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Shawn Robbins

MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

I am just gonna write whatever I wrote in the other thread here instead.

 

It's all fine to try and downplay A2's legs. But doing so while comparing it to Sherlock 2, a movie that opened almost $100m less, is just as a skewed look as equating Christmas legs to summer legs. They're clearly not really comparable. If we, for example, look at Fellowship of the Ring, one of the best movies ever made, their first weeks multis will probably be very close. That one clearly had pretty incredible legs.

 

As for the long list of movies doing 5x multi with over 100m OW, I think this is operating under a couple of assumptions that aren't necessarily true. The first being that movies gross more overall if they're released with this slot, which is highly contestable. The second being that OW is considerably deflated, which clearly is true for the majority of movies but evidently not all of them (NWH and Force Awakens being two obvious example, even I Am Legend serves as one).

 

There's certainly exists potential $100m openers which would have been able to pull it off, but I don't think they're that many.

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Saw the mod post just after I hit submit, but I spent some time on this, so leaving it up.

 

In regards to the legs debate, here are how some tiles measure in total DOM vs first 7 days (OWeek)

 

Notable Big Movies

  • Black Panther = 2.398x (holiday Mon)
  • RO = 2.397x (Xmas)
  • TFA = 2.396x (Xmas)
  • Avengers = 2.31x
  • Dark Knight = 2.24x

 

Notable December

  • Avatar = 5.469x (!!!)
  • Jumanji WTJ = 4.55x (Wed before Xmas)
  • Jumanji TNL = 4.23x
  • LOTR: FotR = 3.33x
  • Aquaman = 3.18x (Wed before Xmas)
  • Sherlock 2 = 3.18x
  • Hobbit: UJ = 2.68x
  • NWH = 2.09x

 

Post-Pandemic, >$150M

  • TGM = 3.49x (!!!)
  • Elvis = 3.13x
  • Sing 2 = 2.97x (Wed before Xmas)
  • Minions = 2.24x
  • Batman = 2.14x
  • NTTD = 2.14x

 

Outside of December, hitting 2.2x (or even 2.1x) is considered really good legs for a top level opening (Shang-Chi was 2.13x, for example). But for  December debuts, both the holiday boost and the fact that people don't rush out as quickly knowing they have a 3-week window helps to inflate OW/OWeek ratios so much more than the rest of the year (especially true for the Wed before Xmas openings). Look no further than BP and RO, nearly identical numerically, even though no one would reasonably argue that they both had good/similar legs. For bigger openings, TGM is the non-December equivalent of OG Avatar

 

Avatwo is going to clear 3x, might even approach or technically beat TGM at 3.5x ... but for December openings, that's on par with/slightly head of Sherlock 2, (which coincidentally opened on the same Fri 12/16 calendar configuration in 2011). Make of those legs what you will

 

To answer both you and @MikeQ here, let me clarify a couple of points:

 

1. We as an analytic group really really need to move away from OW multis and switch to OWeek, to help balance out disparity in seasons, where business can be squeezed into a weekend or spread out over the full week. A film opening in summer or right as holiday break hits is going to see a naturally deflated OW as compared to something opening in middle of school year, and using that OW figure as the denominator skews the comparative ratios (OWeek isn't perfect either, but its much closer to an even playing field)

 

2. On top of that, December with the date-specific holidays and how the business pattern flows is itself an anomaly that straight comping even OWeek multis to other times of the year is skewed. Even comping to other December releases can be heavily skewed, depending on when Christmas falls in those first 7-14 days. Because there are so many nuances to December openings, where the calendar alone influences the pattern and results: did Xmas Eve and/day fall in the OWeek, was it early/pre-break December with lower weekdays, was it the big tentpole burning off demand through Xmas or a second tier release that gained steam after, and so on.

 

3. For Avatar specifically, I wasn't making a direct comp to Sherlock 2, that's just where the numbers landed (again, coincidentally with the same calendar). There isn't another at least 7 days before Christmas, Friday opening that even lands in that range! There are so many asterisks with this release that I think trying to rank its legs with precision, beyond a non specific "good to very good legs" is a fools errand

 

Here's the full  (unsorted) data set I have collected of openings between 12/14 & 12/22 and their corresponding OWeek multis, and if someone can make definitive conclusions about the relationship between the DOM/OWeek ratio and reception/WOM, than you are smarter than I

 

JtrkMzC.png

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Tokugennumataka Sleeper Hit

Tokugennumataka

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

I am 99% confident that Menor and Tokugennumataka’s most recent acronyms are *literally* just made up.

Hey I did a Google search and everything. I'm methodical like that...

 


Night of the Day of the Dawn of the Son of the Bride of the Return of the Revenge of the Terror of the Attack of the Evil, Mutant, Hellbound, Flesh-Eating Subhumanoid Zombified Living Dead, Part 2: In Shocking 2-D (1991)

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Hey I did a Google search and everything. I'm methodical like that...

 


Night of the Day of the Dawn of the Son of the Bride of the Return of the Revenge of the Terror of the Attack of the Evil, Mutant, Hellbound, Flesh-Eating Subhumanoid Zombified Living Dead, Part 2: In Shocking 2-D (1991)

You get full credit. I apologize and bow to your acronymic mastery

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

FTR:

 

Another Violent Nude Guest Enters King Charles' Nearest Jeweled Room: Getting Jealous of Lackadasically Locked but Guarded Special Houses

Lose Willy Wonka GIF

Edited by Legion in Boots
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Just remembered how wild B:CLoAFMBGNOK run was.
Too bad we missed BSM:DoPBtARfMBOGNoK run 
 

Big Scary Monster: Department of Phoenix Battle to Azeroth Run for More Big Orange Gravy Nuggets of Knowledge

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Dale Cooper Indie Sensation

Dale Cooper

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

To answer both you and @MikeQ here, let me clarify a couple of points:

 

1. We as an analytic group really really need to move away from OW multis and switch to OWeek, to help balance out disparity in seasons, where business can be squeezed into a weekend or spread out over the full week. A film opening in summer or right as holiday break hits is going to see a naturally deflated OW as compared to something opening in middle of school year, and using that OW figure as the denominator skews the comparative ratios (OWeek isn't perfect either, but its much closer to an even playing field)

 

2. On top of that, December with the date-specific holidays and how the business pattern flows is itself an anomaly that straight comping even OWeek multis to other times of the year is skewed. Even comping to other December releases can be heavily skewed, depending on when Christmas falls in those first 7-14 days. Because there are so many nuances to December openings, where the calendar alone influences the pattern and results: did Xmas Eve and/day fall in the OWeek, was it early/pre-break December with lower weekdays, was it the big tentpole burning off demand through Xmas or a second tier release that gained steam after, and so on.

 

3. For Avatar specifically, I wasn't making a direct comp to Sherlock 2, that's just where the numbers landed (again, coincidentally with the same calendar). There isn't another at least 7 days before Christmas, Friday opening that even lands in that range! There are so many asterisks with this release that I think trying to rank its legs with precision, beyond a non specific "good to very good legs" is a fools errand

 

Here's the full  (unsorted) data set I have collected of openings between 12/14 & 12/22 and their corresponding OWeek multis, and if someone can make definitive conclusions about the relationship between the DOM/OWeek ratio and reception/WOM, than you are smarter than I

 

JtrkMzC.png

I am all for looking at Opening Weeks and all, but even looking at this nice graph it will land in the top 3 (discounting Alvin as it isn't really a relevant comparision). Aquaman's also is wrong, but that movie had premiere so close to Christmas it's hard to compare, although it probably would have been comfortably under 3 multi if it opened a week before.

 

Anyway, to me it looks like it will be right around Fellowship of the Ring which is really, really good materless of premiere slot. Fellowship certainly had great legs itself. Looking at the graph it also seems to be centered around 2.5 (+-½) with a few upward outliers, where A2 sort of will be one of them.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

I am all for looking at Opening Weeks and all, but even looking at this nice graph it will land in the top 3 (discounting Alvin as it isn't really a relevant comparision). Aquaman's also is wrong, but that movie had premiere so close to Christmas it's hard to compare, although it probably would have been comfortably under 3 multi if it opened a week before.

 

Anyway, to me it looks like it will be right around Fellowship of the Ring which is really, really good materless of premiere slot. Fellowship certainly had great legs itself. Looking at the graph it also seems to be centered around 2.5 (+-½) with a few upward outliers, where A2 sort of will be one of them.

Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)

 

If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?

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