MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Plane was solid actually. It's a draft away from an absolute banger but it's probably top-tier Gerard Butler (low bar or not) and does what it needs to do. Solid action programmer along the lines of the ones Liam Neeson used to bang out in the early-mid 2010s

 

Will see Skinamarink today. Any numbers reported yet? Maybe double it with House Party and then catch the night games?

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Looks like it truly is simply running out of steam. Oh well, it has had a fantastic run up until now, and a $650M finish is still nothing to scoff at.

 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

Either way it will be close. I can't see A2 finishing under 640 and the max is probably in the 680's. 

[Firepower]

28 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

What an ugly ass number.

[M37]

17 minutes ago, YM! said:

coughcoughcough 

Let's not get crazy now. Puss is on track for ~$17M this week, for a $110M total. On MLK Week, Jumanji WTJ made $40.8M, then another $107.6M after, for a 2.64x

 

Tacking JWTJ - from a lower starting value but slightly better holding rate - would get to ~$155M. Lack of competition can improve those legs, but the starting value is low, and even a Greatest Showman (a $19.7M MLK week) run from here "only" gets to ~$170M

 

 

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

It's probably trending towards your worst nightmare scenario - Avatar 2 narrowly above Jurassic World by $10-$25m.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

It's probably trending towards your worst nightmare scenario - Avatar 2 narrowly above Jurassic World by $10-$25m.

The actually best scenario is exactly 1 dollar above JW though.

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

Either way it will be close. I can't see A2 finishing under 640 and the max is probably in the 680's. 

Mostly agree - finally have enough data IMO to really start to hone in on the final range. Really difficult to see it netting less than TFA from this point ($110M, $55.5M last week vs $60 for Avatwo, plus less competition), but the downward turn over the last couple of days makes me less optimistic for these next few "open runway" weeks

 

I'm at like $640-$670M, expecting to it finish in the ~$650 JW/Titantic range (before the latter adds to the total in February

 

Really O/U JW is the only open question left @Brainbug

[Cheddar Please]

My question is whether A2 will ever catch Titanic anytime in its run

[CJohn]

This is all very disappointing. Avatar should be doing 40M+ 4 day, not 35M.

 

Plane and Otto are huge bombs.

 

Bless Queen M3GAN I guess. Gonna end up with 90M or so.

[todos]

TGM is going down one way or another. 
This movie is playing until July. NWH (pre-re-release) was in theaters till early June.

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, todos said:

TGM is going down one way or another. 
This movie is playing until July. NWH (pre-re-release) was in theaters till early June.

In that case what is the math on your end?

[kayumanggi]

 

[stuart360]

17 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

Either way it will be close. I can't see A2 finishing under 640 and the max is probably in the 680's. 

I agree with your high end but i still think it can get to 700mil

The film should be around 600mil after next weekend, and next weekend will probably be i would think around 20-22mil or so.

So it woul;d need nearly 5X legs of a 20-22mil weekend to get to 700.

 

Pretty hard for sure, but if it can get some decent weekly holds, it can still get there imo.

[Grebacio]

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

My question is whether A2 will ever catch Titanic anytime in its run

Seems pretty unlikely, needs another $128M in the next 3 weeks before re-release, and looks to be losing steam, lows $40s week here

 

A mid $30s 3-day would have made it quite the race, but if Avatwo does get to that $659 total it’s probably in late Feb or even March 

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is all very disappointing. Avatar should be doing 40M+ 4 day, not 35M.

 

 

It shouldnt be far off.

7

13-14

10

9

39-40mil.

 

If Friday ends up 7.5-8 with actuals, it can easily do over 40mil.

[Skim Beeble]

3.5 for Plane, maybe it can hit double digits for it's 3-day after all.