peacock was more used). If Puss really manages to increase this weekend, im on the 160M+ train. 200M i dont see quite yet, but its run has been amazing so far.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Brainbug

[CJohn]

Geostorm did 187M OS, holy fucking shit.

[CoolioD1]

PLANE. the title of the movie and also where most people will watch it. 

[Dale Cooper]

I am just gonna write whatever I wrote in the other thread here instead.

 

It's all fine to try and downplay A2's legs. But doing so while comparing it to Sherlock 2, a movie that opened almost $100m less, is just as a skewed look as equating Christmas legs to summer legs. They're clearly not really comparable. If we, for example, look at Fellowship of the Ring, one of the best movies ever made, their first weeks multis will probably be very close. That one clearly had pretty incredible legs.

 

As for the long list of movies doing 5x multi with over 100m OW, I think this is operating under a couple of assumptions that aren't necessarily true. The first being that movies gross more overall if they're released with this slot, which is highly contestable. The second being that OW is considerably deflated, which clearly is true for the majority of movies but evidently not all of them (NWH and Force Awakens being two obvious example, even I Am Legend serves as one).

 

There's certainly exists potential $100m openers which would have been able to pull it off, but I don't think they're that many.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

1.08M for Puss. Don't think conventional family film bumps apply here, but still should still match the Jumanji films' multis (13.3x Thu). That'd good enough for 14.4M (+6%!!!). Worst case it stays flat. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekend above OW. Unironically looks like The Greatest Showman of animated films. 

Like you, I've penciled in a Jumanji weekend pattern here, but I'm very curious to see if that verifies. Even Ghostbusters (in a much later/weaker part of the run) had a 12.56x Thursday (+188%/+99%/-31%) on this weekend last year - can't see if going too much below that, even if pattern is slightly different (worse Fri, better Sun)

 

A $3M Fri (+178%) probably locks in a flat 3-day weekend

[Torontofan]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Geostorm did 187M OS, holy fucking shit.

 

Disaster movies also have huge replay on TV and streaming I noticed.

 

Like i see disasters movies play all the time on TV and its seems everone i know see them eventually vs some random comedy etc.

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

1.08M for Puss. Don't think conventional family film bumps apply here, but still should still match the Jumanji films' multis (13.3x Thu). That'd good enough for 14.4M (+6%!!!). Worst case it stays flat. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekend above OW. Unironically looks like The Greatest Showman of animated films. 

Have been gravitating more toward TCON:TLTWaTW since the crazy dailies this week. Fri and sat will tell us where it falls on the spectrum of live action family vs more pure kiddie animation behavior.

[CJohn]

Just rewatched the Geostorm trailer. Man, what a cast. What a movie. What a ride. Hollywood just doesn't make them like this anymore. This was so fucking awesome.

[Krissykins]

That’s especially rubbish for Plane if those $5 tickets could be used on Thursday as well. 
 

M3gan down only -6% on Thursday. Nice. It has tripled its production budget in 7 days in one country. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Krissykins

[efialtes76]

27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Geostorm did 187M OS, holy fucking shit.

1/3+ from China...

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s especially rubbish for Plane if those $5 tickets could be used on Thursday as well. 
 

M3gan down only -6% on Thursday. Nice. It has tripled its production budget in 7 days in one country. 

 

They could, but if you're appealing to the male 13+ market (yes, I know it's R, but this is a male 13+ type R), most had work or school today.  It's why my boys waited til today for our $5 tickets (and why date night is today).  Thursday doesn't work with learning on Friday...

[efialtes76]

26 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Have been gravitating more toward TCON:TLTWaTW since the crazy dailies this week. Fri and sat will tell us where it falls on the spectrum of live action family vs more pure kiddie animation behavior.

TCON:TLTWaTW?🤔