MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Firepower]

Kings

[Elessar]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Kings

 

King

[Ronin46]

Deadline

 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: As expected, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water remains number one again in its fifth weekend with an MLK four-day take of $35M after a $7M Friday, -39% at 4,045 sites. 3-day looks to be around $27M-$28M, -40%.

That will get the James Cameron sequel to $566.7M at the domestic box office by EOD Monday, passing The Dark Knight ($534.9M) and Jon Favreau’s The Lion King ($543.6M) to become the 13th highest grossing movie of all-time in U.S Canada. By Monday, the movie will have been in theaters for 32 days. At that point in time a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home had already crossed the $700M threshold.

 

 

Avatar 2 has all the premium formats (Dolby, Imax, PLFs) again this weekend. They’ll cede Dolby auditoriums when Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin hits theaters on Feb. 3.

Strong in second is Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN with a $5M second Friday, -57%, a 3-day of $17.5M, -42%, and a 4-day of $20.7M taking the pic’s 11-day running total to $59.2M.

Puss in Boots: The Last WishUniversal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection

Universal also has bragging rights with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,641 theaters: The DreamWorks Animation title will fly past the century mark by Monday with $105.9M. The pic’s fourth Friday is $2.4M, -29% 3-day $10M (-26%) and 4-day $13M.

 

A promising sign this weekend: Sony’s A Man Called Otto is looking to beat its $8M 4-day expectations and actually provide a pulse for older skewing movies. The pic’s expanded Friday to 3,802 theaters is $3.4M with an outlook in third of $11M-$12M over four days. The pic’s running by Monday looks to stand at $18.2M. That’s exceedingly better than what Babylon did in its 4-day Christmas weekend ($3.6M) and Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M). Audiences on Rotten Tomatoes always liked Otto better than critics, 97% to 69% fresh. The movie cost $50M before P&A, co financed by SF and TSG.

 

Fifth belongs to Lionsgate’s Plane which is looking at a $3M Friday, $9.5M 4-day, the latter within its expectation. The comp for the Gerard Butler title is Universal’s Ambulance which posted a 3-day of $8.7M. Plane is between $8.4M-$8.9M over 3 days. The last notable early winter meat and potato guy action film was pre-pandemic, Guy Ritche’s The Gentleman which opened to $10.6M and legged out in January 2020 to a 3.4 multiple from STX with $36.4M.

[Legion Again]

That would be yokes for puss but it!s just early deadline so 🤞

[Krissykins]

51 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Friday the 13th effect is real. Expecting a softer Saturday jump because of it.

Even if it has a +35% Saturday instead of let’s say Escape Room’s +47%, it’ll still get over $20m for the 4 day. I think it’ll get it. Great hold. 
 

 

I actually think that’s ok for Otto and Plane too. Would be better if Plan got to $10m 4 day though. 

[Alex SciChannel]

Copy and pasting this from the weekly thread to this one.

 

My prediction for PiB weekend 4 3-day. I tried to factor in football days so I gave smaller boosts and larger drops for Saturday and Sunday when compared to my comps (TGS, Sing 2, Jumanji WTTJ).

 

Friday: $2.475M (+130%)

Saturday: $3.836M (+55%)

Sunday: $2.877M (-25%)

 

3-day total: $9.188M (-32.1%)

Domestic total: $102.158M

 

Is it too conservative? Is it too bullish? Idk lemme know please. As seen from my dailies goals and predictions I tend to sandbag them as Jason Blum calls it.

Edited January 14, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Flip]

deadline lowballing (hopefully) as usual

[efialtes76]

Deadline numbers are useless.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Deadline numbers are useless.

 

I feel like fridays are pretty usefull. And they are often some of the earliest numbers so i'd give them some slack.

Edited January 14, 2023 by Elessar

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

That would be yokes for puss but it!s just early deadline so 🤞

Still a damn strong hold, just not what we had high hopes for. Most family films for MLK drop around 35-40%.

[Flip]

If Avatar really is a weekend movie, the only way it manages to jump less than NWH (7.2m equals NWH's jump) is if it has truly burned off that much demand, and if so, 700m looks to be fading away

[Sophia Jane]

Fri:7.5m

Sat:15m

Sun:14m

Mon:8m

4-days weekend:44.5m

DL always report low number

Edited January 14, 2023 by Bruce

[Flip]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

Still a damn strong hold, just not what we had high hopes for. Most family films for MLK drop around 35-40%.

yeah maybe expectations were too high because this would still be a better drop than Sing 2 (31%)

[Flip]

1 minute ago, Bruce said:

Fri:7.5m

Sat:15m

Sun:14m

Mon:8m

4-days weekend:44.5m

DL always report low number

i dont think any blockbuster has ever fell just 6% on MLK Sunday, the drop at best will be around 20-25%. Also last year NWH jumped 66% from Friday to Saturday, Avatar isn't jumping 100%

[todos]

In 5+ hours, if someone posts 

8.5 I’d not be shocked and if they typed 4.9, I still wouldn’t be surprised. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by todos

[ando]

With Deadline saying early $7M I'm hopeful it will be higher. Satisfied with $7.5M. 

[Alex SciChannel]

I'm actually satisfied with all the numbers from Deadline this time. I wouldn't be mad if they came true

[Jiffy]

$7.5m wouldn't be bad... it would be nice if it at least had a better 3-day hold than last weekend, though.

[KGPatt2]

Well, that's disappointing. I was hoping for a better hold.

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

Deadline

 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: As expected, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water remains number one again in its fifth weekend with an MLK four-day take of $35M after a $7M Friday, -39% at 4,045 sites. 3-day looks to be around $27M-$28M, -40%.

That will get the James Cameron sequel to $566.7M at the domestic box office by EOD Monday, passing The Dark Knight ($534.9M) and Jon Favreau’s The Lion King ($543.6M) to become the 13th highest grossing movie of all-time in U.S Canada. By Monday, the movie will have been in theaters for 32 days. At that point in time a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home had already crossed the $700M threshold.

 

 

Avatar 2 has all the premium formats (Dolby, Imax, PLFs) again this weekend. They’ll cede Dolby auditoriums when Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin hits theaters on Feb. 3.

Strong in second is Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN with a $5M second Friday, -57%, a 3-day of $17.5M, -42%, and a 4-day of $20.7M taking the pic’s 11-day running total to $59.2M.

Puss in Boots: The Last WishUniversal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection

Universal also has bragging rights with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,641 theaters: The DreamWorks Animation title will fly past the century mark by Monday with $105.9M. The pic’s fourth Friday is $2.4M, -29% 3-day $10M (-26%) and 4-day $13M.

 

A promising sign this weekend: Sony’s A Man Called Otto is looking to beat its $8M 4-day expectations and actually provide a pulse for older skewing movies. The pic’s expanded Friday to 3,802 theaters is $3.4M with an outlook in third of $11M-$12M over four days. The pic’s running by Monday looks to stand at $18.2M. That’s exceedingly better than what Babylon did in its 4-day Christmas weekend ($3.6M) and Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M). Audiences on Rotten Tomatoes always liked Otto better than critics, 97% to 69% fresh. The movie cost $50M before P&A, co financed by SF and TSG.

 

Fifth belongs to Lionsgate’s Plane which is looking at a $3M Friday, $9.5M 4-day, the latter within its expectation. The comp for the Gerard Butler title is Universal’s Ambulance which posted a 3-day of $8.7M. Plane is between $8.4M-$8.9M over 3 days. The last notable early winter meat and potato guy action film was pre-pandemic, Guy Ritche’s The Gentleman which opened to $10.6M and legged out in January 2020 to a 3.4 multiple from STX with $36.4M.

Gentlemen only opened to $10.6M??? I suppose that makes me feel a little better about Plane's gross and other low grosses in general if something like that opened to those kind of numbers pre-pandemic.